All Forum Posts by: Alan F.

Maybe it is just me, but it seems to me like you can see ebbs and flows in the BP forums. There are times when a lot of people are posting very interesting questions that are worth having a discussion. And there are times like right now when there is nothing of substance. 

Not trying throw anyone under the bus here, but: how much should I list my house for / how can I insure my rental properties against nuclear war / how can I get started with no skills and no money - are not really great topics to debate..

Does this line up with what's going on in the market? I had several people reach out to me with the question for my YouTube channel how the stock volatility and tariffs are impacting the Milwaukee market. Short answer: still running very hot, but only residential, investors are to scared right now.

Wondering how BP website traffic goes up and down over time and how that correlates with the market. Would be cool to see a 10 year chart!

Here is a quick tip I do to do some research on people as too many people get burned in real estate and investing because they don't do proper research — or they stop at page one of Google.

One of the best tools you have right now is ChatGPT — if you know how to use it right.

If you're vetting a sponsor, fund manager, educator, or "guru," don't just search their name.
Instead, use a direct prompt like this:

"Researching [NAME OF PERSON AND COMPANY], should I invest with them, do they have a criminal history or many complaints?" Please include searches on Reddit, BBB and Biggerpockets and other public record datasources.

This forces the AI to dig for lawsuits, BBB complaints, red flags, and regulatory issues — not just their own marketing fluff.

I used this approach recently and uncovered major issues on some people who looked legit at first glance.

Bottom line:
Do not skip deep research.
Do not just go by podcast interviews, polished websites, or social media followings.

So whether you are a GP, LP, Private Lender, Investor, Syndicator, Fund Manager - Use every tool available to protect your money.

NOTE: THIS SHOULD NOT BE THE ONLY TOOL YOU USE, BUT IT CAN SAVE YOU TIME ON A PRELIMINARY / INITIAL REVIEW

So the question is what’s your thoughts on networking and is it over rated.

From my own experience, going to meet ups and talking big game with newbies was l not all that beneficial.  Going to meet ups and being exposed to a pitch fest was not all that beneficial either. Being somebody’s lap dog probably would not be beneficial for me…I never gave that a shot. Lol

What I have found for myself to be beneficial was marketing and getting in front of sellers and pretty well closing my ears and eyes from those that were talking big game so I did not get discouraged.. I’ve never had anyone take me under their wing, but that’s possibly because my personality does not seek out that kind of arrangement.

I am not a realtor or a lender so I do not have any perspective personally for that when it comes to networking.

What’s your thoughts on networking?

PS my Title was supposed to be (is networking overrated,), but I cannot edit it. Maybe a moderator can.

Quote from @Wayne Kerr:

Just cut it and see what happens - ideally slowly and with an escape route 

"Just cut it and see what happens"

Well that is one way to find out, Lol.... But sometimes it's th easiest way on a really complicated framing job. The idea of the ceiling joists running perpendicular doesn't always work out.
It really s**ks when your sawsall blade gets stuck because the weight of the house comes down on it....been there done that....

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Greg Miller:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Greg Miller:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Alan F.:

https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_nafta01_impac...

An EPI article from 2001

Well known. In 1992 Ross Perot warned of the "giant sucking sound" of jobs disappearing in the US if NAFTA was signed.

Now compare the loss of those jobs to the money consumers saved and tell us whether NAFTA was better or worse over all.

 Besides some effects on jobs created by competition, what metric are you using to suggest NAFTA has been overall bad? GDP in the US surged after NAFTA. Thats new business and old business becoming more successful. People tend to scream that china is stealing the manufacturing jobs which NAFTA obviously doesn't cover. 

I often hear that tariffs will bring all the jobs back and it reminds me of the Piano. Once the largest industry and virtually died when the radio came in. I'm sure there were people screaming about re-opening piano factories but the world moved on. Theres no company in the world opening a new factory today, or planing a new factory today that won't be 90% robots/technology/AI. They will not be employing a substantial amount of humans.

As for housing and rents, extra costs added to labor and materials will slow construction and affordability lowering supply coming online, this will likely push both up in the mid-term, not down. 

 Consumer spending is included with GDP

Wouldn't it be a good thing if the next generation of semi cons, bio tech, robotics, surgical robots et al was built here in the states?

The ancillary companies, employees etc could earn a living. Believe it or not the jobs aren't really that complicated. If folks another countries can do it, why not Americans? 

 So similar to the CHIPS act? Incentives vs tariffs. And still, factories would be built to be efficient from the get. Highly robotic with revenue going to the top and only few highly skilled labor with substancial tax breaks going to the corporations. So if you can afford to buy shares of the companies, GREAT! But it doesn't substantially help labor jobs. The infrastructure in asia is massive and has been built for decades on low labor, and just because America would be taking jobs away from china for instance, does not mean jobs are created in any meaningful way in America.   

 The CHIPS act is a subsidy and actually helped increase inflation, no I'm more in favor of not incentivizing companies to off shore.

I do agree that the genie can't wholly be put back in the bottle, but at least some of the manufacturing done back here.

Automation does not eliminate as many jobs as you portray, I've automated alot of facilities. 

yes I'm awaew of the pacific rims role in tech manufacturing, I've worked overseas also. 

to wit, j believe the largest emerging manufacturing hub will probably be India.

As with many things in life I I believe it's not either/or but rather somewhere in the middle. 

FWIW I also believe Bessents policies play a role in rooting out the inflationary environment. 

