All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

Sorry to hear about your misfortunes in FL Tim. I'm not personally familiar with the FL market, but according to the recorded historical transactions, the median home price in Sarasota county at the top of the bubble was 225k, and when the market crashed the low point was 114k. Which was obviously a massive crash, around 49%. However, you describing a 310k property not being able to sell for 65k, which represents an 80% decrease in value. But you're saying that you couldn't even get that? So what happened to the property, foreclosure? 

What exactly was the issue with lending? Was is that you were accustomed to getting no doc loans, or 100+% LTV loans and those products dried up?

According to data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, there seemed to be plenty of lending going on during and after the crash. 

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

As to DFW and Austin, what about it? Has it shifted 10% on values? Until it does it doesn’t impact anything. 

So far my predictions of east vs west coast and stagnation in Texas has been pretty spot on. Austin was the one market I had called out with some short term risk. 

Nationally I’ve called for 10% changes. Time will tell who is right but my prediction is we just have MUCH less sales next year. Housing will just fall off a cliff. 

Good question... let's take a look at DFW. Peak of the bubble was May 2022, where the median sold price was $490k. Fast forward to September 2022, only 4 months later and the median sold price is $399k. That's an 18.5% drop in median sold prices in 4 months. Almost double the number you said it would need to shift to have an impact. 

 But it’s up 6.5 percent YOY 😂 

Good question... let's take a look at DFW. Peak of the bubble was May 2022, where the median sold price was $490k. Fast forward to September 2022, only 4 months later and the median sold price is $399k. That's an 18.5% drop in median sold prices in 4 months. Almost double the number you said it would need to shift to have an impact. 

 Yeah, all this confusion started when a lazy reporter from a newspaper is saying nationwide real estate will experience 10% drops while in reality, MN price increased by 1-2%, TX has zero growth and CA dropped 15% (temporarily). Everyone reading the wrong statistical book.

 Well, let's see who's forecasting better matches the reality that comes. 

Remember in my forecast I have a running commentary of the Lynch-pin Theory that goes along, which none of these fancy charts and analysis you pull from take into account. These things your looking at are a very small select data segment, and then projects it forward in a kind of tunnel vision. Which is why they are so wildly inaccurate the further out they view, and have such sizable changes so consistently. 

As I have said, watch for policy actions of interdiction in the next 8-12 mnths now to effect some kind of "affordability in housing". It will be coming, without doubt. 

As for the "crash" you keep calling for, need I remind it only exists in your charts, still, not in reality. You've been calling for a "crash" for weeks, and it doesn't happen. It's continued to be something "just around the corner", consistently.     20-30% drop in national median home prices is just NOT a realistic thing, it's not, and there is a mountain of data to prove such. Just do some research on '08', because what your calling for is on same level if not bigger, FYI. It's easy to call it out as NOT viable. 

What's funny is how come their confidence is all time low but their gross profit margin is highest at record LOL 

That certainly matches with my way of thinking on Florida.

Glad to see cali stabilize a bit. I still think depending on fed reactions next 3 months we could still see some more dips and adjustments out West but my general feeling is as long as inflation continues it’s current trend. We will get into more of a flatline in the beginning of the year, nationally, with some slight raises sometime in the 2nd half as rates and announcement of rate changes come out.  time will tell.

As to the fed change today, @Carlos Ptriawan, I’m with @John Carbone, I don’t see any changes today - at least in the US. 

 try google reverse repo

Fed did a mini pivot today by injecting liquidity. The bond is stabilizing. ECB going to tighten on other ends next week.

The balance sheet of the Fed at this moment is similar to Q3 2020.