All Forum Posts by: John Carbone
John Carbone has started 38 posts and replied 1080 times.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Put it this way. Few understand this.
But my M1 or IB account always beat my 401k, why ? because I'm the portfolio manager for my own funds.
The freaking thing about 401k is I can't give protection to the portfolio :-) otherwise, I'm fine with that haha LOL
small kid also knows 401k blabla is good because it's tax free and 50 percent of that is not even my money but that's not the point.
Yeah I only do max 401k because of the tax deferring/extra pre tax dollars that go in to slosh around with. It costs me 12k out of pocket to get 20k plus 10 more from employer. The funds and options are dogshit though, granted it does have a virtually no fee spx
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Edward Kanive:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Edward Kanive:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
right approach.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Edward Kanive:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Edward Kanive:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I guess this is what differentiates regular passive investor and more active investors. For me, things like dollar cost averaging, maxing out 401k during bear market is "not that smart".
Better just take out all the money (buy low sell high), convert it to cash /CD/IBond with guaranteed 9% rate, and put it back to equity when Fed pivots. But when Fed tightens, all 1000% investment manager is taking out their equity investments into cash or buy protection.
If they don't do that, they will be fired and fried LOL
Too hard to guess when is right. Anyone that pulled out with CoVid, lost on record gains those first months of CoVid
Silly me back out in building a 800 thousand dollar house and settled on something much less than that thinking the appraisal wouldn’t match on the build .
Just follow the fed, when they are cutting and stimulating there is a floor on assets, when they are trying to break things be liquid.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Edward Kanive:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I guess this is what differentiates regular passive investor and more active investors. For me, things like dollar cost averaging, maxing out 401k during bear market is "not that smart".
Better just take out all the money (buy low sell high), convert it to cash /CD/IBond with guaranteed 9% rate, and put it back to equity when Fed pivots. But when Fed tightens, all 1000% investment manager is taking out their equity investments into cash or buy protection.
If they don't do that, they will be fired and fried LOL
Too hard to guess when is right. Anyone that pulled out with CoVid, lost on record gains those first months of CoVid
Who would have pulled out during Covid? The government was handing out money and the fed was buying everything. It was the easiest market to be in.
On the flip side, if you stayed in the whole time until now, your gains are almost gone.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I guess this is what differentiates regular passive investor and more active investors. For me, things like dollar cost averaging, maxing out 401k during bear market is "not that smart".
Better just take out all the money (buy low sell high), convert it to cash /CD/IBond with guaranteed 9% rate, and put it back to equity when Fed pivots. But when Fed tightens, all 1000% investment manager is taking out their equity investments into cash or buy protection.
If they don't do that, they will be fired and fried LOL
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
I think we all agree that 5-10 years from now real estate prices will be higher than they are today. People like James are betting that prices will go straight up, whereas I’m placing my wager (which I believe to be with odds in my favor - since no fed put) that housing will drop in the short term 12-18 months. Prices are already declining off the peak, so I feel like I’m playing with house money since I didn’t buy anything at peak prices.
@John Carbone guess we think a lot a like after all. I wrote essentially same post you wrote at same time.
I never said straight up. Never said that, look back at everything I wrote, I said some step back in prices, with area/market specific variations in the - and + from that. I said NO CRASH, I still say no crash, last week, last month, last quarter and year I said NO CRASH. Variations, consolidation, yes, 100%. I even wrote projections of % for the step backs. I have said it will be a lot shorter then 18mnth in step back in pricing. I forecast gov. actions that pump up R.E. pricing in the next 6-probably 12 mnths but could be as far out as 18mnth. There WILL BE stimulus actions, I guarantee it. How it comes together, a 50yr mortgage maybe, I am not sure but without doubt they WILL pump up the market, that's 1,000% certain now.
Look at what they just tried to do with the Saudis. Yes, they are laser focused on pumping things up for elections. And I am betting this Nov will not go well for sitting incumbents, raising stakes on POTUS upcoming elections, adding even more pressure to pump things up. With Fed yelling back at them "WTF, look at inflation" I see it forcing hand of not real solutions but "fluff" solutions, like a 50yr mortgage. Things that make things "feel" cheaper, but actually do nothing to the real costs which, are not easily or readily mitigated or lowered.
THAT's what I have been saying the whole time. I am sticking to it.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Edward Kanive:
Quote from @John Carbone:
I think we all agree that 5-10 years from now real estate prices will be higher than they are today. People like James are betting that prices will go straight up, whereas I’m placing my wager (which I believe to be with odds in my favor - since no fed put) that housing will drop in the short term 12-18 months. Prices are already declining off the peak, so I feel like I’m playing with house money since I didn’t buy anything at peak prices.
Just curious, are you buy and hold? What’s it matter if it’s a few thousand different?
Go back through a few pages. James wrote a Ying and Yang story, and I did one based on how I see things playing out. It ends up being a lot more than a few thousand dollars if I’m right with not a lot of risk if I’m wrong over next year. Risk adjusted, the money is on waiting at this point. Yes I buy and hold, never sell until I’m old.
