All Forum Posts by: John Carbone
John Carbone has started 38 posts and replied 1080 times.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Some more statistical data :
- 42% of houses do not have a mortgage.
- 92% of houses that has a mortgage, are having mortgages of less than 6%.
- Homeownership rate is actually increasing between Q2 to Q3 2023, from 61% to 62%.
These are more reasons why the housing sector is quite resilient, I just realized it too.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Some more statistical data :
- 42% of houses do not have a mortgage.
- 92% of houses that has a mortgage, are having mortgages of less than 6%.
- Homeownership rate is actually increasing between Q2 to Q3 2023, from 61% to 62%.
These are more reasons why the housing sector is quite resilient, I just realized it too.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news...
Based on responses on here over the last few months, I thought blackstone and the likes would never face pressure to sell?
This is all spillover effect from SBF I think. I can't believe SWF like Temasek doesn't even do proper DD to FTX, there're huge losses among the wealthy I guess from VC, crypto investment, and other private placements so the only fund that has positive return to be withdrawn is from real estate backed fund like Blackstone. I guess it's more issue for the investor itself.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
https://finance.yahoo.com/news...
Based on responses on here over the last few months, I thought blackstone and the likes would never face pressure to sell?
Post: Are the Smokey mountains still a good STR strategy?
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Mukul Patel:
Hi all,
just started out and have read and watched a few videos. I’ve been following Robuilt on YT and he mentioned national parks are great. My process would be to buy vacant land, build new, and cash out refi to continue gathering more. Is this still area still profitable and would this strategy of building new be the right way to start out? Thank you
The building new is difficult to do on many levels. If you have a long time horizon then yes. I personally haven’t found a good deal pop up recently. Rentals are strong though in terms of revenue and occupancy levels, issue now is going to be your operating costs.
I also wouldn’t suggest the glamping like robuilt is into. someone tried this here and just last week they were selling their domes/tents…the really expensive ones from pacific domes on Facebook, and they are still available.
Post: Arbitraging a storage unit as an STR
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Paul Sandhu:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Apparently there is a federal law prohibiting this practice.
I see signs on the side of the road that tell you how fast you can drive. That law gets broken all the time. I could rent one of those blue Porta Potties and set it outside 4 storage units. I know that there is supposed to be one potty for every 8 people at a worksite. I could put 2 beds in each of the 4 storage units and they will have a place to use the bathroom.
Yeah that’s true, but renting out a shed is like driving 100 mph over the speed limit and expecting not to get caught.
Your risk renting out a shed are pretty big from a liability standpoint. That’s definitely gross negligence and you can lose everything. I wouldn’t mess around with something like that.
Im not a lawyer, but I imagine if someone died in a fire in one of your storage units, there could be a potential felony charge/manslaughter?
Post: Arbitraging a storage unit as an STR
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Paul Sandhu:
You know what a storage unit is. Those storage buildings all in a row with a bunch of garage doors where you can rent out an individual unit to store your stuff. A person can put some rudimentary furniture in there and maybe a tv, a microwave and a portable toilet. They have a power outlet and a ceiling light. The monthly rent for the storage unit is normally about $40. How much do you think a person can get per night for a storage unit? There are only about 250 motel rooms in this town. Starting in January there will be about 1500 people coming here for a major industrial job.
Apparently there is a federal law prohibiting this practice.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Account Closed:
Can someone explain to me why so many people are calling it a "crash" when in fact it is a "correction". The market is beginning to stabilize to pre-pandemic levels. The pandemic caused a lot of panic, that can't be denied, on many fronts. But as far as the housing market is concerned, AREAS not nationally, are seeing dips in home values. People are starting to calm a little, the killer virus has been "contained", nerves are coming off the ledge they were so quickly pushed to, and information is becoming more rational rather than fear driven as it was a couple of years ago. So, naturally as nerves and pressure go down, so do home values, gas prices, and rent prices. For us to think that these highs would be here forever is NAIEVE. "A rising tide raises all ships". What goes up must come down.
I haven’t been calling it a “crash” I’ve been calling for a 20-30 percent decline by end of 2023.
@James Hamling initially called for a 5 percent seasonal adjustment and now he’s at a 15 percent correction.
