All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

Hi all, 

Relax...

Massachusetts implemented a whomping 17% tax on short term rentals a few years ago. It hasn't impacted my bookings nor what I'm able to charge in nightly rates. 

Which of those jobs doesn’t  a hotel provide? On top of valets, bellmen, waitresses, cooks, managers, etc etc etc. 

I would be more than willing to be the average STR employees ZERO people. They may hire a cleaner once or twice a week for an hour here or there, like a person does for their personal home. Same story with the other "jobs" you listed. I don't provide jobs when I buy my primary home, even if I hire those people for a repair. When I buy a car do I provide jobs for mechanics? But what percent of STRs actually have employees and pay social security taxes, paid vacation, medical insurance? I bet it's waaaaaaay less than 1%.

Ps. You skipped over the main point. 15% is still a discount for some reason over the taxes that hotels were already paying and it took 5 years to get it instituted. Of course every STR should be paying the same room tax as a hotel. That's obvious. Even if it eats in to the "cleaning fee" scam. That should obviously be included in the room price.

Is that in addition to the 17-19% taxes they already charge for hotel rooms or is is simply making it ALMOST “fair” for hotels?  If it’s the first tax it should probably be 20-25% to make up for the fact they provide few if any jobs and no additional property taxes like hotels provide  

Google says:

What is the tax on hotel rooms in California?"  
  
Occupancy Tax: 14% California Tourism Fee: 3% Los Angeles Tourism Fee: 2%

Any insights into SB584 that places 15% tax on STRs but exempts hotels to fund housing situation? It seems bone crushing high for guests. If you were a new investor in CA market, this tax will lower your occupancy rates while hurting cash returns. Cash returns are already super tricky to attain with todays real estate prices and interest rates. How worried are current STR owners about this bill?

@Carlos Ptriawan

If we weren’t 4-5 million homes short nationwide it would be a different story. Low supply will cause high demand. And I don’t see builders catching up in the next couple decades, so expect 3-5% or more annual appreciation indefinitely. And if rates come down, expect 5-10% appreciation rates like last year.

And all the housing “expert” market crash predictors who have had their cash locked and loaded since 2020 will remain on the sidelines while the rest of us continue to dollar cost average with buying more and more RE in good times and bad. lol

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

John, I completely understand why you would say I am speculating on rates coming down in next few Q's, I get it, but I am NOT speculating, NOT SPECUALTING. It's not my opinion, it's not my feeling, it's a FACT of math, politics and economics. 

Please, read this word-4-word: Rates HAVE-TO sharply drop in very near term, ~16 months. It's an economic and political NECESSITY. The only alternative is some form of a TARP 2.0 specific for commercial finance/banking world, that could be an option that alleviates that mathematical requirement BUT good luck selling the public on such a thing. 

There is a mathematical FACT that the world of commercial finance has a mountain of NON-serviceable debt if/when it resets to todays rates.     

The '08' collapse was a nearly identical issue but with residential notes. 

To do nothing, is political suicide. It is banking suicide. There is a long list of entities that will go insolvent if nothing is done. They have lobbyist. I guarantee you, they are blaring in ear's of politicians to TAKE ACTION and if they don't, there gonna take-em down with them. 

Current rates are unsustainable in a long term endurance of where they are for fact of things are breaking from such. This is not an opinion, it's a fact of math. 

As I have said 3 times previously READ the bond charts. They universally reflect a BIG rate DECREASE after 13mnths from today. Are they all "speculating"? Just by chance ALL banking and finance is speculating the exact same thing? Come on man, it's obvious. 

You gotta stop ignoring the whole of what I put out, ignoring context, and taking micro items. I am not obsessed with MN market, I said twice, it's the one I have DIRECT MLS data feed for and that's why I am using that one and not talking of those I don't have direct MLS data feed to share.

As I said, your saying all these markets in decline, SHOW US THE DATA. No, not opinion articles, DATA. Where's the DATA? 

As I have said a national average is garbage data. Guess what, I could show you a national average data for this month that guess what, shows that the "average" home in N. AMerica has 10sqft on fire, right now, today. Is 10sqft of your yard on fire? Well, that's what the statistics show, because in 1 area hundreds of thousands of hectares ARE on fire, so, average it across everywhere, everyone has a lawn on fire. Welcome to why there are 2 kinds of lies; damn lies and statistics. 

I don’t disagree with your reasoning for rates going to be down. Everyone is speculating on what Jerome powell and co will do. Jerome isn’t an elected official, and he was appointed initially by a Republican. I can read bond charts though, that’s my speciality with real estate on the side. It’s still the overall market speculating on what the fed will do. Conversersly, the bond market didn’t anticipate 2 years ago that we would be at 5 percent on fed funds right now. The bond market was wrong then (which is why the regional banks that failed, failed. See my point?


is this data accurate from Redfin? Shows a nominal decline for the state of Minnesota. 

.... I posted the DIRECT data from the MLS itself. I don't know how it get's any more clear than that.

I don't care what articles say in any direction on their opinion of what the #'s are, I have the actual #'s, that's it, full-stop. Internet is over-pouring with disinformation today, it's all bias confirmation. Hence why I say SHOW ME THE DATA not articles on opinions of the data. And why I posted the DIRECT untouched, unbiased, unfiltered DIRECT data. 

This feels a lot like trying to convince someone the planets NOT flat.... 

The redfin data isn’t accurate? 

How many times do I have to repeat myself? 

I posted THE MLS DATA, from THE MLS itself. Now you keep asking "well so-and-so says the mls info is ___, but it's different from the actual MLS data you posted James, which is correct".... DUH, seriously, DUH.

As I said, now 3rd time, show me THE DATA, not someones opinion of the data, not someones retelling of the data, not some companies account of the date, THE ACTUAL DATA as I posted. 

