All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

I’ll front run James’s reply for when he says “absolutely” so he doesn’t need to lie to us first. 

this is our buddies only listing right now and he’s sitting on a price cut and no contract yet priced below median home value. That “Kohl’s” strategy doesn’t seem to be working now. 

I’ll admit at a monthly payment sub $1700 though this should be flying, or scooped up by a realtor. That’s an easy $2500 a month rental with 10 percent annuals over 10 years the savy investor will be renting this sucker out for $6400 in 2032, what a STEAL! And in 2042 it will rent for $16,818! What an inflation protector this one is .

Quote from @Steve Vaughan:

It's not just new construction.   https://www.zillow.com/homedet... 

Started at $799k in May, closed at $632k a couple weeks ago. The Zestimate, which had been 1:1 with the price drops since June, is now $572k.

If they started at $725k, they most likely would've got that, plus.  Hope newer flippers are exited or only buying exceptional deals.

Yes this is happening A LOT. I know someone who had a property listed for 900k back in March, it was a bidding war cash deal multiple cash offers and he took one for 950k.  The owner wanted to float it for 6 months because he wanted long term capital gains for the full year. 20k earnest money was punted in September when buyer decided to not close. He Put it back on the market, no bidders now, and he’s down to only asking 750k and still no offers. This is real, no Walmart Kohl’s  BS marketing ploy. 

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

A lot of fine print here. This was sent to me by someone in DFW. 

They really need to move this, offer valid until end of October (need to close by Oct 31) 

If you want to fight the fed, these could be some real steals for investors. 

Check out this one…20 percent off! 

 Don't ever walk into a Kohl's! You'll come running out screaming the end of the world is here, lol. 

It's a very standard format of pricing strategy, a mark-up to present a mark-down. Ever notice the furniture stores with a "going out of business sale" for the last 7 years? Ever notice auto dealers presenting "Deal Days".    It's standard marketing 101. 

So nobody paid full asking price in that area? They just do this with every development? For example, buyers in June didn’t pay 20 percent more? James, are you advising lennar on this marketing strategy?   I thought cutting base price was the last think builders ever want to do to protect the initial investors. I know I’ll never buy from lennar again. 

I know it’s just Zillow here, but here’s something just sold that’s 5 years old, similar square footage, and lennar selling new for 390k with the price cut, seems to me they thought they could get 490k (and may have from summer buyers)

i think the Zillow algos can’t keep up with the market shifting so fast. It’s understandable though. 

A lot of fine print here. This was sent to me by someone in DFW. 

They really need to move this, offer valid until end of October (need to close by Oct 31) 

If you want to fight the fed, these could be some real steals for investors. 

Check out this one…20 percent off! 

 
it’s funny on the same day james spewing his nonsense we are seeing real 20 percent price cuts on new construction. What kind of acid are you on today? If there were so many buyers why would they be cutting prices like it’s 2008?

I won’t give @James Hamling too hard of a time when he’s wrong next winter. This one wasn’t as easy to see as 2008. A calculator is needed this time. 

If the market beats the fed, then I’ll take the loss on the chin. It’s not a 50/50 coin flip though, odds are definitely in favor of the fed winning, they usually do. I almost see this like a football team laying 14 points in a game and some co-worker who is a big fan of the underdog wants to bet that “his team” will win straight up, he doesn’t want the points because he wants the win, and he will wager $100 to win $100…..since I know the likelihood of the underdog winning is more like 10 to 1, I’ll take the foolish bet from “homer co-worker”…. 10 percent of the time I’ll lose $100 and 90 percent I’ll win $100….a lot of people would still say I’m gambling….

 Fixed rate debt at 7 percent with housing prices yet to reflect this yet? Sure some deals are out there but it’s few and far between. Prior to this year a monkey could have bought a house and made a profit. I know we all think we are great and make great deals, but we all rode a massive fed induced wave. And yeah, residential purchases paying 45 percent of income are for sure in a worse spot. They better hope husband or wife doesn’t lose a job. Oh wait, fed wants jobs to be lost, hope it’s not your neighbor that’s unlucky. 

@mike if you are getting 33 percent cash on cash then you are fine 99 percent of people aren’t getting that return. Look at James ying example. 

 People buying now are gambling that rents will stay high and prices won’t drop , everyone is theoretically gambling. The idea is, if you make smarter decisions based on the odds, you end up better off. It’s clear with momentum shifting downward, that someone who waits a year will not regret not buying right now. All of the rating agencies are expecting declines, fed wants lower prices….buying now is gambling with odds stacked against you with a lot of downside risk. 

 You expect housing to drop up to 15 percent, my minimum is 20, we aren’t far off. My yang illustration was based off of a 15 percent drop. I think 20-30 more in line and that would make my example even more profound. If anything, momentum is to downside and that doesn’t reverse quickly unless fed pivots which seems remote. People who have been buying real estate last few months are the ones GAMBLING