All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

 I did a drive by the two places Colin mentioned. I’m a bit skeptical of the valuation, but I’m not an expert in downtown Gatlinburg either. I personally think it’s overpriced for what you get. I think this is a strong bet on gatlinburg becoming the aspen of the southeast. I do hope it works out though as I think that will be good for the general area. I paid about $500 a foot for a similar sized cabin on a creek over the summer that is 25-30 mins away from here, and it is doing phenomenal. It’s a pretty large lot with a good amount of creek front. My cash on cash is projecting at 40-45 percent. But this brings back to the notion of investing for cash flow or future equity. Assuming the guy does well on cash flow, will the resale valuation reach $1500-$2000 a square foot for something that small? I’m skeptical on this unless interest rates go to 2-3 percent. I bought mine for cash flow, I don’t expect the value to be 500k in 10 years, but the 25-30k net profit a year will have the place paid off in well under 10 years. 

@James Hamling
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/...

phantom equity flushing down the toilet already. It’s just getting started. 

This is spot on. The dynamic pricing especially. It was so bad that I just stopped using it. Ended up being a phenomenal year though. 

@John Underwood do you have a link to your listing? That is amazing, I’d love to get a builder to replicate your property. Being at 50 percent occupancy already for next year is unheard of. Either you are underpriced, or you have the Taj Mahal (or both) 

15-20 percent makes sense. I personally wouldn’t go lower than that. You are better off waiting for prices to drop if you can’t come close to 20 percent. There is a case to be made where you pay a PM and 100 percent passive and as long as expenses are covered, then you will have a nice asset paid off by others. I wouldn’t bother self managing though for 15-20 percent, it’s just not worth the headache unless your day job is under 6 figures. 

A lot of people on here bought years ago, and as a result they have massive equity in their properties. As rates are putting downward pressure on values, I don’t foresee a lot of equity until rates drop, and if they don’t we could be in a lost decade for real estate values. I think new purchases now need to have some sort of cash flow instead of relying on equity. Alternatively you can make 10 percent on AAA corporate debt or good paying dividend stocks. 

That’s why I’ve been careful to call for a 20-30 percent median home value drop from peak so James can’t use the political “gotcha” by trying to weasel out and claiming that when it happens it wasn’t a “crash” 

many on here think a 20-30 percent drop from peak can’t happen because it “will be worse than 2008”.

asset prices are going to revert back to mean until fed changes course, then @James Hamling  will be right. 

Take a look at 76244….I’m seeing multiple single family homes rent for $2500 and purchases at current prices are 3k mortgage with 20 percent down.