All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

okay, the middle class is a different story, that one I agree with you. I thought you want to discuss low minimum wage only.

Back to basic: It's consumerism that triggers inflation.
Consumerism is always triggered by the middle class and upper middle class when they receive more income.

[ If everyone is living like the service industry worker, the CPI would be 1% forever; it's the uppre middle class guy that keep buying the latest Porsche that drives up inflation LOL ]

...

You are correct when saying the rent had increased, but it's not because of the minimum wage had increased (this is only that I want to pointed out), but it's because the middle class and upper higher class have more income now (from economic growth activity).

 Was there some huge Porsche shortage the last couple years I was not aware of? 

Inflation is by far driven by the consumer class which is the low and middle income NOT the upper income. This is well known, it's the central reason they keep discussing why trickle down does not work, because upper class INVESTS there disposable income, not frivolous spending, nothing like the lower brackets.     Go into any Sec8 housing, what will you see, maybe $400 in savings BUT they got 23 pairs of air jordans per person, a flat panel tv in ever room, x-box, PlayStation of 3. Clothes galore. 

Poor people are poor because they spend there money on "stuff", where as wealthy people are wealthy because they invest. This is simplistic facts.     I know, the bleeding hearts will pour out saying how dare I. How dare I what, say the obvious truth?!     It is the central mindset that literally sets a person in which tier.   

I came from epic immigrant poverty myself. My family elevated ourselves from it, like so many other do and have. It's not complicated. Poverty is a reflection of your position in life which can come from circumstance or self actions. Most, and I do mean MOST are self-inflicted poverty, which comes from there consumerism. NOT Porsche purchases, wtf! 

If a person spends frivolously guess what, they won't be wealthy, because there burning it. 

Inflation via over-heated commerce IS a poverty/lower class driven action. And what did we have the last 2 years? A epic handout to all those people, a weekly/ monthly stipend SO THEY WOULD SPEND. That was literally the design, give people $ to spend.     The Gov policy was to create inflation, literally. And if they say they had no idea it would result in such they should immediately fire themselves because there not fit for the job! A 3rd grade classroom would do better. 

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

ginning of the year. Trust me, several months ago they would have gotten 50K over list at these prices. 

I think those all FOMO overbid buyers are created by the hallucinations of the realtors ... LOL the irrational exuberance meets agent that keeps saying we have no more house to sell

Yup. This doesn't apply to them all, but many realtors are the ones responsible for a lot of the reckless buying that caused the bubble. Most of them were advising their clients that if they wanted "a chance to buy" a house they needed to do this... 1) Go in 100k over list, 2) no inspection, 3) waive appraisal contingency  4) degrade yourself by begging the sellers to be so gracious to let you buy their house for 100k over value with a pathetic letter, 5) donate a vital organ to the sellers. 

Hahaha we should have a different thread just for this joke, what ridiculous event that you see when a buyer wanna bid house in 2021-2022. 

In Bay Area, there're a few stories that Buyer A already had contingency buying property X for $200k above listing. Now coming buyer B really loves this house, the Feng Shui are so great he wants to live in this house ..... so he bribed buyer A for $200k to withdraw his offer. Then he submitted new cash offer for $700k more than listing.
 

@James Hamling probably has some funny stories, but he would never tell them. He’s saving them for 10 years from now, when he will proclaim he “predicted” the 2022/2023 housing bust. 

I listened to the lennar 3q earnings (technology is amazing), and what I heard on there (reality) does not reflect at all at what James has been saying about “Kohl’s” strategy of mark downs. Actually they said Minneapolis  is 1 of 7 areas on their hardest hit areas (3rd tier). Ironically dfw was only in their 2nd tier and we are seeing 20 percent price cuts as evidenced yesterday. 

They plan to do whatever it takes to match housing affordability with dynamic house pricing for targeted regions. They “wanted” the original asking price but higher rates are forcing them to be aggressive on price cuts. Not sure which executives you are speaking to at lennar there, but everything you say is the total opposite of what they are actually doing as part of their strategy. 

