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All Forum Posts by: Andrew Angerer

Andrew Angerer has started 17 posts and replied 226 times.

Post: J Scott's Recession Proof Real Estate Investing: Ask Me Anything!

Andrew AngererPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Dayton, OH
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 183
Wow, thanks for all that insight, and yes I agree that the amount of student debt is way to high to do any good. Many of my friends have held off on buying property because of it.

I look forward to reading your book!

Originally posted by @J Scott:
Originally posted by @Andrew Angerer:

Hey J,

Fan of your books and other works, I just finished reading your guide to estimating ARV ebook. I know that the '08 recession was ( partially ) caused by sub-prime mortgages, where as today, there are few sub-prime mortgages on houses but many sub-prime auto loans. My question is, do you think the next recession will look similar or different from the last in terms of how easy it will be to find foreclosed properties/ short sales?

I talk a lot about this in the book, but here are my general thoughts...

A lot of real estate investors who have come along since 2008 tend to think about real estate being the cause of a market downtown -- in 2008, the mortgage crisis destroyed the economy.  So, they judge the strength of the market (both real estate and the economy) by looking at real estate data and statistics and saying, "Real estate is strong...all is good!" or "Real is weak...all is bad!"

But, in actuality, for most recessions, real estate isn't a cause.  Real estate is just the unlucky economic sector that gets dragged along because of parts of the economy are struggling.  In 2001, it was tech that lead the downturn.  In the late 80s, is was the S&L crisis.  In the 70s, it was oil that caused negative ripples through the economy.  

In most cases, real estate goes down during a recession not because there are systemic issues in the real estate market (like in 2008) but because the economy is crap, interest rates are high, consumers are overloaded with debt, people are losing jobs, etc.  No matter how sound the real estate market might be, if these other things are happening, real estate is going to get hurt because homeowners are struggling to pay their bills and renters aren't in a position to buy.

So, looking at today's housing market and saying, "All is good because real estate looks good..." is not sound economic forecasting.  Real estate is a "lagging indicator," meaning that it's going to look good even as the economy turns down.  A few months after the economy starts to suffer, we'll start to see the real effects on the real estate industry.  By the time people start saying, "Real estate is looking bad..." the economy will likely already be showing major cracks.

Which leads me to the answer to your question...  :)

I don't think there are any major systemic issues with the real estate market right now (again, unlike 2008).  The industry is still pretty sound, at least in the single family residential sector (I could argue that multi-family has some other issues).  So, whether we see a big drop in real estate and whether we see a lot of really cheap properties this time around will be highly dependent on how bad the broader economy is.  

How high unemployment goes.  How high interest rates go.  How much further inflation increases.  How badly GDP gets hit.  What happens with consumer debt.  Etc.

And unfortunately, nobody knows the answer to that question.  Personally, I don't think things will be as bad as 2008, but I'm just guessing (like everyone else, including all the economists).  The big concern I would have for our economy right now is consumer debt.  This is just unsustainable, and I have a feeling that default on consumer debt (and student loan debt) could lead to a big economic snowball...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL

But again, good economists will admit they have no idea how bad the next downturn will be.  Could be relatively small, like 2001 (or smaller).  Could be big, like 2008 (or bigger).  But anyone who tells you they know is lying to you... :)

Post: Single Family Home to Duplex Convert

Andrew AngererPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Dayton, OH
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 183

Greeting from Dayton, sounds like you have a decent idea, generally value add is the way to go. However, Unless you have a great contractor under your belt and a good idea of how to split houses I would not undertake this project. I can only imagine the amount of permits and their costs would prevent you from doing this unless you have large cash reserves. 

However, why not buy a SFH, and rent out a room via Air B and B? This will get you an idea of what it is like to be a land lord, plus you can have the place to yourself on weekdays (usually)

There are also a million other ways to get passive income through real estate, just keep thinking and learning and you will find a great one that works for you.

