All Forum Posts by: Alan F.

Quote from @Alan F.:

https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_nafta01_impac...

An EPI article from 2001

Well known. In 1992 Ross Perot warned of the "giant sucking sound" of jobs disappearing in the US if NAFTA was signed.

Now compare the loss of those jobs to the money consumers saved and tell us whether NAFTA was better or worse over all.

In reading the BRRR book by David Greene, he encourages investors to find the top realtors in the areas you want to invest in and make them a part of your team. I got the impression that the more agents you have looking for you on your behalf, the better chance you have of finding good deals. My only concern is that, these days, agents want to have you sign an exclusive contract which prevents you from going with other agents. Any advice on how to get multiple agents to look for deals, without having them throw a contract that will limit you to them only?

The reality of course, is that reshoring will take at least a decade and it's quite unclear if Americans and our politicians will have the stomach for the pain restructuring global trade (to reshore manufacturing and reduce national debt) will cause given that we still have room to kick the can down the road.  That is, I suspect the tariffs are temporary and not long enough to radically effect anything as we will remove them at the end of trumps term at the latest and more likely near the midterms.  If not outright removed the tariffs will become so porous with exceptions that they will have marginal effect on US based manufacturing.  Furthermore, I suspect this is going to be classic Trump--good intuition on what we should do coupled with, at best, sloppy execution.

I'm not sure which post to add but the thread started by @Scott Trench for some reason says it's locked or at least I am locked out. The Trump one. Not here to talk politics, just strategy. Can someone unlock it for me?

That thread is going to reveal the details that a lot of us mentioned. Think RE will face some reckoning soon, but everything else is pointing to austerity.

Our Treasury Secretary just said this past weekend.

" Wall Street has done great, it can continue doing well, but it's main street's turn. It's main street's turn. And that's what we saw yesterday."

Tell me that isn't as clear as day. We'll disagree on the long term view of BTC but James, some others in the Trumpcession view like John & Henry Clark have been spot on. Its incredible the knowledge of this board. As a retired CTA and not to toot my horn, but one of the best CTAs too--some say since George Washington--the macro views is simply off the charts. Better than institutional money or "smart" money.

Something to continue to keep an eye on is oil like i mentioned before to @Alan F. , but also copper. If it breaks any support, forget the USA recession but global will need to follow especially after this YTD rally.

I hope we don't u turn and then throw Bessent under the bus. This is the right play especially since he inherited such a disastrous situation. Shame on "smart" money running the count thinking DJT 2025 is DJT 2017. Different game. 10 year down we go as I'm seeing leveraged RE as an investor touching 6% rates. Just need the absolute value to adjust a little in non primo.

Hopefully, Main Street does get back into it.

Quote from @Alan F.:

Irony....a year ago a machine shop owner, in Santa Clara, I've known for years passed. Re-assesment prompted the kids to sell. They knew about my involvement in REI (just flipping SFH) and asked for help. They were initially looking in Sacramento (wanted to keep the labor force) but I couldn't find anything suitable. I drove to Sparks, found a broker and they bought the land and building. 80 jobs lost in CA, a win for Nevada machinist. I got to wire the new shop. The old tilt up is torn down and being replace with a 6 story MF.

I learned a bunch on this thread, I didn't know MF operators were a proponent of prop 19

I'd like to pass on my rural SF to my kid....maybe I'll just sell and buy out of state. IDK yet.

If Becca is still following, I looked on internet and I may be wrong about 2yr requirement, it says 1 year. In June I'm revising estate planning, hopefully I learn something from the lawyer.

I too am opposed to the erosion of prop 13.

CA has some of the lowest HO in the country, I don't think prop 19 is going to help younger people own homes

>I learned a bunch on this thread, I didn't know MF operators were a proponent of prop 19

I do not believe many MF owners were a proponent of prop 19.   Maybe agents and other RE professionals that benefit from RE sales.

your welder story is so similar but I suspect you business owner made the smarter decision to punt on the business.   My business owner made a decision that I think was based on his heart.   They owned the property around 50 years but that was not their first site.  They had been in business since the early 1960s (so near 65 years).  I believe he does not want to be the one to shutter the family business (the business is named after their family name) after nearly 65 years in operation.  Storing machining equipment does not seem wise.  I have known the heir around 20 years.  Just as a long time customer, but being so long means I have gotten to know him fairly well.  Also his receptionist and his right hand man had not turned over since I have been using them.  He told me the right hand man had been employed over 30 years (I suspect he stated right out of high school as he looks to be in early to mid 40s (the heir looks to be upper 40s)).

this is the consequence of prop 19.  Family businesses getting shuttered at death.   

by the way there is a large coastal land owner near Big Sur.  He is leasing land for cattle in part to keep the prop 13 tax benefit (farm land is exempt for prop 19).  The land is wide open now but suspect it would crazy valuation if reassessed for property tax purposes).  Smart owner.  Most the time you cannot tell there is cattle on the land except the cow patties.

i have heard second hand of the same thing being done by owners having small family wineries and growing grapes.

if anyone in CA has large land tracts that they want to protect from the property tax reassessment at death, consider what is required to have the land used for agrepiculture.  

good luck