All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

Tennessee is a big tourist draw in the summers.  Many that fly into Nashville are also heading to the Smokies.  Take a look at the cheap car rates for this weekend.  I can rent a standard SUV for $251 for a week, before taxes.  A year ago, these rates were double or even triple.  Things are slow right now.

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

long term rentals are pretty much the worst investment you can make right now. Rents are on the decline. There is a company that IPO’d that primarily deals with long term rentals and their stock has suffered greatly since their ipo in the last year. 

I think this is a telling sign that the long term prospects of buying and holding a house to eek out single digit returns not even factoring in expenditures is just a last decade play. Game is closed now. 

 When Trolling someone at least put a little effort forward to get the most basic of facts correct. 

It wasn't an IPO, it was a Spac. Without doubt your going to have some trolling.... I mean "opinion" on how a spac is the same as and IPO according to you, which is like saying the sun rises in the south and set's in the north but ok. 

And the spac was just a few months ago, hasn't had 1st financial report release as of yet. 

Lastly, I was not aware that the U.S. housing moved based upon what 1 companies stock was doing..... That must be one heck of a powerful company because not even Black Stone would boast such a statement and they are the biggest in the world at it....... 

I don't know what your issue is, maybe Mom's kicking you out of the basement, IDK, but you have a very odd skewed thought path of things that's rather disconnected from reality and facts. But hey, why let something like facts get in the way of a good troll right. 

Well, not sure why your on BP with your declaration that Real Estate Investing is "just a last decade play. Game is closed now.". Why are you on BP, other than to Troll? Are you here to "save us" via what, crypto, lol. 

Hey, next Troll feel free to send updates on some positions I actually have holdings in. That would be a great help, save me time to check in on things. Let me know how O is doing, thanks. 

 Just spent 5 minutes looking at some rental listings in prestigious areas of Minneapolis suburbs (maple grove) which I have a friend who lives there.

Take a look at this listing (you may know who the realtor is on this one) a bag holder bought it at the peak in 2022 for 315k tried to rent it initially for $2400, now it’s going for 2k . I do like the listing agent’s strategy though of wanting 2-3 year lease locked in. It’s almost as if the agent knows prices will go lower and this owner can’t risk vacant months on turnovers. Smart guy 

even assuming this is a cash buyer at 315k, that’s a 7 percent return at current rents without including realtor fees, taxes, etc….returns are sub 3 percent. Anyone buying in this saturated market is doing just that, gambling. 

To answer your question, I am on here because I do invest in real estate but not at these prices, and have you seen how cheap it is to build now? I’m doing my own development at half the cost of new construction. It’s not passive by any means but the hourly return is significant enough for me to be involved in it. 
regarding the SPAC, you were pretty bullish on this when it launched which is why I brought it up. Interesting you would be bullish and have no position in it. Several months ago I told you it was a dog and you defended it. Wall Street isn’t rewarding long term real estate plays, it’s AI on AI

You may want to learn how to do the math's correctly before yapping on them. Purchase price of $315k doe snot mean a person brought $315k in capital to the purchase. 

Leverage, it's the entire "secret sauce" of REI math's.

And 3yr lease is COMMON in TC market, at tenant request. Which by-the-way, all our multi-year leases have an automatic annual rent increase baked right into it, it's NEVER a static rent for multi years. So yeah, I happily do 3yr lease with 5% annual rent increase, gives one more sustained tenancy, reduces vacancy costs, but that's obvious to everyone who actually does REI vs those reporting from parents basement.

As for bullish on SFR, no idea what has you just inventing things. We both know that's 100% false, I have never spoke pro or con on SFR, because of my involvement SEC reg,'s on such insider information releases. SO I have not discussed it, pre or post spac, nor been active in it.

FYI your still on ignore kid so, yeah, have fun Trolling too silence as that's where I have to place you back to, the echo-chamber of your basement.

Quote from @John Carbone:

long term rentals are pretty much the worst investment you can make right now. Rents are on the decline. There is a company that IPO’d that primarily deals with long term rentals and their stock has suffered greatly since their ipo in the last year. 

I think this is a telling sign that the long term prospects of buying and holding a house to eek out single digit returns not even factoring in expenditures is just a last decade play. Game is closed now. 

 When Trolling someone at least put a little effort forward to get the most basic of facts correct. 

It wasn't an IPO, it was a Spac. Without doubt your going to have some trolling.... I mean "opinion" on how a spac is the same as and IPO according to you, which is like saying the sun rises in the south and set's in the north but ok. 