Not sure if he is at the 20 percent level yet, maybe in a few months he will pivot again. He is on record though as saying “now is the best time to buy” even thinking prices will drop 5-15 percent. Doesn’t make any sense. If you call him out in it though, he will try to “cancel” you by blocking and calling you a communist for thinking prices will drop and jobs will be lost.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...
the institution started buying again, this time jp morgan
I cannot comment on this.... (I bet Mr Carlos has an idea why)
Why :)
I can say any thought of big-$ having any struggle in SFR segment is SO not true. 1st hand knowledge. Just wait, few months there will be reporting's of things, there is BIG things happening, B-I-G. You ain't seen noting yet in the i-buyer space my friend.
That’s right, JP Morgan using Minneapolis based realtor to close their billion dollar purchases.
I thought fed was communist for forcing rates so high so fast? Now you speak of it how great it is by tricking the public perception. Which one is it?
also, still predicting 15 percent drop by March? Or are you reverting back to the original no drop at all now?
Today they said they want to increase the rate again albeit slowly, so the normal reaction would be the yield to be higher right, but instead
Yield is going to go another 1 month low with the dollar hitting 3 month low, the dollar position is almost similar to the May position.
What's astonishing too is the Fed keep injecting new liquidity to the market, so while they raise the terminal rate but effectively they do QE as new dollar increases. As result new home price is reaching new high this month, same happened to stock markt as well. I guess that would be an indirect result of the liquidity. Here's the snapshot of latest 15 days of Fed liquidity.
something interesting with the jobs market is, if Elon musk can pull off laying 75 percent of staff off and having no impact to operations, it’s going to get a lot of ceos and executives to look at their staff and make some serious cuts. Not to 75 percent level, but there is a ton of waste out there in the labor markets. A LOT! And once the tide shifts the other way, it can get ugly fast.
yea, but elon the great is in hiring mode now ( i really like when he reinstated the former president )
The thing is when the good thing happened, it is not added to the news section, especially mainstream media lol
hahaha he's in hiring mode after firing the old guys.
here's the truth: it's true any tech company could still run with 50% less employee, however, the tech growth is extremely dependent on local talent, few projects are extremely proprietary once the project facing large turnover, the project is no longer feasible financially, tech employee doesn't like the company that likes to layoff people, instead of working for them they will work for a competitor. so there's this balance between CTO and CFO how many engineers they need vs the capital that they going to print from the future project. In Twitter case this company is losing so much money so Elon the great is restructuring the company from the bottom.
Playing devils advocate though, what happens if all of the ceos band together and decide they will follow the Elon musk model of fewer staff? Not saying it’s likely, but initially everyone is laughing at Elon thinking Twitter was supposed to be shut down by now, but he’s still pulling it off. It is pretty impressive he’s been able to keep things functional with 75 percent staff reduction.
In theory, technology is supposed to be deflationary and increased productivity. I do think corporations as they report bad earnings will think, do I really need this many people in our dept or do I even need this dept at all?
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...
the institution started buying again, this time jp morgan
I cannot comment on this.... (I bet Mr Carlos has an idea why)
Why :)
I can say any thought of big-$ having any struggle in SFR segment is SO not true. 1st hand knowledge. Just wait, few months there will be reporting's of things, there is BIG things happening, B-I-G. You ain't seen noting yet in the i-buyer space my friend.
That’s right, JP Morgan using Minneapolis based realtor to close their billion dollar purchases.
I thought fed was communist for forcing rates so high so fast? Now you speak of it how great it is by tricking the public perception. Which one is it?
also, still predicting 15 percent drop by March? Or are you reverting back to the original no drop at all now?
Today they said they want to increase the rate again albeit slowly, so the normal reaction would be the yield to be higher right, but instead
Yield is going to go another 1 month low with the dollar hitting 3 month low, the dollar position is almost similar to the May position.
What's astonishing too is the Fed keep injecting new liquidity to the market, so while they raise the terminal rate but effectively they do QE as new dollar increases. As result new home price is reaching new high this month, same happened to stock markt as well. I guess that would be an indirect result of the liquidity. Here's the snapshot of latest 15 days of Fed liquidity.
something interesting with the jobs market is, if Elon musk can pull off laying 75 percent of staff off and having no impact to operations, it’s going to get a lot of ceos and executives to look at their staff and make some serious cuts. Not to 75 percent level, but there is a ton of waste out there in the labor markets. A LOT! And once the tide shifts the other way, it can get ugly fast.
yea, but elon the great is in hiring mode now ( i really like when he reinstated the former president )
The thing is when the good thing happened, it is not added to the news section, especially mainstream media lol