All Forum Posts by: Brian Lacey

Brian Lacey has started 5 posts and replied 213 times.

Originally posted by @George Gammon:

@Brian LaceyAre foreign investors able to buy real estate in Vietnam? and can Americans invest in Myanmar yet?

It doesn't appear so.

http://www.thanhniennews.com/business/its-still-ha...

http://www.investinmyanmar.com/articles/real-estat...

I just study the macro trends, and listen/read to some of the more nomadic investors.

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Welcome!

Been looking at Augusta. Thought it'd be cool to acquire some properties down near Augusta National.

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It really is better to go into a negotiation, and know the numbers that work for you. It protects you from getting caught in the moment, and then accepting a bad deal because you can fudge the numbers, or try to cut some of the expenses to make the math work.

Assuming, and it seems, you've done your due diligence. You're figuring for a 30k discount off what the seller is asking. Try running the numbers with other asking prices, and see if the deal works out. And then decide with your partner what your ceiling is for this to be a good deal.

And always prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. Give yourselves some room to operate if there are bumps along the way.

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Originally posted by @David Faulkner:

Originally posted by @Ben Leybovich:

Originally posted by @Account Closed:

Originally posted by @Matt R.:

I am with you but where is this recession part going to come from in Bay area specifically?

What sectors are getting hit?

Tech!

Minh - we both know that there are markets in this country where tech has been drifting to. Places where $500,000 while buying not quite a shack in SF, buys a very nice 4,000 sq.ft. Are you seeing SF market taking a hit due in part to this exodus of tech?

This is what I am seeing and is the reason I am looking at those markets... I think they are behind SF in the cycle and have 7+ years to run. Thoughts?

I'm not Minh Le, nor do I play him on TV, but would think Portland, Seattle, Austin, and Raleigh would fit that description, though prices have already run up in those markets, just not a high as SF. True some of the big tech companies may be diversifying satellite operations into those markets, but I don't really see them closing down their bay area shops to move everything there ... any other ones where prices haven't run yet? Fargo (w/ Microsoft) maybe?

Maybe I could follow your buddy @Brian Burke around and just buy wherever he does. Thoughts? :)

Tech expansion is also a factor. Duolingo opened and stayed in Pittsburgh. Only a finite amount of space for these companies, would make sense as tech ages, and there are more companies out there, and growing, that they look to other markets.

Fargo isn't a bad idea at all if you ask me. There always has to be a catalyst.

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Originally posted by @Chadd Naugle:

@Nicole Almond I am in the process of my first flip as well, and my numbers are very similar, purchase 58k, 25k repairs, and 130K arv. I was talking with a friend of mine about how I was second guessing myself. His words of advice were this..... Look at as a learning experience, and don't expect to hit a home run or certain amount of profit....The bottom line is you did it, and no matter how much money you make is irrelevant, you will learn a lot about the process, and the repair costs, which is valuable if you want pursue this.

Seems like to me you are buying at a good price, and if there is no chance of losing money, then go for it, and get that first one under your belt.

Really hit the nail on the head.

Manage expectations, keep them reasonable.

Minimize downside.

Know your exit strategies.

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House hacking, kill two birds with one stone!

Such a great way to get started.

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@David Faulkner I wouldn't be surprised if something along those lines you described in the US.

Don't forget the government has a monopoly on violence/force. So if a President wanted to do something like that, or borrow against pensions and back them with government bonds (bye bye retirement funds), it very well could happen in the US.

I'm all for the 5 flags approach. We diversify our properties, we insure our cars and health, yet don't diversify our actual life. Doesn't make sense to me.

Then again, people think I'm a paranoid conspiracy theorist. So take it as you will.

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One way to minimize risk is to wait for the "blood in the streets" phase to run its course.

Brazil right now is heading that way.

Medellin has ran its course.

Myanmar is prime for growth as well as Vietnam.

South Africa is great because of the Rand's devaluation.