The kohl’s discount strategy you utilize may work on low skilled workers, but anyone else it makes you look desperate. Pricing it right initially is always the best thing to do as a realtor. You want to get as many people interested to get a bidding war. Home builders have ALWAYS held firm on base price to protect the values in the communities. The fact they are now cutting actual prices means they have exhausted all other offers with no bids. So at this point either you are lying or you are just not as good at your job as you claim to be. You can be both, but can’t be neither. 

I think @James Hamling blocked some of us... He hasn't replied to any of my tags over the last week or so. I guess that's his "go-to" when he can no longer defend his stance and doesn't want to engage any longer. 

 There is no point in responding to your inventions and day dreams of things. Every time I hit with FACTS you all hit back with fantasy, feelings and assorted other garbage. 

You know nothing about how Real Estate Agency works because your not one, nor have ever been one, yet you speak and pretend your an authority on the item of which you have 0 knowledge or experience in, because why, because you meet a realtor before, you spoke to a realtor, so now your an expert on it? 

Among my designations I am a CERTIFIED PSA. Yes, I know everything about pricing strategies in Real Estate, literally, that's what my certification with NAR means, literally, expert in pricing strategies.

I am also a licensed building contractor, with decades experience. 

Also, I am ACTIVLY in the residential development world, right now today. I do not speak from theory or feelings like yourself, I speak from FACTS, actual live time information directly from the person DOING IT.     

So all the readers here on BP have a choice. They can choose to listen to yourself and the various arm-chair quarterbacks on directions of things and whats what because your feeling are so-and-so or you found an article by whomever saying whatever. Which by the way, i can find articles saying congress is reptilian overlords trying to harvest humans for food, welcome to the internet age, there is articles for any and every opinion, echo-chambers gallore. 

OR, the good people of BP can choose to read what I have to share as a real-life FT Investor, as a Nationally Ranked Senior REI agent actively doing millions in deals, who is on-the-ground involved IN development, who is advising and representing the i-Buyers, who is inside the board rooms, who is part of the decision making teams, who knows the pulse of the market because I am part of the market makers.

It's a choice of listening to either those who watch with opinion, or those DOING and sharing insight. 

Who knows better on the football game, a NFL coach, or the hot dog vendor in the stands? 

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Another area this is going to hurt them is the bracket creep on their taxes and government handouts. With higher base wages, entities aren’t adjusting fast enough, so these workers despite having lower disposable income from inflation, they are also losing out on govt benefits and paying actual taxes now, losing tax credits, etc. also it’s worse because the Covid relief act now forces tax reporting on the part time gig economy, and they need to pay self employment tax on that, plus tax filing assistance for “small business”. 

Btw Do you read the news a few days ago that for the first time, Fed is making a loss this month ?

Also today's news there's an indication Fed may want to repurchase Treasury again.

https://www.reuters.com/articl...

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

ginning of the year. Trust me, several months ago they would have gotten 50K over list at these prices. 

I think those all FOMO overbid buyers are created by the hallucinations of the realtors ... LOL the irrational exuberance meets agent that keeps saying we have no more house to sell

Yup. This doesn't apply to them all, but many realtors are the ones responsible for a lot of the reckless buying that caused the bubble. Most of them were advising their clients that if they wanted "a chance to buy" a house they needed to do this... 1) Go in 100k over list, 2) no inspection, 3) waive appraisal contingency  4) degrade yourself by begging the sellers to be so gracious to let you buy their house for 100k over value with a pathetic letter, 5) donate a vital organ to the sellers. 

Hahaha we should have a different thread just for this joke, what ridiculous event that you see when a buyer wanna bid house in 2021-2022. 

In Bay Area, there're a few stories that Buyer A already had contingency buying property X for $200k above listing. Now coming buyer B really loves this house, the Feng Shui are so great he wants to live in this house ..... so he bribed buyer A for $200k to withdraw his offer. Then he submitted new cash offer for $700k more than listing.
 

