All Forum Posts by: Nick Gerli

I am confused. How does a baby create job growth? The last time that I checked thriving businesses created job growth.  Entrepreneurs create job growth. Government expansions create job growth. Communities could have expanding birth rates but if they don't have jobs then how are folks going to pay the bills? 

Idk, Salt Lake City makes me nervous. I wouldn't do it based upon data by itself. I am sure that there are good deals to be had as there are good deals in every market. If you look at the data for net migration in the years 2014 and 2015 you will see a net migration of -4052 and -511 respectively. In 2019 they had a net migration of -81. Based upon that alone, I would say nope. https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/...According to the data source Austin has always had a huge net migration. 

I’ve lived in San Francisco for a while and am planning to house hack a small multi-family. Although COVID-19 has had a large impact on the commercial market and impacted residential rental rates, SF is still a desirable core market and should bounce back over the long term. I’m confident that the current struggles will also create some opportunities for creative investment.

These markets seem to have immediate growth potential, but what is the economic underpinning of their economies? I am aware of local Los Angeles housing developers who have moved to Idaho, Colorado and Utah, respectively. I am surprised to not see Missoula Montana on here as well. However, it's not clear to me what the long term fundamentals of these markets are - Los Angeles will always be home to the largest port system in the world, and thus plenty of jobs. It will also likely remain the global headquarters of production content. Yes, some Angelinos are moving to markets like Phoenix and Vegas, but filling in their 'shoes' are people moving to LA from markets like San Francisco and New York.  The production infrastructure, dual port system and great weather are irreplaceable and non-fungible. Unless you think that imports from Asia or production of TV/Streaming content are going away - Los Angeles is the safest market for long-term growth investments.

@Nick Gerli great post. I personally am a strong believer in the Salt Lake market, but feel like the overall Utah market is going to do phenomenal in the next 5-10 years.

@Nick Gerli

Being from Boise, Idaho, it’s a major bummer. Has driven housing prices up so much, most the locals can’t afford housing anymore.. traffic is terrible.

I live in LA now, luckily I purchased an investment property in Boise in 2017 when I did. It’s difficult now to buy anything else though because people are bidding $30-$40,000 over asking price, inspection waved, often same day property is listed, mainly people coming in from California with extra cash.

But overall, I think this market will continue to appreciate, no doubt about that.

I am looking at the data and think why isn't Austin on it. Austin is pushing out huge numbers too. Is it the methodology? I think that Zillow's methodology is a little unusual. I am not an expert in stats but I have taken more than my fair share of classes. Why isn't the median price used? Most stats use median prices or some slight deviation. It seems that each publication has a different data set and outcomes. There are some that are obvious markets such as Boise City. That has been on hot for years. I know that in the Austin market which I monitor daily, I have seen really big numbers.  Personally, I like the Core Shiller models. The local stats from each realtors association can also provide good data and its not weighted. Its just straight data compilations and calculations. 

None of that.  I’m saying that by the time it is a top market the deals will be harder to find.  You need to find those smaller markets that are talked about but others don’t want to bother.  The chart is showing appreciation only and usually, but not always, that reflects a tougher point of entry and maybe less cash flow per door.

 Thanks, can you link to it?  I can't seem to find it on Zillow.  I'm just wondering what criteria they used (single family/condo, population, etc).  I'm surprised the Seattle / Tacoma / Portland metro areas didn't make the top 10 of that list.

For example, Tacoma single family homes median value have increased 48% in the last 3 years ($271k > $402k) using Zillow's data below.  That would have easily ranked it #2 in the top 10 list above.  

https://www.zillow.com/tacoma-...