All Forum Posts by: Steve K.

 OK that cracked me up..  I was thinking also Joe Friday just the facts !!

I will be very curious to see responses to this post in 4-5 years' time.  Right now, I am looking at sponsors advertising IRRs in the high teens, with little to no operating experience.  And the poor investors have no way to compare investments other than to compare the promised percentage returns and equity multiples, as if that is actual analysis.

What I do expect to see is that many of these syndications and syndicators, especially those who have not been through a down cycle, will suffer significantly if either a) their operating skill is not as good as they have said it is, or b) the market decides to be disagreeable.  There are so many assumptions built into their models around rent increases, minimal opex increases, and further compressed cap rates 5 years out, that there is little to no buffer in case anything goes wrong.

If you are looking to invest in a syndication, look closely at these assumptions and compare them to the local market's demographics (population trends and job growth).  Do they align?  If someone is promising an exit cap rate lower than what they are buying it at today, in a city with decreasing population, run for the hills.

Here’s another one: https://www.businessinsider.com/heres-the-average-...

sounds like a great year.. love the videos with the bourbon.. 

Just thankful for another year in this business and all the great people I meet all over the country  ( few exceptions of course)..  Will be interesting to see how 2019 shakes out..