All Forum Posts by: John Carbone
John Carbone has started 38 posts and replied 1080 times.
Post: Warning for STR Pumpers

- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
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Quote from @Michael Baum:
I wonder how that would work. Someone comes here and lays out a plan. We all comment, tell them how it could work etc. They move forward then fail.
There is so much subjective stuff that affects success. You could be the biggest a-hole with the personality of cactus.
I just wonder how far it would go.
I don’t think there’s an issue for people on forums in your example, but more for people selling real estate with the hype of massive returns that could fall under scrutiny.
Post: How to figure out zoning needs for STR?

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Quote from @Eric Sebast:
Hey All,
Finally just closed on a one room schoolhouse that we are going to rehab and turn into a STR (posted before about it, and its been a roller coaster to finally get to closing).
My question is, its currently zoned as commercial 1, and we can rezone it without to much problem we think, but we're not sure if we need to/should rezone it. We called and talked to the town, but we got bounced around to 3 different people, and none of them really had any clue and we got different answers from each of them (it is a very small town).
The last person we talked to essentially said "you're really going to be treating it as a business, so you don't need to change the zoning". Part of me wants to run with that and start the renovations (turning it into a 1bed/1bath period-ish luxury space) but don't want to find out they gave us bad information when we are well on our way in.
Anyone run into a similar situation?
Contact the county, the city/town, check for subdivision, check deed restrictions.
Post: How much of a revenue boost does dynamic pricing give

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Quote from @Collin Hays:
Dynamic pricing is critical to achieving maximum revenues. The difference in revenues can be substantial. And it isn’t only about increasing rates for busy times; it’s about adjusting rates on the fly in order to ensure the property is rented.
We review rates and “opportunity windows” every day. Part of the deal.
If you are not doing this, your opportunity cost/lost is significant.
This is 100 percent correct. I spend 20 mins a day tweaking, and usually an hour on Sunday night fine tuning pricing and calendar optimization to leave as few orphan days as possible.
here’s an extreme example, I just booked week of thanksgiving for $500 a night, and this week I’m getting $200 for the same property.
Post: Have any of you lived through a full STR market cycle?

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I don’t think it’s safe to say it won’t be the same. It’s impossible to know that. Nominally it won’t be as bad due to inflation, but generally the more leverage in the system the harder it falls. In every bubble everyone always says it will be different this time. @Collin Hays is one of the few on here that has been through a full cycle. Personally, I’d want to have 2 years of expenses in reserves to get through.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
KPMG even calling for conservatively 15 percent. This is becoming the easiest housing drop prediction in history. And @James Hamling still thinks there should be an alien invasion coming.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???

- Rental Property Investor
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Post: Warning for STR Pumpers

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I’ve mentioned over the past few years to be careful how you pump and promote short term rentals to people in search of real estate. As I said before, when people take loses, they file lawsuits at anyone associated.
Different industry, but all the celebrities and athletes who associated with the FTX crypto exchange are now having to lawyer up for being an ambassador and pumper on their.
promote wisely.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???

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Quote from @Nick H.:
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
My 20 percent prediction is now on the fed radar.
"A “pessimistic” scenario where prices now retreat by 15% to 20% could subtract 0.5% to 0.7% from inflation-adjusted consumer spending, he wrote in a blog post Tuesday."
That is their pessimistic scenario that "could" happen. Whereas 20% (or 20%+?) has been your high conviction base case, such that you guys labeled anyone who disagrees as "deniers"? In reality you don't agree with the fed as your base case (or the lowest end of your base case?) matches up with the upper end of their pessimistic case.
James says my case is similar to aliens landing.
also fed doesn’t want to cause a panic so they just “float” it out there so when it happens they can atleast say we predicted this.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???

- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
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Quote from @Nick H.:
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
My 20 percent prediction is now on the fed radar.
"A “pessimistic” scenario where prices now retreat by 15% to 20% could subtract 0.5% to 0.7% from inflation-adjusted consumer spending, he wrote in a blog post Tuesday."
That is their pessimistic scenario that "could" happen. Whereas 20% (or 20%+?) has been your high conviction base case, such that you guys labeled anyone who disagrees as "deniers"? In reality you don't agree with the fed as your base case (or the lowest end of your base case?) matches up with the upper end of their pessimistic case.
James says my case is similar to aliens landing.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???

- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
My 20 percent prediction is now on the fed radar.