All Forum Posts by: Ryan Moyer

It doesn't hurt to ask.  It's also worth noting to them how different Airbnb's rating system is compared to most, and make sure to note that Airbnb may de-list/ban any properties whose rating score drops below 4.5.  In their head they'll likely think to themselves that some cobwebs (that you've vowed to take care of going forward) don't mean the property should be banned from the platform, and consider deleting it.

Haha love it.  What even is this article.  They list the places and then in the description of the places they list why their metrics are  not real, lol.

Seems like a big swing and a miss is that they're including non-STRable properties into the median home price calculations.  One of many problems.  But just funny to see them make fun of their own inaccurate metrics in their own article.

1. Crestview, FL

Median home list price in August: $725,000
Annual mortgage payment: $56,687
Annual revenue potential: $147,997
Potential annual profit: $91,310

For newcomers, the challenge is finding the right opportunity, says Mandy Reigart, a real estate agent with Realty ONE Group in Destin

“If I could find properties for $725,000 that would net $91,000 a year, I would be the busiest agent in the area,” she says.

Sucks for us, but host cancelations are clearly a big problem people are running into.  I'm in a bunch of Disney groups and any time someone mentions staying offsite at an Airbnb there are a bunch of people that comment they had an Airbnb host cancel on them and leave them hanging, or know someone that had that happen, and how they would never stay in one.

I think you still have a window to cancel after an instant booking for "don't feel comfortable" and then after that window you have to have a valid reason.

Turn-key with a management company?  Cash flow will likely be zero.

The STR secret is out. If you want good cashflow you need to be looking at value-add and/or self-management.

There are still places out there where I'm sure you can cashflow with turn-key and a PM, but it's not going to be a big return.

You didn't answer the real question most of us have. Why is your name Katelyn Tarr but you signed it Elizabeth Sickles but your LLC is Elizabeth Moara? How many names do you have?

Honestly we were screwed long before that.

The fed lost its way.  They allowed political pressures to dictate what was supposed to be acting as an apolitical entity into violating its mandate.

The feds mandate involves inflation and unemployment.  It does not involve the stock market.  Yet they dictated policy from 2018-2021 based solely on the stock market, at the expense of inflation.

In 2018 the fed cut rates as was necessary.  They had already been too low for too long.  The stock market dropped 28% over the course of half a year, they got tons of pushback from politicians who cared only about how things made them look and not the long-term health of the economy, and they were strong-armed into stupidly slashing rates again in 2019 even though inflation and unemployment were perfectly healthy, just to make the stock market look good as an election approached.  

Then covid hit, the market tanked again, and the fed once again put the markets first.  Only this time, because they foolishly already had rates extremely low for no real reason, they didn't even have that tool to work with.  So we got UNLIMITED QE.  The promise to literally print unlimited money to prop up markets on top of an already overheated economy.  And people act shocked that inflation was the result.  Slash rates to near zero for no reason, print unlimited money, gee where is this inflation coming from? 

This is why I've posted probably a dozen times in this forum over the last 18 months that the fed is going to keep rates higher for WAY longer than people are expecting.  Many people were expecting them to start cutting rates again months ago.  A year ago, for some people.  Crazy.  The fed learned their lesson from 2019 and 2020, and if anything they have a tendency to overreact to past mistakes.

And it's been working.  The US is way ahead of the rest of the western world in curbing inflation, yet home prices haven't collapsed.  The markets, with political forces acting appropriately this time and letting the fed act on their own accord instead of panicking, have had a decent recovery.  There's no reason for them to start cutting rates any time soon.  And they won't until absolutely necessary this time.

Seems like a brutal market at current prices.  Even Bill Faeth couldn't make it work there and listed his place at a loss.

I don't always spend $80K with strangers on the internet from across the world, but when I do it's with a member that has only 11 posts, all of which are them trying to advertise.

No wait, that's not right.

Not to put a damper on things, but there's no room for sugar coating it when you're thinking about picking up $1M in debt, so I'll just say that honestly sounds like a terrible deal to me personally, unless you think you can heavily outperform their revenue numbers.

Annual revenue of 10% of purchase price is pretty much the very low end of the barometer for STR. Most people shoot for a good bit higher. And that's a barometer that was set even before rates went way up, so it gets even harder to justify now.

But at least in those cases you were getting a solid appreciating asset on a foundation.  In this case you're basically just buying the revenue, and it's not very impressive revenue relative to the purchase price.

Financing is going to be very difficult on something like that (and likely even more expensive than normal) to boot.

There's just no way anyone knows, and even moreso, no way you should believe that random people on an internet forum do.  There are people that make a lot of money to make this predictions and even they can't figure it out, so a bunch of randos on BP are all just guessing, as is anyone else.

The one thing I'll say is the American economy has proven far more resilient than most expected.  Inflation is already back down around 3% while the majority of the rest of the western world is still struggling in the 6-8% range.  And we've done it with the stock market almost fully recovered back near ATH's, the housing market staying strong despite huge changes to interest rates, etc.

Maybe it's all a mirage and one last hurrah to hold on before the big crash everyone has been anticipating finally does come, and I've been a bit of a doom and gloomer myself, but I think if you'd asked a year ago if it were possible to get back to 3% inflation in a year with the stock market within 5% of all-time highs and housing prices still within 5% of the peak every single person would have said it was impossible.  Yet here we are.

There's just no way to know.  You just have to consider your own appetite for risk vs. reward.