Parts of Africa provide interesting promise.

Greece and Spain also are interesting.

It's still RE, so it's slow moving, but much more information is out there because you have to look view it from macro then micro perspective.

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Originally posted by @J. Martin:

Originally posted by @Brian Lacey:

Originally posted by @J. Martin:

Originally posted by @Matt R.:

In his December essay, UCLA Anderson senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg looks at California’s most recent economic data, including trade through California’s ports, international arrivals at Los Angeles ....

The current forecast is for continued steady gains in employment through 2017.

http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/ucla-anderson-fo...

Matt,
I know you are an enormous fan of UCLA Anderson's forecast, but taste some other Kool-Aid out there too! I'm personally not quite as rosy as their forecast, and in fact, I'm wiling to put my money where my mouth is! To me, near-record everything great tells me we are ready for a downturn when the cracks start forming - not that things are set to keep booming for the next two years. I think we need to look beyond the good numbers in the last couple quarters, and look at the whole cycle.

I specifically disagree with this analysis, and am willing to bet against it if you are up for it:

"...we expect the Fed to begin normalizing interest rates by increasing the Federal Funds rate this month. … Thus, we forecast that by the end of 2016 the federal funds rate will be about 1.5 percent and it will approximate 3.25 percent at the end of 2017.”"

I will bet you $500 that the lower bound of the target fed funds rate will be lower than 1.5% by the end of 2016, and lower than 3.25% by the end of 2017. If you want, we can do $250 for each year. You would be betting that the lower bound of the Fed's target fed funds is 1.5% or higher (currently .25%). I don't think the slowdown in global growth will allow it in many ways. Please accept in the forums, and we'll be on record here. We can settle each Jan 1st ;)

I'm also not as rosy as you on tech. Things come, and things go. We hit a data anniversary last month as the total number of jobs in Silicon Valley MSA finally hit the same level they were before the dot-com bust.

If this expansion does go on for another 2 years - and especially if real estate keeps gaining at these rates - I think we'll be better set up for some dislocations.. ;)

Ray Dalio said the Fed has "tightened themselves into weakness".

Soros and Bass have billions shorting the Yuan, China, and Asian currencies.

Credit bubble like never before, and China is burning through reserves. Asian cash buyers have inflated the RE in primary markets. They looked to US RE as a safe haven for their capital (must have forgotten about '07).

I agree 100% that we're at the top, and heading down with a couple dead cat bounces along the way.

What the Fed needs to do is tell the market that they're not going to raise rates, and then eventually drop them, and another round of QE. This is the kicking the can down the street answer.

I believe the Fed is stupid enough to raise rates, as we're already in a recession.

Too many factors that this bubble is popping, and no real sign of growth, but it's going to be a global credit crisis, and out of it will be a global reset of the credit cycle.

I don't know if we are in a recession yet, but some indicators seem to point to softening similar to before and during the beginning of the last recession.. At a minimum, I think the risk of recession in the next 2 years has been understated by many, including the Fed. To think we are in a 3-year path to normalized rates is optimistic, IMHO. Keep in mind this graph is not just for small energy states. The leading indeces for populous states such as New York, Washington, and Texas have all declined pretty significantly, with almost all below 1 or zero in this graph, and many dipping below zero like they were at the beginning of (into) the last recession..

Interesting you brought up credit in China. I saw this recent Bloomberg article, and the increase in credit was phenomenal!! Many times over what happened in US leading up to Great Recession. Can't find the graph, but if you can, post it up!!

Interestingly, the Fed has not been as bad as

@Account Closedand I expected in the past.. They tend to raise rates before job growth is at its peak, and tend to start dropping rates after deceleration in job growth begins...

@Amit M. , @Johnson H. , @Account Closed , any thoughts..? (btw, can't get the fed funds graph to post..)

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/10/kyle-bass-china-ban...

Kyle Bass and Soros have been the main causes for the news on China. Both short. Soros making another currency play.

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