All Forum Posts by: Jason Thompson

@Jason Thompson if you find a deal that you can cashflow today then buy. If you can find a deal where you can add a good amount of value, buy. If you plan to buy and hold for the long term and come across a property they make sense, buy. People have been waiting for a crash for years now.

Ready to buy, the problem is finding something that makes sense. 

If it does make sense, its gone within minutes. All cash. Just cant compete right now.

Also, off market has very little activity. Ive had zero luck with mailers, cold calling, tax defaults, etc

I'm all for always being on the lookout for great deals and all (and I think @Carlos Ptriawan is onto something with his deep dive analytics), but if this is such a great time and everyone is buying, why is volume so low?

Truth be told, these are tough times to find good deals for the average property investor that uses traditional financing because almost all of the numbers run don't make sense.

Even in the markets that still might make sense on paper, you can't begin to tell me that the deals pencil out the way they did 2 years ago.  And, you may not wanna hear it, but there's a reason that those markets are still relatively cheap to begin with.

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Quote from @John Morgan:

I’ve bought 5 properties in the last 7 months. It’s all about “time in the market, not timing the market.” If it cash flows, then I’m interested. I don’t buy for appreciation. That will happen over time. As well as market rent. So I’m ok buying now, then holding for decades and letting my tenants pay off my properties.

 @John Morgan You're absolutely right, my friend; you have been scaling quickly over the last few months, and you must have some strong systems in place! Would you mind sharing one tip on how to scale at the rate you're currently going? I hope you're having a great weekend John. 

My strategy is to scale up for free basically. I wait about 4 or 5 years to pull out equity in my rentals that appreciate. I like to put that equity to use by cashing out and putting 20% down on more properties. If the numbers work, I jump on it. That’s how I’ve acquired my last 6 rentals. And they didn’t cost me a cent out of pocket. So buy and wait is my strategy, as opposed to wait and buy like many on here prefer. 

@Jason Thompson Thanks, I'm glad you liked the quote. My goal for 2023 is to expand my network with quality relationships, just like you. I spent most of 2022 renovating my home after my father passed away and left my mom with a few rentals, building projects, and agricultural land in Zambia. My investment goal is to learn about what it takes to find good investment properties by working with someone who has experience and eventually follow in their footsteps by either renting out my home since we have 100% equity or buying a smaller property to rent out in Hampton Roads or Virginia Beach and stay close to work and family.

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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Jason Thompson:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Jason Thompson:

With so much speculation about the market and its direction, are you waiting on the sidelines, ready to pounce, or are you still pushing forward with conservative underwriting regardless of what the market does? 

 this market is extremely good for ............ high end SF primary purchase.

 @Carlos Ptriawan Can you tell me more about why High-end SF primary purchase is an excellent choice to invest in right now?

 some high end SF are priced into 2016-2018 level, way way way heavy discount. 

Thanks,

Carlos

 @Carlos Ptriawan , that sounds enticing. What markets are you looking at, Carlos?

 bay area market, we have some houses that the comps between high and low is as wide as $500 PSF !! so this is the ultimate window to buy high end property , keep it for 5-6 years and sell it again at top, and repeat.

btw my home is on MLS too right now, but we sell it way above June 2022 price as we have zero inventory in our market. There's tremendous opportunity at any given time, it's just the strategy that keeps changing following the economic environment.

Last yer we purchased also for STR in Hawaii, the rate doesn't scare me. In fact that home already appreciated again.

Quote from @Jason Thompson:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Jason Thompson:

With so much speculation about the market and its direction, are you waiting on the sidelines, ready to pounce, or are you still pushing forward with conservative underwriting regardless of what the market does? 

 this market is extremely good for ............ high end SF primary purchase.

 @Carlos Ptriawan Can you tell me more about why High-end SF primary purchase is an excellent choice to invest in right now?

 some high end SF are priced into 2016-2018 level, way way way heavy discount. 

Thanks,

Carlos

@Jason Thompson
I am waiting and building my position for a future purchase. Like many have said if the numbers work out than I do not see an issue with buying a deal. If you are buying, I would run your numbers extremely conservative, and it has to be CF+. Be careful with some BP advice of buying things that do not CF and you can always refinance later. RE is location specific but the national median sales price has fallen 11% from June. If you bought a home in June even if interest rates fall you cannot refi because you would have under what the requirements are to refi. I believe the last report is 19 of 50 largest metros have negative YoY appreciation right now. If you are smart and bought for CF the value of the asset is not as important but if you are buying for appreciation you may run into trouble. 

I do not think most people think through what the FED cutting rates actually means. The Bond and Euro$ futures curves show a very high probability that the FED will not only cut FED funds but will do it sooner rather than later. When the FED cuts rates it will be a dramatic drop. I obviously agree with the bond market, which has a 100% track record. When the Fed cuts remember they are reactive which means the economy is going to be in bad shape. If you think this is a "soft-landing" or the beginning of a new bull market, why would the FED cut rates?

The first sign of trouble in UST which was the 10/2 spread in March historically predicts a recession in the next 6-24 months with 16months being the avg. That would put us in July/second half of 2023. Considering yields have become more inverted and economic data continues to worsen I see no reason to doubt the curve. 

I use my inner barometer(thermometer?) The scarier it is to buy, the more likely that buying is the right thing to do. When you feel absolutely comfortable with buying("hey, what could go wrong, it's real estate!") then maybe the market's a bit toppy. However, I agree with the general sentiment on this thread. Buy consistently, manage well, and in the long run, the vagaries of the market will be irrelevant and you'll be happy that you bought. That's what my 20 years worth of experience has shown me, anyway.