 India becoming more of a threat past an emerging market will make Russia and China immediately go on the offense in trade war. Netherlands would remain only trading partner that wouldn't change up on them.

Yes, they can be a viable hub but it'll need to be more than just them.

For anyone that fights America bringing back jobs--we need to control our own supply chain because we need to be self sufficient. Covid exposed our lack of capabilities. If you disagree with that, then not sure what more to say. 

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Greg Miller:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Alan F.:

https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_nafta01_impac...

An EPI article from 2001

Well known. In 1992 Ross Perot warned of the "giant sucking sound" of jobs disappearing in the US if NAFTA was signed.

Now compare the loss of those jobs to the money consumers saved and tell us whether NAFTA was better or worse over all.

 Besides some effects on jobs created by competition, what metric are you using to suggest NAFTA has been overall bad? GDP in the US surged after NAFTA. Thats new business and old business becoming more successful. People tend to scream that china is stealing the manufacturing jobs which NAFTA obviously doesn't cover. 

I often hear that tariffs will bring all the jobs back and it reminds me of the Piano. Once the largest industry and virtually died when the radio came in. I'm sure there were people screaming about re-opening piano factories but the world moved on. Theres no company in the world opening a new factory today, or planing a new factory today that won't be 90% robots/technology/AI. They will not be employing a substantial amount of humans.

As for housing and rents, extra costs added to labor and materials will slow construction and affordability lowering supply coming online, this will likely push both up in the mid-term, not down. 

 Consumer spending is included with GDP

Wouldn't it be a good thing if the next generation of semi cons, bio tech, robotics, surgical robots et al was built here in the states?

The ancillary companies, employees etc could earn a living. Believe it or not the jobs aren't really that complicated. If folks another countries can do it, why not Americans? 

"If folks another countries can do it, why not Americans?"

-------------------------------------------------------------

We can; just not at the price we want to pay. If we bring factories over here, they will be highly mechanized and few jobs will be produced. The factories that MAGA wants -- running 3 1,000 man shifts 24/7/365, will never come back. Since I am not one to cater to those too lazy to pay attention or develop skills in high school, I don't have a problem with the factories staying overseas. If we need specific manufacturing capacity here (ship building for the Navy, etc), then we can subsidize it. Raw materials like steel and refined copper? Import it and stockpile it and hold it for times of war. General metal bending for high school dropouts? Nope.

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Greg Miller:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Alan F.:

https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_nafta01_impac...

An EPI article from 2001

Well known. In 1992 Ross Perot warned of the "giant sucking sound" of jobs disappearing in the US if NAFTA was signed.

Now compare the loss of those jobs to the money consumers saved and tell us whether NAFTA was better or worse over all.

 Besides some effects on jobs created by competition, what metric are you using to suggest NAFTA has been overall bad? GDP in the US surged after NAFTA. Thats new business and old business becoming more successful. People tend to scream that china is stealing the manufacturing jobs which NAFTA obviously doesn't cover. 

I often hear that tariffs will bring all the jobs back and it reminds me of the Piano. Once the largest industry and virtually died when the radio came in. I'm sure there were people screaming about re-opening piano factories but the world moved on. Theres no company in the world opening a new factory today, or planing a new factory today that won't be 90% robots/technology/AI. They will not be employing a substantial amount of humans.

As for housing and rents, extra costs added to labor and materials will slow construction and affordability lowering supply coming online, this will likely push both up in the mid-term, not down. 

 Consumer spending is included with GDP

Wouldn't it be a good thing if the next generation of semi cons, bio tech, robotics, surgical robots et al was built here in the states?

The ancillary companies, employees etc could earn a living. Believe it or not the jobs aren't really that complicated. If folks another countries can do it, why not Americans? 

 So similar to the CHIPS act? Incentives vs tariffs. And still, factories would be built to be efficient from the get. Highly robotic with revenue going to the top and only few highly skilled labor with substancial tax breaks going to the corporations. So if you can afford to buy shares of the companies, GREAT! But it doesn't substantially help labor jobs. The infrastructure in asia is massive and has been built for decades on low labor, and just because America would be taking jobs away from china for instance, does not mean jobs are created in any meaningful way in America.   

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Alan F.:

https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_nafta01_impac...

An EPI article from 2001

Well known. In 1992 Ross Perot warned of the "giant sucking sound" of jobs disappearing in the US if NAFTA was signed.

Now compare the loss of those jobs to the money consumers saved and tell us whether NAFTA was better or worse over all.

 Besides some effects on jobs created by competition, what metric are you using to suggest NAFTA has been overall bad? GDP in the US surged after NAFTA. Thats new business and old business becoming more successful. People tend to scream that china is stealing the manufacturing jobs which NAFTA obviously doesn't cover. 

I often hear that tariffs will bring all the jobs back and it reminds me of the Piano. Once the largest industry and virtually died when the radio came in. I'm sure there were people screaming about re-opening piano factories but the world moved on. Theres no company in the world opening a new factory today, or planing a new factory today that won't be 90% robots/technology/AI. They will not be employing a substantial amount of humans.

As for housing and rents, extra costs added to labor and materials will slow construction and affordability lowering supply coming online, this will likely push both up in the mid-term, not down. 

Quote from @Alan F.:

https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_nafta01_impac...

An EPI article from 2001

Well known. In 1992 Ross Perot warned of the "giant sucking sound" of jobs disappearing in the US if NAFTA was signed.

Now compare the loss of those jobs to the money consumers saved and tell us whether NAFTA was better or worse over all.