All Forum Posts by: Brian Lacey

 I would suggest not listening to Goldman. Quite frankly, they should have gone down with Bear Stearns. 

Hell, probably better off doing the opposite of what they advise.

As far raising rates, the Fed is screwed. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. 

They raise rates next week, which I'm predicting will happen because they can't afford to allow this volatility to continue in the market, and need to take the hit sooner than later. They can't let this last until November, way too many variables to account for to maintain control over the situation. They need to raise them, so they can lower them, apply another round of QE, and then go negative with the rest of the world. And the government (The Fed and White House) can't allow there to be a clear cut recession (which one could easily argue we're in right now) with an election looming in November. Janet wants to be reappointed, and a Republican probably isn't going to do that, especially Donnie.

What they ought to do is lower them, and lower them fast. But in doing so, they're declaring that they made a mistake, and are actually saying we're heading towards a recession or are in a recession, and all that "positive" data is actually irrelevant to the health of an economy, which would further push the idea of the US economy moving to a part-time worker (hence why we're abel to add so many new "jobs").

There's always your own market in your backyard which is fairly laid out by previous comments.

I like to look macro into micro. Find larger trends, regionalize them, then narrow down a couple markets, and then do deep dives.

There is a bubble, quite the bubble to be honest. 

I wouldn't worry about it too much unless it was a true college town, where this town primarily exists simply because of the university serving as its largest employer, and bringing in several thousands of students. Really comes down to diversification in an economy. No different in oil towns, or countries for that matter (looking at you Venezuela). 

To correct the bubble it's fairly simple. Either costs remain high, and population declines (doubtful), or costs decrease (likely), and population remains. The cuts will be toward expendable admin (talk about useless) and gaudy facilities (refer to first parentheses).

An argument could be made that as many senior citizens begin to retire, and are a growing renting class, that a 2/2 or 2/1 setup could work for them.

Welcome, one thing you can do immediately is leverage your time as an athlete. You're a hockey player, and travel for games around various areas/regions. What a great opportunity to study a market beforehand, and then look at it on the trip, even in passing. Talk to some of the locals there when you get the chance, even if its employees in the arena, anyone that can provide you further insight. This is something you can do tomorrow, and gives you the extra advantage that so many people don't get a chance to do.

As far as reports on oil production, they're simply for market manipulation. All talk for now. Keep in mind, you're making a lengthy commitment to an area when purchasing a rental property, so you have to think long term as well as short term. 

You're asking the right questions, and are on the right track. There are potential pitfalls in every area. If a market is dependent on one employer or sector (college towns and oil/energy for example), there are clear potential pitfalls.

What I would suggest to look at where the trends are growing. Couple years ago, tech companies began moving to Austin, TX and Seattle. Now Huntsville, Alabama is growing rapidly because of tech moving in. Energy, Musk's Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada is interesting, if it can get going.

As far as oil, I can only see one thing driving it up to the $70-$100/barrel, and that is war. Which is very very likely. I have my own conspiracy theories as to all this, and other economic trends, but I'll spare everyone from that noise.

It's all connected to some degree. 

Oil industry, auto industry (subprime loans), and global deflationary pressures all can greatly affect US RE wherever you are. 

Some oil cities have diverse markets, Houston being one of them. Others not so much. Western North Dakota is already feeling it.

The cities you listed are fairly popular, and diverse cities. 

RE is all local when it comes down to it. If your tenant is an petroleum engineer, I'd be worried. If they were a government employee, I wouldn't worry.

Keep in mind, you're not buying a property, you're buying a tenant. A bad tenant will run roughshod through your expenses and cap ex. 

 With you doing the PM yourself, then it is even more time consuming for you to replace tenants. The one thing in your pocket is the hot market you're in. That gives you insight, and confidence that the quick turn around with quality tenants is very doable. 

It does sound like you're making a good amount of deals. 

I would ask you, which option puts more money in your pocket? Where is your time best allocated? 

 I love this! You set a clear goal from the get go. Sought out knowledge, and likeminded individuals.  Took the right approach of educating then taking action, and did so in a safe manner by starting small as a passive partner in deals that others with more experience put together, and now are experienced enough to start putting together your own deals.

This is a great blueprint for any new student to follow on their journey of education.