This is now repetitious. 

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

John, I completely understand why you would say I am speculating on rates coming down in next few Q's, I get it, but I am NOT speculating, NOT SPECUALTING. It's not my opinion, it's not my feeling, it's a FACT of math, politics and economics. 

Please, read this word-4-word: Rates HAVE-TO sharply drop in very near term, ~16 months. It's an economic and political NECESSITY. The only alternative is some form of a TARP 2.0 specific for commercial finance/banking world, that could be an option that alleviates that mathematical requirement BUT good luck selling the public on such a thing. 

There is a mathematical FACT that the world of commercial finance has a mountain of NON-serviceable debt if/when it resets to todays rates.     

The '08' collapse was a nearly identical issue but with residential notes. 

To do nothing, is political suicide. It is banking suicide. There is a long list of entities that will go insolvent if nothing is done. They have lobbyist. I guarantee you, they are blaring in ear's of politicians to TAKE ACTION and if they don't, there gonna take-em down with them. 

Current rates are unsustainable in a long term endurance of where they are for fact of things are breaking from such. This is not an opinion, it's a fact of math. 

As I have said 3 times previously READ the bond charts. They universally reflect a BIG rate DECREASE after 13mnths from today. Are they all "speculating"? Just by chance ALL banking and finance is speculating the exact same thing? Come on man, it's obvious. 

You gotta stop ignoring the whole of what I put out, ignoring context, and taking micro items. I am not obsessed with MN market, I said twice, it's the one I have DIRECT MLS data feed for and that's why I am using that one and not talking of those I don't have direct MLS data feed to share.

As I said, your saying all these markets in decline, SHOW US THE DATA. No, not opinion articles, DATA. Where's the DATA? 

As I have said a national average is garbage data. Guess what, I could show you a national average data for this month that guess what, shows that the "average" home in N. AMerica has 10sqft on fire, right now, today. Is 10sqft of your yard on fire? Well, that's what the statistics show, because in 1 area hundreds of thousands of hectares ARE on fire, so, average it across everywhere, everyone has a lawn on fire. Welcome to why there are 2 kinds of lies; damn lies and statistics. 

I don’t disagree with your reasoning for rates going to be down. Everyone is speculating on what Jerome powell and co will do. Jerome isn’t an elected official, and he was appointed initially by a Republican. I can read bond charts though, that’s my speciality with real estate on the side. It’s still the overall market speculating on what the fed will do. Conversersly, the bond market didn’t anticipate 2 years ago that we would be at 5 percent on fed funds right now. The bond market was wrong then (which is why the regional banks that failed, failed. See my point?


is this data accurate from Redfin? Shows a nominal decline for the state of Minnesota. 

.... I posted the DIRECT data from the MLS itself. I don't know how it get's any more clear than that.

I don't care what articles say in any direction on their opinion of what the #'s are, I have the actual #'s, that's it, full-stop. Internet is over-pouring with disinformation today, it's all bias confirmation. Hence why I say SHOW ME THE DATA not articles on opinions of the data. And why I posted the DIRECT untouched, unbiased, unfiltered DIRECT data. 

This feels a lot like trying to convince someone the planets NOT flat.... 

John, I completely understand why you would say I am speculating on rates coming down in next few Q's, I get it, but I am NOT speculating, NOT SPECUALTING. It's not my opinion, it's not my feeling, it's a FACT of math, politics and economics. 

Please, read this word-4-word: Rates HAVE-TO sharply drop in very near term, ~16 months. It's an economic and political NECESSITY. The only alternative is some form of a TARP 2.0 specific for commercial finance/banking world, that could be an option that alleviates that mathematical requirement BUT good luck selling the public on such a thing. 

There is a mathematical FACT that the world of commercial finance has a mountain of NON-serviceable debt if/when it resets to todays rates.     

The '08' collapse was a nearly identical issue but with residential notes. 

To do nothing, is political suicide. It is banking suicide. There is a long list of entities that will go insolvent if nothing is done. They have lobbyist. I guarantee you, they are blaring in ear's of politicians to TAKE ACTION and if they don't, there gonna take-em down with them. 

Current rates are unsustainable in a long term endurance of where they are for fact of things are breaking from such. This is not an opinion, it's a fact of math. 

As I have said 3 times previously READ the bond charts. They universally reflect a BIG rate DECREASE after 13mnths from today. Are they all "speculating"? Just by chance ALL banking and finance is speculating the exact same thing? Come on man, it's obvious. 

You gotta stop ignoring the whole of what I put out, ignoring context, and taking micro items. I am not obsessed with MN market, I said twice, it's the one I have DIRECT MLS data feed for and that's why I am using that one and not talking of those I don't have direct MLS data feed to share.

As I said, your saying all these markets in decline, SHOW US THE DATA. No, not opinion articles, DATA. Where's the DATA? 

As I have said a national average is garbage data. Guess what, I could show you a national average data for this month that guess what, shows that the "average" home in N. AMerica has 10sqft on fire, right now, today. Is 10sqft of your yard on fire? Well, that's what the statistics show, because in 1 area hundreds of thousands of hectares ARE on fire, so, average it across everywhere, everyone has a lawn on fire. Welcome to why there are 2 kinds of lies; damn lies and statistics. 

I am interested in doing STRs in NYC (I live here) because I see how much tourism is here year round. I see people all over my neighborhood (in Queens) with luggage and there are many listings even though there are a lot of city restrictions involved. I am not in the financial place to purchase a place to STR but I've heard of making a deal with a landlord and being able to rent a place on a lease, furnish and STR legally.

Anybody heard of this or doing it? Why shouldn't I pursue this, besides the usual time and energy cons that an STR brings?