All Forum Posts by: John Carbone
John Carbone has started 38 posts and replied 1080 times.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am a buyer for credit investment now, but not for equity investment as the market can whipsaw anyone.
The only thing you can do is be strong in financials to be able to buy cash/without loans. From 2008 to 2012 no bank will give a loan even to buyers strong enough. 2013 banks changed all of sudden, and so did market.
Lets see how long it takes this time.
So all those homes I flipped in those years, all my buyers getting mortgages, exactly how did they pull that off? I did a ton of homes in those years. And so did every other flipper. All our buyers had mortgages. Hell, I had mortgages.
I don't understand the invention of such weird notions as no mortgages between 08-12, that's just not true in any form of fashion. Might as well say the moon stopped rotating around the earth from 08-12, holds as much credibility.
James is right on this for once. I bought during this timeframe. And I bought a primary with 3 percent down, with seller concessions and a realtor rebate. I walked away with money at closing in 2012 at 3.75, best deal I’ve ever made. Used all my money to buy rental properties at this time too. I’m thankful for the fed induced welfare housing bubble.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Doesn’t look like there will be any fed slow down.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
That's the reason why, even at 2-3 mil houses in bay area, the discount for cash is only 100k , I just look the recently sold listing:
Listing $3,500,000
Sold for $3,388,888 :) LOL They even make a joke on the number :)
That may have been (and likely) is a Chinese buyer requesting 88888 for good luck 😂 and they are going to need it too with that purchase price!
but yes, generally speaking, they do make jokes of the numbers with dart throws. I actually know a realtor who admits this stuff to me too, it’s a running joke.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Edward Kanive:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Mike DeKuiper:
@Greg R. There’s a lot of people commenting for/against, and as a lender, I have to say I’m seeing both sides. There is going to be a market “correction.” That’s pretty well inevitable. People want to spend money right now. There are more millennials right now capable of buying a house. The govt is trying to slow inflation and put us in a recession to stop it by increasing rates. Rising rates ar pushing people out of the market, and having houses stay on the market longer. Many people are getting offers accepted below asking price. But they all have equity and almost all are looking to buy another home.
Now picture this. Rates are currently averaging around 7% or higher most of the time right now (insert disclosures about creditworthiness, etc. here). The most renown bankers are expecting to see 8% at the highest by the end of the year. It should slow the market down enough as people cannot afford what they could last year. Rates should then start to come down, and most people are expecting to see high 4’s to low 5’s by 2024-ish. All of the sudden, the people that got pushed out of the market due to rates are back in. I won’t say a bidding war will happen, but people will start buying houses again, and we will continue to see home prices rise as the competition gets a little tougher.
Housing market correction? Yes. Crash? No. Rebound? Most likely. Still worth it to stick with it. Look at historical rate and home prices, take into consideration all of the lending laws and practices that make it harder to write a bad loan, and we can assume that everything should be okay.
Should. Probably. Maybe. All of the above.
As a Lender, question:
What would you see happening if Fannie/Freddie "normalized" 40/50yr mortgages?
Have you seen anywhere stating that fannie and freddie would do that?
I know people have speculated but I've not seen anything official anywhere even hinting at it. It would be a god damn nightmare in terms of rebuilding everything out again from debt ratios to risk factors. Literally it would push prices up further which is scary given how it happened with cars.
And actually as I think about it. You could in theory help push markets to further heights because an investor could leverage more cash flow faster, in theory anyway depending on if rates changes. But as they generate more cash flow to generate more properties they could end up with a scenario that allows them to appear to leverage higher ( but then pay off in 10-15 years with that extra cash flow. Just the benefit to investors alone could drive markets insane.
Yes, I have, it's currently "the" thing being talked about in the finance realm at high levels. Some say it's just chatter, others say planning in motion. High level chatter and I gotta say, it was rather detailed, almost too detailed. including the how's as to it all going down, via executive powers, as a kind of "rescue" item, etc etc. And, it makes a lot of sense. Politically speaking that is, which really when does politics ever make sense with the real world fundamentals right. And yes, I see it facilitating a bull-run of all bull-runs, pressing leverage to astronomical heights.
But remember DAVOS "you will own nothing, and be happy". Well, how better can one define a 50yr mortgage then exactly that, right.
Do you just hate math? I already showed you the difference in payments, it is not significant. Please understand math and interest rates.
And yeah, when will we have the 50 year treasury anyway 😂 you going to buy those 50 year notes James? I think the people you are hearing this from are the same clowns from early 2000s that came up with the teaser rates, only atleast then it actually temporarily lowered payments significantly.
