All Forum Posts by: Arlen Chou

@Jay Hinrichs you are 100% correct. Uber freight has been doing runs in AZ for a large part of 2018. Local drivers just pull the loads to a transfer hub and pass it off to a long haul driverless truck.  There is a "safety" driver in the long haul cab, but you know that the sleep/rest rules cannot be the same for them vs. current long haul drivers.  Also you know as they gather safety data and tech gets better the "safety" drivers will eventually be gone.

@Account Closed. You should try and get to one or both of these and talk to people real time.

Good luck!

@Marisa R. not to rain on your party, but there are actually quit a few indicators of rough waters ahead. I am not saying a recession is immanent, but I would say that it is more important to be watching the signs now than a year or two ago.

1. Job numbers: It is really important to keep in mind that job numbers only take into account the number of people who are actively looking for jobs and seeking unemployment benefits.  Benefits typically only pay out 26 weeks.  After that point a person can try to extend but not always.  The point being that there is no mechanism to track people who have fallen out of the benefit window. I suspect that there is a large unseen number of people who are out of the window and are living with family and perhaps doing side work that is not easily traced.
2. There has not been a major "job creation" breakthrough in technology in several years.  As an example the Iphone has had several feature additions, but there has not been any real leap in the technology that makes it significantly better than what was available before. An example of a real leap was going from flip phones to smart phones.
3. The new technologies that are coming online are actually efficiency based and could potentially drive people out of jobs. A very good example of this is the trucking industry. There are 3.5 million truckers in the US alone. Tesla and several other companies are actively developing self driving trucks. The potential cost savings of getting rid of drivers for the trucking industry is HUGE. This also does not take into account the number of taxi drivers that will get displaced by self driving cars or the number of Lyft/Uber drivers who will no longer have a side gig. Grocery stores like Whole Foods are already going to cashierless stores. The next wave of technology will be driving lower skilled people out of the workforce. Also the Amazon effect is real and will only get larger as people become accustomed to buying more things online. The ripple effect on "brick and mortar" stores is everywhere.

Again I am not saying it is all doom and gloom.  I am saying that the analysis about the direction of the economy should be more in depth then just the posted GDP numbers and the job figures. 

With that being said, I am still looking to buy this year.

Hello @Eliza Pelham Randall and @Lindsay Ferlin, just as an FYI there is a meet up next Wednesday, hosted by @Brenda Chen and a few others. You should check it out if you have time.

@Torre Samonek if you interested in getting your side hustle going I have a small interior renovation in North Oakland that I have coming online. PM me if you have any interest.

@Makala Lee-Norwood thank you for your honest reply about your interest in real estate, it really does help in getting you better feedback from the group. REI is not something you want to start half cocked, shysters and bad tenants will eat you alive locally or out of state. By definition, any action you take is a start, so by coming on to the forum you have already started with your $5000, you just have not spent any money.

You will not be able to buy anything in the immediate Bay Area with $5k in your pocket, that is just a straight up fact. You SHOULD NOT buy anything out of state with $5k in your pocket, that is just my opinion.  Be very careful with your money, the majority of people on BP are great and share info and advice for free, but there are some sharks in these waters so keep your guard up. 

I am sure 100% of the people on this forum will agree that investing, in one form or another, in real estate is a good way to POTENTIALLY secure your future. But before you jump in with the money you have or in the future you should educate yourself to all of the different possibilities and at the same time get your hustle going and build more cash. Don't pay for any courses or mentor programs. Read on BP and get out to local meet ups and talk to real investors BEFORE you throw down any cash to see if this is something you really want to do.

Good luck to you!

@Noah Levenson for residential properties, I only do value add deals. There is no betting on appreciation, but I am a long term buy and hold guy, so time is on my side in this market. Honestly speaking I enjoy the hunt of finding deals more than the actual deals themselves, so I don't mind spending tons of time analyzing deals and driving neighborhoods every week. I also know that I will make mistakes and that my deals might not be the best possible, but I am cool with that. As long as I have money coming into my pockets then I am good with my decisions. When you play the long game, the aggregation of minimal gains always leads to success. It might not be as fast as others or as efficient as others but I don't compare myself to the success of others and I don't care what others think of my strategy. I just know that I am quietly stacking paper ever month and I am good with that. 

@Makala Lee-Norwood I admire your desire to get into REI but money and desire are not the only things you will need to get into investing. Without going into detail about your current financial status, other than the $5000, there is very little constructive advice anybody can offer. One of the first barriers that you will need to address is credit. You need to be able to get a loan for any property, local or out of state. I would suggest that you take some time to review your current earning power and your credit rating. If you are currently pulling down a good salary that will help, but if you are not then you will either need to partner with somebody who does or get your W2 work sorted out. Polish your credit rating so that it will be easier to get a loan. The truth of the matter is that getting your first loan, at a young age, is probably harder than finding your first deal.

Good luck to you!

@Joan Pla there are so many more advantages to doing a house hack than investing in a small multi out of state that it really does not make sense to burn time on looking out of state.  First off you get prop 13 that will protect your future property tax increases. Secondly, you get the debt pay down of having a tenant. Third you get better interest rates on a primary residence compared to an investment property. Fourth, there are other tax advantages, but I am not a tax professional so I suggest you speak to someone more qualified. Fifth, you get hands on experience in a very controlled situation.  Sixth, you don't have any PM fees that will eat at any income (if you choose to self manage).

Good luck!

@Noah Levenson  Cool quote!

I lived the learning transition with my father, not in real estate, but the emotional and intellectual exercise was still the same. I have a couple of 4 plex units in Mountain View, a few condo's and a commercial residential in Oakland and I have an industrial building in Milpitas. I only invest in the Bay Area and I don't do out of state.