And the spac was just a few months ago, hasn't had 1st financial report release as of yet. 

Lastly, I was not aware that the U.S. housing moved based upon what 1 companies stock was doing..... That must be one heck of a powerful company because not even Black Stone would boast such a statement and they are the biggest in the world at it....... 

I don't know what your issue is, maybe Mom's kicking you out of the basement, IDK, but you have a very odd skewed thought path of things that's rather disconnected from reality and facts. But hey, why let something like facts get in the way of a good troll right. 

Well, not sure why your on BP with your declaration that Real Estate Investing is "just a last decade play. Game is closed now.". Why are you on BP, other than to Troll? Are you here to "save us" via what, crypto, lol. 

Hey, next Troll feel free to send updates on some positions I actually have holdings in. That would be a great help, save me time to check in on things. Let me know how O is doing, thanks. 

 Yes, all my rentals have been never less than just under 20% NET 

@John Carbone Like I said make a post under your name and I'll respond. I'll make it even easier for you. Watch out for 100% tax rate. Let's see how foolish I am and what background you have. Do this from a positive standpoint to show there are many angles in the REI world and you want to broaden the discussion.

@John Carbone Sounds like you have a big case of Mines bigger than yours. You can title it that. Make a separate post and then mention me. Glad to respond to you with my background, although that is what I like about BP, people throw out their recommendations and not academic credentials; don't force their ideas on you with their IQ. But when I respond, you have to tell us about your technical and REI background also. I'll make it easy for you.  He needs to watch out he doesn't get taxed at 40%.

Do you have anything positive for the OP.  Or instead of criticizing, do you have anything to add to my recommendation he looks more at his cost versus his revenue side?

@John Carbone

What investment did he end up picking?  What tax rate?  Do you know?

If you have some commentary to add to improve "His" budget analysis, which "he" should do, please offer up some additional positive input. For his benefit, versus yours or mine.  The good thing about BP is the multitude of approaches offered.  All of them can work and all of them can't work.  You have to throw Risk/Reward into the equation.  Right now he and you are discussing just the Reward side of the equation.  Offer him some more of your expanded background, so he can live out there.

You have offered him a possible REI answer. I have offered him an REI approach, plus he needs to run the numbers.

Only if my family helps to pay for you and your wife's costs.  You will understand that if you have done your budget until you both die.

12% cash flow:

a.  Did you pay your income taxes yet in that figure?  Even if you live overseas you still have to pay US income taxes.  Assume 25% or 3% points.

b.  Your company is paying for 1/2 of your health insurance for both of you.  Plus, you still have to pay for your health insurance.  Yes, you can get a hip replacement for $15,000 in Guatemala, a broken arm set for $30 in Belize, and so forth.  But at some point, you will get nailed with Cancer or dialysis and have to come home and you won't have coverage.  Talk with your tax accountant about continuing to pay minimal US federal insurance premiums to stay eligible.  Check on Allianz Global insurance for overseas travel.

c.  Social Security, basically take it off the board, since your highest 30 years will be pretty low.  

d. Inflation: Will your financial investment or your REI keep up with Inflation. Say 5%. Not counting your 12% cash flow return which you're using to live on. That takes another 5% points off your 12% number.

e.  Kids????  Take some % points off if needed.

f.  Have you prepared for this?  Gardening, hunting, fishing, first aid training, house repair expertise?  Let's say you pick a spot and live fairly minimally for $2,000 per month.  Or $24,000 per year.  2.4% points.

g.  You still have to rent, buy or build a house.  Let's keep it simple at $800 rent and another $300 for utilities.  You won't go totally off grid, unless you have trained yourself.  Get a Berkey water filter either way.  $1,100 per month or $13,200  or 1.3% points.

Things are getting a little tight, your life expectancy is getting longer, and your $1mm is only worth about $200,000 in future dollars when you get to the rest home.   Then my family will start to help pay for your families medical and care.

Personally, I wouldn't look for the answer in a REI forum. REI tends to be active. This is more of a lifestyle and budget discussion versus how much you might make.

I think the biggest economic lesson in all of this is, a 10 percent drop in demand doesn't necessarily equate to a 10 percent drop in rental revenue.  The two are not linear.  I don't know how many times I heard folks say something like "Oh well, even if visitors to the Smokies drops 10 percent, I can live with a 10 percent cut."  

But when supply exceeds demand, it's a buyer's market, and the lowest bid gets the booking.  So if a 10 percent drop in demand causes a glut in supply, revenues can drop in half very quickly.  

Tough pill to swallow right now for many.