Also, how are those stock purchases you made after the obvious bear market rally last week? I recall you touting what great buys you made when SPX was near 3800. Last I checked it’s barely holding 3600. Please continue to telegraph your investment decisions so I can easily continue to fade them.
I think buying any stock right now is a wonderful investment. The best time to buy is when it’s coming down!
John C. is a clueless little Troll sitting in mommies basement desperate for attention so he follows me like some annoying groupie 16yr old constantly saying whatever moronic anything he can in a feeble attempt to just hear me say his name so he can wank it a bit more.
As for stock positions, yeah, doing rather well as of recent I am only struggling now with question of division of capital, do I nab some more stock positions or another property? The insane discounts in market make it a real struggle, everything is on discount. Which is not abnormal for this time of year but thats not taught in high school so basement trolls wouldn't know that, basement trolls think everything is always the apocalypse.
The math (facts), just don’t support going to a 50 year mortgage when rates are high. The only thing that matters is the interest rate, which is what I’ve said from day one on this topic.
500k mortgage at 7 percent is only a $300 savings (barely 10 percent). And that’s assuming rates were the same, which you even correctly state, it would need to be a higher rate, so what is the benefit of this? Prop up home values by 2-3 percent? On the flip side, just lowering the interest rate by 1 percent on a 30 year has a better impact in terms of affordability.
However, when rates are really low, now you are talking about something viable. A 500k 3 percent 30 year compared to a 500k 3 percent 50 year is over $500 savings (almost 25 percent)
you can’t solve high interest rates with longer duration and expect that to be a meaningful impact. The “savings” to do so right now in this environment would never get passed. Anyone making decisions would see this math and come to the same conclusion that it’s a huge waste of time. This didn’t work in Japan either.
The RATE is all that matters. Stop trying to fight the market forces.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
But remember DAVOS "you will own nothing, and be happy". Well, how better can one define a 50yr mortgage then exactly that, right.
Don't you think to support 50 year mortgage, the country must have 50 years Treasury product as well ???? we only up to 30Y Treasury.
Btw this ultra long term debt is actually not a new thing. One reason why China economy can really expand globally is because they offer
Multi-century loan project to Asia/Africa country.
No, not at all. The pre '08' MBS market showed us just how fast that entire market is to adopt varying unique and new iterations of MBS's. For a time it was nearly a new product every few months if not weeks. I believe the market is hungry for such as it's been a bit starved for such since the post '08' regulatory actions.
The only thing that matters is if the MBS will sell, and how well it will sell, that's it. And as of recent there has been issues with getting buyers for MBS. How you get more buyers is simple, make it more profitable. How do you make it more profitable and cheaper for home buyer simultaneously. Change the math in a way that most consumers won't comprehend, won't care of because consumers are so instant gratification.
As Buffet says, the system is designed to reward the patient with the wealth of the impatient.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am a buyer for credit investment now, but not for equity investment as the market can whipsaw anyone.
Yeah, there really will not be a rush, and it will take time to find a bottom. It actually will take several years. I bought my first real estate transactions in 2012, my first primary and my first rental. People thought I was crazy because there was so much pain for so long. Fed trying to get everyone used to no ZIRP, will take some time for the masses to accept it.
When I predicted the housing bubble in 2008, it was also fairly obvious. I had a good friend who worked for countrywide and he was telling me how he was making so much money doing mortgages. I dig into the obvious math and realized once rates went up it was game over. My grandparents had some 1000 square foot house that was worth 200k, it went up to 400k, and I remember my friend saying, “that thing is going to 600k easily” that’s when I knew for sure.
Fast forward to now, and I see the same things in my friend then, as I see in James. Pretty much a clone.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Mike DeKuiper:
@Greg R. There’s a lot of people commenting for/against, and as a lender, I have to say I’m seeing both sides. There is going to be a market “correction.” That’s pretty well inevitable. People want to spend money right now. There are more millennials right now capable of buying a house. The govt is trying to slow inflation and put us in a recession to stop it by increasing rates. Rising rates ar pushing people out of the market, and having houses stay on the market longer. Many people are getting offers accepted below asking price. But they all have equity and almost all are looking to buy another home.
Now picture this. Rates are currently averaging around 7% or higher most of the time right now (insert disclosures about creditworthiness, etc. here). The most renown bankers are expecting to see 8% at the highest by the end of the year. It should slow the market down enough as people cannot afford what they could last year. Rates should then start to come down, and most people are expecting to see high 4’s to low 5’s by 2024-ish. All of the sudden, the people that got pushed out of the market due to rates are back in. I won’t say a bidding war will happen, but people will start buying houses again, and we will continue to see home prices rise as the competition gets a little tougher.
