All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

 Wait until winter to buy because prices will drop.....

Need a bit of help as I'm approaching decision paralysis - I'm looking for recommended cities to invest in for STR. Trick is im planning to manage everything remote and/or use a management company. I was looking in Scottsdale, AZ because my brother lives there and can help just in case - but I know Scottsdale is very saturated and highly competitive - so I'm now looking into other locations too. Can anyone recommend other regions / cities that are hot / up and coming? (Would also consider international too)1

Pre-approved at 700k and ready to purchase any time. Not looking for anything with HOA. Willing to do a renovation if needed.

Any input is greatly appreciated as I am a first home buyer and want to start off on the right foot. 🙃

My market forecasts I made last fall/winter as other were calling for "crash" and I warned those were dead-flat-wrong was, as i said at the time, simply following the math. In that, I think they were easy forecasts. 

I have been doing speaking engagements as of recent where too often persons introduced me as a "genius of market trends and direction" and each time I sigh a bit, and correct that if anything I will accept I am a great listener, because that's all I really did, I listened to what the math was telling me.    The hard part is blocking out all the "noise" out there in the world today because we have mountains of skewed, bias "information" due to our content-4-profit age. 

First point Carlos is we have to consider was any of this done with intelligent design? Or happen-stance reactionary policy? 

If intelligent design, I'd say this follows a path of how to consolidate the U.S. economy into corporate domain. It has been a savage few years upon small business, savage. We are in an "everything inflation", real estate is just a part of that. And timing is brilliant, absolutely brilliant for such. Bring all production to a complete halt, wipe-out all stocks of things, than hit with inflation. It's a perfect design. Because the shortages are what empower the inflation to be enduring and shift from a inflationary event into a re-pricing one. 

But, can we really say this WAS intelligent design? It's some cloak and dagger stuff to say so, it feels very tinfoil-hat to say such right. It's possible, absolutely possible. The groups exist for such, but we want to hold to a concept that a plutocratic shadow-government does not run things. 

So ok, happenstance made possible by reactionary policy. This is very possible. COVID, oh-no, gonna kill all, ok, everyone stay at home for a time. Has a kind of sense. And then "uh-oh, how do people pay bills?" ok, give em $. "Uh-oh" now we created inflation because we literally showered $ on everyone. And, empowered accelerating depletion of all stocks of goods.    It's possible but, to be true we have to accept that our "leaders" are in effect morons who have vision of all but 10' in front of there face, the inability to think 2,3 steps ahead. Because any 3rd-grade "think-tank" would have seen it coming. Ok, everyone stay at home. how do people eat, get things? Oh, uh, ok, give em $. Ok, where does the stuff there buying come from, oh the warehouses. Ok, and where does the warehouse of stuff come from? Uh, nowhere, everyone is home. Ok, so, it will run out, then what? 

So we have in end the options that either (a) a plutocratic shadow-government is consolidating power, control and wealth to assure all serfs unto them.    Or (b) our leaders are a college of morons who are incapable of actual leadership or planning, simply reacting to whatever is at their door-step and thus, going forward, a roller-coaster ride of reactionary measures. 

Or in simplest terms: sh#t-burger or turd-sandwich, which are we eating, lol.... 

By the #'s we are well into a Neo-Stagflation. 

Demand with supply shortage presents a very protracted term of pricing to hold. Competition and efficiency revolutions lower price, and neither are presenting themselves so this would be a "new norm". 

New efficiencies in tech (ai advent) is in large part a nothing-burger, as it presents a shift action. Those removed from tech may shift into ai, or other under-employed sectors. 

Pricing is holding because it's a repricing event, not transitory inflation. I can't emphasis this point enough, without comprehension of this point one will be lost in comprehending everything else. 

The populous is shown to be well conditioned to live off credit now, the banks have won. So we will see this new economic cycle connected to banking. Meaning they can turn on and off the economy like a light switch to a degree well beyond anything prior, via metering the flow of credit. There has long been a sense of this connection but it's the degree of it's power today that is unique, it's now in command to a significant degree. 

I believe we are at the start of a neo-economy (new economy). Open spigot of credit, inflate pricing 15%, meter spigot down, consolidate back 5%, open for another 15% up, meter down to consolidate again, and on and on the "fun" goes. 

This presents a centralized control of the economy unlike anything ever before. I believe the Fed and others are well aware of this, and are playing with it today. 

I expect that in ~16 months time we will experience the next cycle in this, with the spigot opening, invigorating the economy just in time for election polling. Read the various bond chart's, they are all predicting this. I spent last weeks reading dozens, they are uniform in this, I don't find such uniformity happen-stance, it denotes knowledge. 

So call it a metered economy, very much as one would meter flow of water to yard sprinklers. The grass will drink, green and grow in exact proportion to the watering, similar to average consumer today storing none of that water just living for the moment. 

