All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

 it really depends on the forward-looking OF the interest rate trajectory expectation

we now know in 2025 that INTEREST RATE would be LOWER in 2023 for 99.9% certainty,
so between 2023 to 2024, I guess they start buying again and remember there's new institution player in SFR market like JP Morgan and JLL.

When these two kings enter the landlord business I guess we may see second wave of melting up, but yeah, we need to wait for the price to give confirmation, but it seems like a good starts now.

 in the first paragraph it's very clear stated that the investor takes out the money not because of the problem with the real estate fund itself, but because the (asian) investors need money. I guess these are the Japanese investors, they need to redeem high-return US dollar funds because they need dollars after the yen is depleted.

I see this as a strength of US market and Dollar supremacy.

The love affair so many on here have with black rock being invincible……seems they are starting to jump on board with the obvious now. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/poli...

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@John Carbone

 Blackstone is taking a mark to market hit, for sure. But I am not sure they are going to hit the sell button, because once they do they will never be able to get out of from underneath that. I can see them hitting every measure prior, and riding out the wave of depreciating house prices(in some markets) and selling a few in appreciated markets.

And if I'm wrong, cool, I'm a net buyer once I get ahold of my taxes owed in 2022.

This year, All private REIT funds from blackrock , JLL has a return of 8-10% this year, the weakest is GS Real Estate.
It's the only private investment asset class that is still solid and hypothetically safe.

Have more information on Blackstone, wondering why their return is so good this year. They made 13% NOI growth this year. The major reason is 90% of their property has an average fixed interest rate of 4% until 2028/2029. Pretty smart manager I guess.

Huh, almost as if they have retained some really great advisors on acquisition and operational strategy in the SFR segment....... Gee, I wonder if someone like them was looking for that kind of advisor, with National presence, like say 40+ brokerage locations throughout the US, and they gotta SPECIALIZE in SFR, huh, I wonder who that would be?.......

And wouldn't that really be something if say, one of the Senior Advisors at that group, wouldn't it be something if they just by chance happened to be keyed into BP community, maybe lent some insights and advise for all the "Average Janes'/John's" out there...... 

But, unfortunately, we'd really struggle to know exactly WHO that is because work like that would of course have layers of NDA's, and that brokerage would be of some size, like NASDAQ listed entity or something, and that brings in SEC oversight on top of it all, so that person would really have to watch the disclosures HE made....... 

But I bet with just a bit of digging it would become real obvious real fast. Because they probably have the company there associated with listed, say in there signature line like so many do. And a quick google search would find that companies website, and I bet you they'd have a ton of info on investor services, and it would be some expansive stuff, even talking on major portfolio level. Probably just takes some googling and 15 minutes or so.......

I googled as you suggested. 

You mean this dog crap spac that’s merging with your dog crap company? I’m sure blackstone is running so much business through this soon to be delisted spac turd. 

 Perhaps you should spend more time improving your business and clients instead of positing on BP.

 I am RENTERS WAREHOUSE and NOT who ever the F you have highlighted here! I am so exhausted of your stalking, non stop harassment, LIES, slander, defamation! 

Appreciate is NOT merging with us, we ARE Appreciate. Appreciate is our "crown" entity name, under which we have different "limbs", of which the "body" is Renters Warehouse. But you'd have to actually know something about REI at a substantial level to comprehend a massive corporate entity such as ours, and the billions in performing real estate we hold.

Get a clue kid and stop slandering because you start publicly slandering Appreciate your gonna have a nice time with legal buddy. 

Huh, almost as if they have retained some really great advisors on acquisition and operational strategy in the SFR segment....... Gee, I wonder if someone like them was looking for that kind of advisor, with National presence, like say 40+ brokerage locations throughout the US, and they gotta SPECIALIZE in SFR, huh, I wonder who that would be?.......

And wouldn't that really be something if say, one of the Senior Advisors at that group, wouldn't it be something if they just by chance happened to be keyed into BP community, maybe lent some insights and advise for all the "Average Janes'/John's" out there...... 

But, unfortunately, we'd really struggle to know exactly WHO that is because work like that would of course have layers of NDA's, and that brokerage would be of some size, like NASDAQ listed entity or something, and that brings in SEC oversight on top of it all, so that person would really have to watch the disclosures HE made....... 

But I bet with just a bit of digging it would become real obvious real fast. Because they probably have the company there associated with listed, say in there signature line like so many do. And a quick google search would find that companies website, and I bet you they'd have a ton of info on investor services, and it would be some expansive stuff, even talking on major portfolio level. Probably just takes some googling and 15 minutes or so.......

 HOGWASH! 

And I am SOOOOooooo exhausted with novices saying "well, no-one can know...." BS! I KNEW! Look up my historical posts, I KNEW! 

I knew how covid moratoriums would play out, and I called it. 

I knew there would be NO crash the last 2 years, and I DID forecast it. 

I knew this whole OP premises was BS, and I ACCURATLY forecasted today, including Fed actions. 

So if nobody can forecast things, exactly how do you explain ME?! How am I doing what you say "can't" be done, over and over and over again? 

FYI; my occupation is, literally, forecasting REI.

long time ago I used to think this way too that the housing market is primarily supported by the job market and wage ; but lately I realized the housing market is just function of money supply. Also Housing would drop only if number of homeowners and investors are reduced, but late data shows both type of ownership is actually increasing. 

Housing would drop in long term if US Dollar is not being used in the world anymore. For example, recent mortgage rate drops are the actual output when the world needs to have more Dollars in circulation and cheaper Dollars.

Looking at history,  If it's about tech jobs, the dot-com bust in 2001-2003 doesn't impact housing but it impacts office space (there's still vacant space from 2001 that's still unused today). Also related to the job market, remember those jobs are mostly professional sector where job replacement can be made within a few months, so I would guess the impact to residential would be much less. Remember we still have a record number of job openings ever since 2019.  With the economy growing at 3 percent, we actually do not have a recession, but we may have a shifting job market (Eg: tech people moving from tech co. to oil companies,etc).