I look forward to reading your book!
Originally posted by
@J Scott:
Originally posted by @Andrew Angerer:
Hey J,
Fan of your books and other works, I just finished reading your guide to estimating ARV ebook. I know that the '08 recession was ( partially ) caused by sub-prime mortgages, where as today, there are few sub-prime mortgages on houses but many sub-prime auto loans. My question is, do you think the next recession will look similar or different from the last in terms of how easy it will be to find foreclosed properties/ short sales?
I talk a lot about this in the book, but here are my general thoughts...
A lot of real estate investors who have come along since 2008 tend to think about real estate being the cause of a market downtown -- in 2008, the mortgage crisis destroyed the economy. So, they judge the strength of the market (both real estate and the economy) by looking at real estate data and statistics and saying, "Real estate is strong...all is good!" or "Real is weak...all is bad!"
But, in actuality, for most recessions, real estate isn't a cause. Real estate is just the unlucky economic sector that gets dragged along because of parts of the economy are struggling. In 2001, it was tech that lead the downturn. In the late 80s, is was the S&L crisis. In the 70s, it was oil that caused negative ripples through the economy.
In most cases, real estate goes down during a recession not because there are systemic issues in the real estate market (like in 2008) but because the economy is crap, interest rates are high, consumers are overloaded with debt, people are losing jobs, etc. No matter how sound the real estate market might be, if these other things are happening, real estate is going to get hurt because homeowners are struggling to pay their bills and renters aren't in a position to buy.
So, looking at today's housing market and saying, "All is good because real estate looks good..." is not sound economic forecasting. Real estate is a "lagging indicator," meaning that it's going to look good even as the economy turns down. A few months after the economy starts to suffer, we'll start to see the real effects on the real estate industry. By the time people start saying, "Real estate is looking bad..." the economy will likely already be showing major cracks.
Which leads me to the answer to your question... :)
I don't think there are any major systemic issues with the real estate market right now (again, unlike 2008). The industry is still pretty sound, at least in the single family residential sector (I could argue that multi-family has some other issues). So, whether we see a big drop in real estate and whether we see a lot of really cheap properties this time around will be highly dependent on how bad the broader economy is.
How high unemployment goes. How high interest rates go. How much further inflation increases. How badly GDP gets hit. What happens with consumer debt. Etc.
And unfortunately, nobody knows the answer to that question. Personally, I don't think things will be as bad as 2008, but I'm just guessing (like everyone else, including all the economists). The big concern I would have for our economy right now is consumer debt. This is just unsustainable, and I have a feeling that default on consumer debt (and student loan debt) could lead to a big economic snowball...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL
But again, good economists will admit they have no idea how bad the next downturn will be. Could be relatively small, like 2001 (or smaller). Could be big, like 2008 (or bigger). But anyone who tells you they know is lying to you... :)