All Forum Posts by: John Carbone
John Carbone has started 38 posts and replied 1080 times.
Post: Smoky Mountain Slow Down?

- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
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Quote from @Ken Boone:
The Smokies have always been an 8 month season place. Jan-Feb were always low months, May and September were always lull between the peaks but not as low as Jan-Feb, and the rest is slam on. The secret to the smokies has always been buying right - just like anywhere else.
Unfortunately for a lot of people that jumped in this market in the last 2 years, they just didn't buy right. That is what it boils down to. Not saying that is true for everyone who bought int he last 2 years, but for a lot of folks it most definitely is true.
Covid created an anomoly and if folks didn't do their due diligence with how they spent their money (lots of money) that is just on them. There were a number of folks on here who gave warnings such as @Collin Hays for quite a long time so if someone were watching BP to make their decision to buy during COVID and read the posts from pumpers, they would have had to have read many of Collin's warnings as well with other's who backed that up.
To those that have been around it's not a 20% haircut - that 20% to us was a huge bonus - now we are back to norm.
But I hear ya, speaking of pumpers, I just got an email last week from one of my old realtors in that market, asking me if I wanted to buy anymore, because there are "still many great deals to be had!!!".
@John Carbone I am not trying to come down on you at all John if that is how this sounds I don't mean it that way, its just that you are never going to get accountability for what people post on the internet. It's just the way it is. These days there is no accountability anywhere, the media, the government, but especially what is posted online.
Definitely not feeling like your coming down on me. And I’m also not in a situation where I’m upside down on a bad investment here, although it may seem that way from my post. I’m just playing devils advocate of what 90 percent of posts on bigger pockets have been over the last few years saying it’s a 10 month season etc etc. my post is simply to give a real time update on the ground here in the smokies for awareness to everyone. Colin H has definitely been making posts about this the last few years about how unsustainable the Covid boom was. I’ve been in agreeance with him the whole time. A lot of people got sucked in though and to this day as you say realtors are still trying to get people to buy right now before the trap door gets opened up.
To give an example of how bad the underwriting was on deals here….majority of people were using airdna and not factoring in that the revenue included cleaning fee in projection. It also used Covid numbers 20 percent higher. To top this off rates went from 3 to 7 percent….real estate values can drop 50 percent here and that would be well within a standard deviation of 1
Post: Smoky Mountain Slow Down?

- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
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Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Luka Milicevic:
Slow down compared to what?
You can't compare it to the covid revenge boom after everyone ran to the first vacation they could take.
It's like comparing zoom usage at the height of the pandemic vs now and saying there's a drop in usage.
You absolutely can.
And that's because that's what a ton of STR companies were selling. And unfortunately a lot bought into the rally. We heard some obnoxious stuff, not necessarily on these boards but when we were shopping. Though this board did have some pure nonsense-- STRs survive recessions.
Few of our closest got burned on this, we didn't commit. Saw Scottsdale and this just getting too flooded. But the Smokies STR run was one of the biggest bull markets in the COVID real estate boom.
Agree with this. Now those same people who pumped the smokies during Covid are now saying “it doesn’t matter what you paid for it” since it was in the past and you can’t change it. While this is a true statement, there needs to be some accountability here from the pumpers who say “rents always go up”
the smokies are now a 7-8 month season. Even the pumpers now have to admit that may and September are bad months now post Covid. This alone is a 20 percent haircut on revenues.
Post: Experiences "upscaling" your STR for higher rates versus competing on price

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I personally don’t want to cater to 1 percenters and concierge services. If I lose some extra roi I’m fine with that. These are the same people that will Nickel and dime after the fact.
Post: Smoky Mountain Slow Down?

- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
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Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @Jim Mueller:
We are no experts for sure. We purchased a 2/2 cabin, no great view, 915 SF in PF just off the Parkway and went live Oct 1, 2021. Our Jan 1 - June 30, 2023 is up approximately 5% compared to the same time in 2022. I'm not sure why other than I constantly try to tweak our listing to get bookings daily. This is the only STR we have.
What does your June look like?
Post: Experiences "upscaling" your STR for higher rates versus competing on price

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Quote from @Carolyn Fuller:
Every market is different so I'll try to keep this generic.
Personally, I think the best hosts are those who focus on what they love about a space. Make the space your perfect spot and you'll attract people similar to yourself. For me, this is what differentiates a STR from a hotel.
We've decked out our STR with everything we think will make us happy when we need to downsize. But...
I don't think all the ridiculously decadent, impractical things we've added to the unit have allowed us to raise our prices. It is actually the 5 star ratings, and those pour in, not because of the induction cooktop or the gorgeous granite counter tops or the floor to ceiling tiled shower. The 5 star ratings pour in because we are 100% customer oriented. We treat each guest as if they were royalty.
They arrive to find fresh baked croissant from the bakery around the corner, coffee beans in the freezer and half & half in the refrigerator. The morning after they arrive an auto-scheduled note goes out saying "[guest first name], It's Bill & Carolyn. How's your stay? Do you need anything? Don't hesitate to reach out if there is anything you need." And after they check out "[guest first name],Thanks! Safe travels and hope to host your next trip to Cambridge.Don't forget to leave us a review on Airbnb! Also, we strive for a five star experience. Is there any feedback/ suggestions or items to improve the home for the next guest stay?"
It is absolutely astounding how effective those touches have been. The 5 star reviews that have consistently been generated since we implemented these things have been impressive. And it is the 5 star reviews that have allowed us to bump up our nightly fees.
Post: Experiences "upscaling" your STR for higher rates versus competing on price