I didn’t tackle it at the time - since i think it’s just a different in strategy - but your example had a few issues. For example you say principal pay down didn’t matter ($10k on my property over 18months) and sort of avoided showing the 18 months of cash flow.
Your scenario is low risk. However, I think it could be argued buying is too if managed correctly. Anyway i think either strategy works but did feel you left a few things out….
In james’s story he was admitting that year 1 was bad for Ying but that it didn’t matter, so I assumed he meant would lose money, and I gave benefit of doubt that it was immaterial gains year 1. I did mention payoff and income immaterial year 1….he was talking about LTR which has low cap anyway so it kind of is immaterial.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @Edward Kanive:
Quote from @John Carbone:
I think we all agree that 5-10 years from now real estate prices will be higher than they are today. People like James are betting that prices will go straight up, whereas I’m placing my wager (which I believe to be with odds in my favor - since no fed put) that housing will drop in the short term 12-18 months. Prices are already declining off the peak, so I feel like I’m playing with house money since I didn’t buy anything at peak prices.
Just curious, are you buy and hold? What’s it matter if it’s a few thousand different?
Go back through a few pages. James wrote a Ying and Yang story, and I did one based on how I see things playing out. It ends up being a lot more than a few thousand dollars if I’m right with not a lot of risk if I’m wrong over next year. Risk adjusted, the money is on waiting at this point. Yes I buy and hold, never sell until I’m old.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
I think we all agree that 5-10 years from now real estate prices will be higher than they are today. People like James are betting that prices will go straight up, whereas I’m placing my wager (which I believe to be with odds in my favor - since no fed put) that housing will drop in the short term 12-18 months. Prices are already declining off the peak, so I feel like I’m playing with house money since I didn’t buy anything at peak prices.
Post: Housing crash deniers ???
- Rental Property Investor
- Gatlinburg
- Posts 1,091
- Votes 957
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
okay, the middle class is a different story, that one I agree with you. I thought you want to discuss low minimum wage only.
Back to basic: It's consumerism that triggers inflation.
Consumerism is always triggered by the middle class and upper middle class when they receive more income.
[ If everyone is living like the service industry worker, the CPI would be 1% forever; it's the uppre middle class guy that keep buying the latest Porsche that drives up inflation LOL ]
...
You are correct when saying the rent had increased, but it's not because of the minimum wage had increased (this is only that I want to pointed out), but it's because the middle class and upper higher class have more income now (from economic growth activity).
Was there some huge Porsche shortage the last couple years I was not aware of?
Inflation is by far driven by the consumer class which is the low and middle income NOT the upper income. This is well known, it's the central reason they keep discussing why trickle down does not work, because upper class INVESTS there disposable income, not frivolous spending, nothing like the lower brackets. Go into any Sec8 housing, what will you see, maybe $400 in savings BUT they got 23 pairs of air jordans per person, a flat panel tv in ever room, x-box, PlayStation of 3. Clothes galore.
Poor people are poor because they spend there money on "stuff", where as wealthy people are wealthy because they invest. This is simplistic facts. I know, the bleeding hearts will pour out saying how dare I. How dare I what, say the obvious truth?! It is the central mindset that literally sets a person in which tier.
I came from epic immigrant poverty myself. My family elevated ourselves from it, like so many other do and have. It's not complicated. Poverty is a reflection of your position in life which can come from circumstance or self actions. Most, and I do mean MOST are self-inflicted poverty, which comes from there consumerism. NOT Porsche purchases, wtf!
If a person spends frivolously guess what, they won't be wealthy, because there burning it.
Inflation via over-heated commerce IS a poverty/lower class driven action. And what did we have the last 2 years? A epic handout to all those people, a weekly/ monthly stipend SO THEY WOULD SPEND. That was literally the design, give people $ to spend. The Gov policy was to create inflation, literally. And if they say they had no idea it would result in such they should immediately fire themselves because there not fit for the job! A 3rd grade classroom would do better.
^^^Finally something I can agree with James on for the first time in a while - and more domestic oil production.
Nobody questions your knowledge or work ethic. I just think you are in your REI bubble and can't see out of it. Eventually you will though.
You see a future where inflation deflates the economy and all prices. I see a future of epic political fuc#ery, where inflation raises the prices of everything, even more so assets, by allowance if not design, making a disparity gap between the have and have-not's so wide that it would take generations to breach the divide. I have every faith in an elitist ran governance that has no care for the capacity of "average" persons beyond there ability to best perform there duties of good little consumers.
Real Estate has, for eons, stood as the #1 hedge against inflation. It is and will stand true again through this test, yet again. Wait and see.
Only temporary deflation, eventually fed will realize the only thing to do is reinflate. I don’t think anybody on BP thinks RE is a bad inflation hedge long term. Fed is giving everyone a massive gift now to just wait for 12-18 months.