Post: [Calc Review] Help me analyze this deal

Andrew AngererPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Dayton, OH
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 183

Your total cash down is too low for even the easiest ways to get financing. The FHA can give you as low as 3.5% for your property, but even then, you need to live there. Typically you need 20% to buy a property, which is closer to 36 thousand.

How many units ??

You should usually spend 50% of what you make in rent, but that looks closer to being 80%, consider if there is anything you can do to lower that, if not don't go with this property.

closing costs are usually 5% per the cost of the property, so change that 3000 to 9000. Always over estimate so you dont get any surprises.

Post: Newbie introduction from Boston!

Andrew AngererPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Dayton, OH
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 183

Welcome and best of luck to you sir!

   I hear this expression often, if you had six hours to cut down a tree, you should spend the first 4 sharpening your blade.  In short, spend more time studying, learning and networking before you jump into your first rental. Don't expect everything to go right the first time, but just keep making small steps every day and you will find yourself a millionaire before you know it!

Best of luck,

Andrew Angerer

PS. feel free to message me with questions.

Post: Real Estate Investing for Beginners

Andrew AngererPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Dayton, OH
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 183

Welcome! sounds like you have some funding which is much better than many others could say. There are so many ways to take on real estate investing, weather it is the BRRRR method, fix and flip, wholesaling or being a debtor and loan some of your money. Set a date and have your mind made up by then what you want to do, but until then read and research as much as you can until then.

If you decide to fix and flip or buy and hold, decide on what area of your city you want to focus on. right now I would start looking at properties and researching what properties sell for in your area, so you have a good idea of what a good deal looks like. In the mean time, get a good real estate agent and a contractor on your team. That way when you find a great deal, you can immediately buy, fix and rent out that new property.

Best of luck and feel free to message me with more questions,

Andrew Angerer 

Post: J Scott's Recession Proof Real Estate Investing: Ask Me Anything!

Andrew AngererPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Dayton, OH
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 183

Hey J,

Fan of your books and other works, I just finished reading your guide to estimating ARV ebook. I know that the '08 recession was ( partially ) caused by sub-prime mortgages, where as today, there are few sub-prime mortgages on houses but many sub-prime auto loans. My question is, do you think the next recession will look similar or different from the last in terms of how easy it will be to find foreclosed properties/ short sales?

Post: Funding for rehab down payment

Andrew AngererPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Dayton, OH
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 183

Shame he backed out last minute, but that is part of the learning process. Funding in this economy is actually on the easier side, people are more confident giving out loans. In my case, I had a ton of equity on my personal house which I took a HELOC (like a giant credit card, using my house as collateral ) and got quite a low interest rate compared to hard money lenders.

If you don't have equity in your own property I would ask relatives if they have money in their IRA's that they would be willing to lend. Im not sure how the process works but I know there are podcasts from BP about this subject.

Finally look around in your networks or use bigger pockets, there is a ton of confidence in being a debtor today so use that to your advantage, you will probably find someone that is willing to help, just show that you are serious and make sure they know that they can get their money back if things go bad.

All the best,

Andrew

Post: characteristics of a house hack

Andrew AngererPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Dayton, OH
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 183

I did a single family house hack and rented out a room for some income. I really think that having a separate exit for the tenant was very nice for both of us, in this case it was sliding porch door.  I really wouldn't recommend single family house hacks unless you can stay separated from the tenant.  In that case I would always get one that has at least 1.5 bathrooms or more and is a true duplex. 

However make sure the property cash flows and isn't in a super bad part of town,  for I prefer to hold properties long term.

All the best,

Andrew

Post: Investing in Indianapolis

Andrew AngererPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Dayton, OH
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 183

Welcome, I spend some time in Indianapolis every month and know the area fairly well. Let me know what questions you have.

Post: Multi family Foreclosures

Andrew AngererPosted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Dayton, OH
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 183
Originally posted by @Chris Sukala:

@Jim Williams our last foreclosure purchase was a duplex. So yes the are out there.

 I would love to see more info on the property, specifically how did you find it? 

All The best,

Andrew