I don't believe it happen stance the drying up of savings, especially as those like J-pow have mentioned the "problem" is persons savings..... 

So, it's centralization. A power consolidation. Nothing on inducing a recession, not in manner most associate that thought, especially not a collapse which is most fertile ground for small business. no, it's a consolidating event, to "meter" the economy, putting a "control" on it all, and thus a very literally control center to adjust corporate profits on demand. 

The next buyers will lose money, too.  It will be the buyers after them that have a chance.  

Personal experience here:

I used to manage a hotel in the late 1980s/early 1990s.  The hotel was built for around $5 million in 1985. But the hotel market in the area became overbuilt, and rates/occupancy wouldn't support a $5 million build price.  Deep in the red most months.

Chapter 2.  The FIRST owners of the hotel sold it at a "fire sale" price of $3.8 million.  But by that time, a deep recession had begun, and it was the same story:  Rates/occupancy wouldn't support a $3.8 million price tag.  The SECOND owners filed bankruptcy, and the hotel went back to the bank.  

Chapter 3.  The THIRD owner of the hotel bought it from the bank for $2 million.  This is when I started managing it.  At that price, the hotel was wildly successful, throwing off about $500K per year in profit.  

Chapter 4.  The THIRD owner of the hotel, with massive profits, successfully sold the hotel for $4 million.  You guessed it:  The hotel never made a dime for owner number four.  I lost track of what happened to the hotel after owner number four.  

Here is a picture of the actual hotel:

This is a shining example of why BP need to add DOWN Votes..... You have ignored effectively everything I DID say, and laid out a running rant of things I DIDNT say.... Lol. 

I get it, your Trolling.... Well established and understood. Have fun as I ignore you going forward.

1 bathrooms perform a lot lower. It happens here in the Smoky Mountains also. 

About 3 months in with my 2/1 in Greenville SC. Occupancy and revenue has been pretty good but could be better. I realize that time on market is a factor here as I build reviews (11*5 stars), and I should qualify for superhost in July. In general I am happy with the performance and I am profitable. 

That said, there is a house around here the corner that is on a less desirable street, no W/D, and not pet friendly that is booked 90%+. The rates, interior furnishing and rebab quality is similar. If anything, my place has more comfortable furnishings, a better kitchen and more character. Aside from superhost status and more reviews, the only strong differentiator of the other house itself is an extra full bath, whereas I have only 1 bath total and you have to walk through the whole house if you are in the other bedroom. 

I do have existing footprint space (roofline covered front patio) where I could add an extra full bath with minimal disruption and an excellent contractor who thinks he can do it for <$10k. Plus with bonus depreciation and the ability to force appreciation and cash out refi I am not concerned about the cost, and I could do the work during the slower winter months. 

Has anyone added a bathroom and seen it make that big of a difference? Thanks in advance!

Not what I said. What i said is it’s useless if it’s not $’s/sf, and it’s useless information unless you are investing nationally. Even then I assume you’d be smart enough to pick the better markets, not just throw darts at a map. 

It’s like the useless “household income” statistics that don’t mention “household” sizes change. Are you publishing these statistics? Why do you care if they’re useless?

Again, tell me you had a bunch of properties and you sold them all last fall. If both of those aren’t true then even you know the numbers we useless. if you did, then all you lost out on were opportunity costs and selling and acquisition costs.

I truly don’t care. Make your next response anything, even just WINNER!  This my last attempt. I’ve already put too much effort in to explaining why they’re useless, you don’t want to listen. You ignore questions about if you think prices will be lower in 5 years. Your brick wall defense is spectacular. I just hope you’re getting paid to promote the useless stats, at lest then I’d understand your conviction. 

And you don’t think that should be done by $’s/sf? Even that would be useless if it wasn’t by zip code, but a national price means nothing. What if it’s just less mansions being built? What if more condos are being built? It just doesn’t mean anything. What if South Dakota is building more new homes and California is building less?

Don’t get me wrong. That chart says new home prices are down 16% I’d love that, I’m in the market for a new home. But they just aren’t. At least not here. They’re up 10-20%.  And if it’s not true here it’s worthless, I doubt this is the only market where it’s wrong/useless. 

At least it shows AFTER this “Massive drop” new home prices are up 30% over the last 2 years. I’ll take it. If you put down 20% you’ve made a 150% return in 2 years after the “crash”. Hopefully you’ve sold all your properties to avoid the coming crash. We could use the increased inventory.

I’d love a price drop but that’s just a dream here. I want to do some 1031 exchanges. If my property and the more expensive property both drop, I save money. ($400k property to $700k property becomes $340k to $595k at a 15% drop. I save $45k. And in my market cheaper properties hold up better so I’d probably save more.)