All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

And you don’t think that should be done by $’s/sf? Even that would be useless if it wasn’t by zip code, but a national price means nothing. What if it’s just less mansions being built? What if more condos are being built? It just doesn’t mean anything. What if South Dakota is building more new homes and California is building less?

Don’t get me wrong. That chart says new home prices are down 16% I’d love that, I’m in the market for a new home. But they just aren’t. At least not here. They’re up 10-20%.  And if it’s not true here it’s worthless, I doubt this is the only market where it’s wrong/useless. 

At least it shows AFTER this “Massive drop” new home prices are up 30% over the last 2 years. I’ll take it. If you put down 20% you’ve made a 150% return in 2 years after the “crash”. Hopefully you’ve sold all your properties to avoid the coming crash. We could use the increased inventory.

I’d love a price drop but that’s just a dream here. I want to do some 1031 exchanges. If my property and the more expensive property both drop, I save money. ($400k property to $700k property becomes $340k to $595k at a 15% drop. I save $45k. And in my market cheaper properties hold up better so I’d probably save more.)

I love that you think new houses will be cheaper several years from now. How many times has that happened in the last 100 years? And you expect cheaper prices after interest rates drop? You may be the lone voice of reason predicting lower rates will cause lower prices.  Existing homes have sold for double digit discounts to new homes for the last 20 years in vegas, that’s nothing new. I assume that’s true of most if not all markets. 

We haven’t even mentioned more expensive labor, more regulations, NIMBYism, tougher building codes, all the premium land already being taken, or the mass migration to cities and away from less desirable places. I guess that could help lower the median price if people are selling their $100k homes in the Midwest people are fleeing.

Ps. I think even the “experts” are guessing, but I’d give you an 80-20 chance of houses being more expensive in 5 years. Are you saying 80-20 they’ll be cheaper? I assume you’re not saying 100% chance they will. 

 Dude the Fed Can NOT raise anymore otherwise all these lenders are going to bankrupt before us , the residential owner of 30 year mortgage LOL 

They're already tired with SVB and First Republic and the crash of Commercial sectors. 

We're in very weird situation now where OO and rental value are still going up againts what the Fed wants, while the Fed has to solve all those regional banking crisis and commercial later on.

It seems a lose lose situation to Fed.

They even failed to destroy the job market.

Except median can make the numbers skew even more…especially as sales and inventory drop if one market segment isn’t listing their homes.

Imagine you have 100 sales. All houses have 1 of 5 prices.

10 for a million, 20 for 600k, 20 for 500k 20 for 450k 20 for 400k and 20 for 200k. The median is 450

Now in higher interest rates you have 5 for a million, 10 for 600k, 15 for 500k, 15 for 450k, 15 for 400k and 40 for 200k. Even if the homes sell for the same price you have an 11% median drop. And it could easily be more skewed than that. Especially if you try to use national numbers. Almost every single expensive house sale or purchase is accompanied with a cheaper home being sold or purchased. Most of the single sales/purchases are young people buying their first home.

You could probably compare prices in the same zip code, if all the homes are almost Identical. But even that doesn’t work in areas with draws like waterfront. It doesn’t work across an entire state and it certainly doesn’t work across the country. 

The problem is you can’t use average selling price. People are much less likely to sell a $600k house with a Locked in 3% mortgage than a $150k condo with one.  So now you have a bunch of low end sales moving the “average”. 

People who have to move because of financial reasons (though I don’t see much of that in Vegas) ar usually singles in smaller cheaper housing. People selling to move in with new spouses or significant others are usually selling smaller properties. Young people willing to move to new markets for job opportunities or leaving home or school same story. Honestly I can’t believe anyone is selling who doesn’t have to. Unless they are downsizing as they get older or came in to a windfall. 

We’re back to anything reasonable being under contract in a week and waiting lists for new homes. Especially single story homes. 

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://www.redfin.com/news/ho... 

Looking at various chart above, my impression is this 2023 market is still too strong , market is following 2022 price/inventory pattern except with even lower inventory than 2022 and pushing the price of May 2023 to be equal to May 2022. 

I guess SEC action to 'mini crash' the real estate failed miserably LOL It's just so strange that market is too strong that almost nobody willing to sell. 

Almost everyone that's predicting a crash in November 2022 is wrong, @James Hamling

 479k to 436k for median sales price according to St. Louis fed. This is the chart I was always showing in the infamous several month long post last year here. Since then,  9 percent drop in a quarter is pretty strong, we should see q2 soon. Seems like exactly as I was predicting. We will see 20 percent peak to trough by end of this year which was my base case. Surely anyone who rented 12 months ago as opposed to buying is in a much better situation in 99 percent of cases. Rents have dropped pretty significantly in most markets as well. 

HUD is having lagging data. Actually I'm surprised how could May 2023 is reaching May 2022 price level --per Redfin data LOL.

https://www.redfin.com/news/ho... 

Looking at various chart above, my impression is this 2023 market is still too strong , market is following 2022 price/inventory pattern except with even lower inventory than 2022 and pushing the price of May 2023 to be equal to May 2022. 

I guess SEC action to 'mini crash' the real estate failed miserably LOL It's just so strange that market is too strong that almost nobody willing to sell. 

Almost everyone that's predicting a crash in November 2022 is wrong, @James Hamling

I’d love to see Dollywood’s numbers. Particularly for the period of April 15 - May 15. I am working on obtaining them, I’ll post here if I’m successful.

Summer bookings are coming in full swing for us now. June and July are looking good. Summer really didn’t start booking until this past holiday weekend. Except for the larger cabins 5 bed + those are still booking farther out.  

I also saw that. If you were to use Perato's Principle it means roughly 3,400 of those properties bring in 80% of the bookings/revenue