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

You can't almost double the effective wages (with signing bonuses it's pretty much double) and not expect an impact. For the first time fast food work can literally have you above the poverty line and not but an insubstantial amount. So while I was referencing end to end I do believe the doubling of low income had an impact also this time around - particularly on the amazon effect type **** that would be coming over in those container ships, containers that went up 10x. 

Yea, but gas inflation and taco/burrito/enchilada food inflation are actually higher than their temporary wage increase.  So at the end inflation is more felt by them.

For us landlords in BP we live in deflation mode, and there's always an alternative, you don't want high gas price just purchase Nissan leaf, utility expensive ? install sunrun, Your meat expensive ? go vegan or purchase from Restaurant Depot LOL.

In the end, inflation is going to hurt service-class workers/minimum wage.

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Well more evidence of the shift and things that should help with inflation.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/mar...

New and used prices are declining. Inventory for new and used is up. Full size domestic brand pickup truck inventory is back to pre-pandemic levels.

Considering how much this has also been a contributor to inflation, it’s a positive.

Yes, I posted a few days ago a dealer trying to unload brand new trucks for 20 percent off summer higher prices. Everything is going to take a 20 percent haircut at a minimum, except food and oil 

Everything eh? Rents declining 20% too? 
 

I won’t go that far to say nationally rents, but in a lot of markets yes. Min wage doubled so unless depression I doubt rents drop 20 percent. But Greg just posted an example of what seems to be one in the making. I read a stat dfw has like 50 percent of all homes recently purchased by investors….yeah 20 percent rent drop there is likely. In Lincoln Nebraska, probably not. Housing prices though yes for sure.  

Not sure I understand the significance of minimum wage... I don't think a majority of income from renters is from minimum wage jobs. Those jobs are mostly kids in high school, college kids, and people who don't rely on it as a "living wage" - for the most part. 

But even if it did raise, did it really double? Can you cite a source on that?

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Well more evidence of the shift and things that should help with inflation.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/mar...

New and used prices are declining. Inventory for new and used is up. Full size domestic brand pickup truck inventory is back to pre-pandemic levels.

Considering how much this has also been a contributor to inflation, it’s a positive.

Yes, I posted a few days ago a dealer trying to unload brand new trucks for 20 percent off summer higher prices. Everything is going to take a 20 percent haircut at a minimum, except food and oil 

Everything eh? Rents declining 20% too? 
 

I won’t go that far to say nationally rents, but in a lot of markets yes. Min wage doubled so unless depression I doubt rents drop 20 percent. But Greg just posted an example of what seems to be one in the making. I read a stat dfw has like 50 percent of all homes recently purchased by investors….yeah 20 percent rent drop there is likely. In Lincoln Nebraska, probably not. Housing prices though yes for sure. 

 I’m not going to rule out a Lehmans brother moment depending on the fed - not yet and not with Credit Suisse. But short of that I see no shot of hell of that happening in the Northeast. And nationally 20% unlikely. But guess we will see when time comes.

Also would lov ethe data that half of homes recently (what is that a last 6 months?) that shows 50% of homes by investors. That’s just beyond far fetched to me. 

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Well more evidence of the shift and things that should help with inflation.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/mar...

New and used prices are declining. Inventory for new and used is up. Full size domestic brand pickup truck inventory is back to pre-pandemic levels.

Considering how much this has also been a contributor to inflation, it’s a positive.

Yes, I posted a few days ago a dealer trying to unload brand new trucks for 20 percent off summer higher prices. Everything is going to take a 20 percent haircut at a minimum, except food and oil 

Everything eh? Rents declining 20% too? 
 

Well more evidence of the shift and things that should help with inflation.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/mar...

New and used prices are declining. Inventory for new and used is up. Full size domestic brand pickup truck inventory is back to pre-pandemic levels.

Considering how much this has also been a contributor to inflation, it’s a positive.

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

ginning of the year. Trust me, several months ago they would have gotten 50K over list at these prices. 

I think those all FOMO overbid buyers are created by the hallucinations of the realtors ... LOL the irrational exuberance meets agent that keeps saying we have no more house to sell