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Quote from @JD Martin:
Good afternoon all my fellow STR'ers!
I have a home in Florida that I STR in Four Corners, FL when I'm not there. It is a good sized home (3000 sf) in a great location on a lake. I've done reasonably well renting it out, though I'm a little different than many STR owners in that it doesn't particularly bother me if it makes any money since I use it myself.
I'm at the point where I really need (or maybe want is a better term, since technically these things still function) to make some larger improvements - I want to remove the remaining carpet in the home for all LVT, finish out the modern touches I've put in like modern light fixtures, furniture, high dollar ceiling fans, etc, replace the countertops with a nice quartz, etc. For my own personal use and preferences, all of these things make sense. From a dollar cost point of view, I think they are probably of low utility, as a lot of the properties around here compete essentially on price only.
My personal point of view is that I don't want to compete with the bottom feeders around here. Not only do I want a nicer home for the times I am there (several months during the year), I think that there could be a niche market for upscale properties that offer better furnishings and amenities. For example, up until now we've been strictly self-service, but I am considering adding some specific concierge services to stays. I am considering axing the weekend stay people as they seem to be hardest on properties and are also the cheapest/brokest guests. ETC. I've discussed the idea with my PM who doesn't think it is a bad idea but that it will almost certainly generate less bookings. That seems likely to me as well, though I'm not sure I care (I could leave the house vacant all year if I wanted). I'm not interested in "theming" like Star Wars or Disney rooms as my adult kids, siblings and older parents also come stay with us here and they don't need to sleep in Little Mermaid rooms.
In any case, I'm hoping to get some insight from anyone who has upscaled their properties to attract a better class (and higher paying) of guests - what was your experience? Of course, if you're in the Orlando/Florida area that's a bonus, but anywhere is fine with me especially if it's a big vacation area.
Post: Smoky Mountain Slow Down?

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Quote from @Luke Carl:
the data seemed too unbelievable based on dozens of people I talk to here and what I see so I had a look myself to do some “enemy method” analysis on. You should contact your virtual assistants and make sure they are synching your calendars correctly from price labs to Airbnb. Seems like a lot more is open on Airbnb than your labs shows. The 30a properties look strong.
as Colin said, we don’t know anybody who isn’t seeing 20 percent declines apart from a few one offs.





Post: Smoky Mountain Slow Down?

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Quote from @Matt Mertz:
That's the pricelabs dashboard showing your occupancy rate at 7/30/60 days. Luke is doing way better than our cabin. We're 43%/60%/55%.
We've noticed a couple of things this year.
1. We're doing far better than last year. Revenue first half of this year is +57% above last year.
2. We've noticed time between booking and stay has shortened.
Our listing started in Dec 2021 so I think the better performance this year has to do with getting more reviews and superhost. We're super happy but the tighter booking times worry us because we have a big cabin that typically requires more coordination to book. We're hoping that the rest of this year will continue to be as great as the first.
The other thing I wanted to note is that we didn't get the better numbers by cutting our rates. We have a new construction with fantastic views so we've held firm on that.
Post: Need 12% Cash Flow to walk away from our jobs. Possible?

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Quote from @Jeff Nash:
You could probably do this passively with trust deed notes and structured notes to varying degrees. We work with both. There are risks of course, but that is true of nearly all investments.
I think most people choose the STR method because it's something they can see and understand. 99.9 percent of the population doesn't know a thing about trust deed or structured notes so throwing all in $1m into a product like that without understanding it or the risk….even if they did understand it, calculating the true risk is impossible. just doesn't seem viable.
Imagine having a life bustout event and in their new job they tell their new co workers, yeah I once lived early retirement and then I bought a trust deed and it went south and now I’m here 😂
alternately, if the story is I bought a million dollars in real estate and the 2023-2026 bust took me out……we all saw that happen in 2008, standard story
Post: Smoky Mountain Slow Down?

- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
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Quote from @Luke Carl:
What does this show? Not questioning that summer is going to have visitors…but you are saying you are meeting 2021/2022 numbers? Everyone I talk to here is saying rentals are down 20 percent overall for 2023. It’s a fairly large sample size as well. May was a disaster for many. New construction is being halted on many projects (this is a good thing), realtors are quitting in the area due to slow sales. a friend of mine is a realtor and also works with PM companies (I know saying PM on here is blasphemy) but all the insiders are unloading their properties right now before the fall hits.
I’m not saying the smokies is a bad investment, but supply is definitely greater than demand right now. I’m going to hold through this downturn here, but I’m not going to be oblivious to the reality on the ground here.
Also showing a snapshot of your summer bookings that were most likely booked out several months ago is not indicative of the current situation. Something changed abruptly between April and May.