Housing market correction? Yes. Crash? No. Rebound? Most likely. Still worth it to stick with it. Look at historical rate and home prices, take into consideration all of the lending laws and practices that make it harder to write a bad loan, and we can assume that everything should be okay.
Should. Probably. Maybe. All of the above.
As a Lender, question:
What would you see happening if Fannie/Freddie "normalized" 40/50yr mortgages?
Have you seen anywhere stating that fannie and freddie would do that?
I know people have speculated but I've not seen anything official anywhere even hinting at it. It would be a god damn nightmare in terms of rebuilding everything out again from debt ratios to risk factors. Literally it would push prices up further which is scary given how it happened with cars.
And actually as I think about it. You could in theory help push markets to further heights because an investor could leverage more cash flow faster, in theory anyway depending on if rates changes. But as they generate more cash flow to generate more properties they could end up with a scenario that allows them to appear to leverage higher ( but then pay off in 10-15 years with that extra cash flow. Just the benefit to investors alone could drive markets insane.
Yes, I have, it's currently "the" thing being talked about in the finance realm at high levels. Some say it's just chatter, others say planning in motion. High level chatter and I gotta say, it was rather detailed, almost too detailed. including the how's as to it all going down, via executive powers, as a kind of "rescue" item, etc etc. And, it makes a lot of sense. Politically speaking that is, which really when does politics ever make sense with the real world fundamentals right. And yes, I see it facilitating a bull-run of all bull-runs, pressing leverage to astronomical heights.
But remember DAVOS "you will own nothing, and be happy". Well, how better can one define a 50yr mortgage then exactly that, right.
Do you just hate math? I already showed you the difference in payments, it is not significant. Please understand math and interest rates.
And yeah, when will we have the 50 year treasury anyway 😂 you going to buy those 50 year notes James? I think the people you are hearing this from are the same clowns from early 2000s that came up with the teaser rates, only atleast then it actually temporarily lowered payments significantly.
Also, how are those stock purchases you made after the obvious bear market rally last week? I recall you touting what great buys you made when SPX was near 3800. Last I checked it’s barely holding 3600. Please continue to telegraph your investment decisions so I can easily continue to fade them.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Edward Kanive:
Every day is a GREAT day to buy! Every-single-day! The only thing that changes is what your buying, where and how.
If your a 1 trick pony, well, better get used to a lot more cloudy days then sunny ones cowboy.
This is where @James Hamling is at right now. I’ll be updating as we move into next year.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
https://thehill.com/policy/fin...
already seeing some “official” price drops in some markets. I thought there was no inventory? I thought nobody will sell?
Also, here is an interesting quote from the article
“Hale noted that home prices “cool off as we move from the heat of the summer into the fall. But this reflects more than seasonal cooling in prices.”
Next month, there will be more places on the list and the amounts larger.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Mike DeKuiper:
@Greg R. There’s a lot of people commenting for/against, and as a lender, I have to say I’m seeing both sides. There is going to be a market “correction.” That’s pretty well inevitable. People want to spend money right now. There are more millennials right now capable of buying a house. The govt is trying to slow inflation and put us in a recession to stop it by increasing rates. Rising rates ar pushing people out of the market, and having houses stay on the market longer. Many people are getting offers accepted below asking price. But they all have equity and almost all are looking to buy another home.
Now picture this. Rates are currently averaging around 7% or higher most of the time right now (insert disclosures about creditworthiness, etc. here). The most renown bankers are expecting to see 8% at the highest by the end of the year. It should slow the market down enough as people cannot afford what they could last year. Rates should then start to come down, and most people are expecting to see high 4’s to low 5’s by 2024-ish. All of the sudden, the people that got pushed out of the market due to rates are back in. I won’t say a bidding war will happen, but people will start buying houses again, and we will continue to see home prices rise as the competition gets a little tougher.
Housing market correction? Yes. Crash? No. Rebound? Most likely. Still worth it to stick with it. Look at historical rate and home prices, take into consideration all of the lending laws and practices that make it harder to write a bad loan, and we can assume that everything should be okay.
Should. Probably. Maybe. All of the above.
As a Lender, question:
What would you see happening if Fannie/Freddie "normalized" 40/50yr mortgages?
The fantasy of the 50 year mortgage will not save your home value James. Here is the math…
30 year, $3,659.16 payment
50 year, $3,309.29 payment
A whopping $350 a month for an extra 20 years of payments. Also, longer duration would likely be higher interest rates similar to how a 30 is higher than a 15 year etc, so you’d probably be looking at 1 tank of gas a month difference going to a 50 year.
next fantasy proposal please