All Forum Posts by: J. Martin

@Jesse Mao,

"Excellent analysis. There are so many terminated/expired/withdraw listings in Woodland, Katy and West Houston (Energy corridor) in the past 6 months."

** Thank you! I have 50 MSA's in the US compiled now, so it's been interesting seeing how each state and each MSA is changing.. Thanks for the color on the local listings :)

@Kevin Wood,

"Long term the city should be fine, but I don't expect rents or housing prices to appreciate over the next 12 months or so."

** It seems like Houston always bounces back after oil drops. Just hard to say how long it will be depressed. Your expectation of no appreciation of rents or prices in the next 12 months or so seems pretty consistent with where the graph is going. Hopefully the employment & home price deceleration slow before going negative!

** I was just a bit surprised how quickly both job growth and home price growth decelerated so quickly in lock-step as the oil price drop set in longer. If employment growth drop to negative, I would keep an eye on prices..

@Account Closed,

"A properties rent at $2K/mo vs $1K/mo for B+, someone loses a $100K job may need to look to B+ properties they can afford while they transition from oil related work to another line of business."

** Good point about the different price point segments in the market. We're seeing a similar softening in high-end properties and rents here as employment growth slows and new multifamily apartments all come on at the high-end (given, rents in these properties are double to triple what you're looking at in Houston)

** I'll be keeping an eye on all this and posting back up when we get some interesting data... :)
Thanks for the eyes and ears from the local TX investors!! :)

Is anyone changing strategy in Houston? Still buying? Waiting until unemployment peaks, then starts improving, to get the biggest gains..?

- The unemployment rate is shooting up in Houston. Looks similar to the last 3 marked recessions. 
- Home price appreciation plummeted.
- Austin is kicking Houston's ***. (full details in link in signature)

And home price appreciation followed, decelerating dramatically from double digits to low single digits and dropping..

Compare that to the trajectory of the unemployment rate in Austin (given, different cash flow calc here..)

But look at the stark contrast between the appreciation rate in Austin vs Houston, and the trajectory of those changes in prices..

Personally, I'd rather be buying after unemployment has hit its worst, then starts improving.. but that's just me..

What do you think about the correlation here..? Good time to jump in..?

@Eduardo Chavez,

Is there a tie between jobs and RE prices? Did you hear about the oil market?
The unemployment rate is shooting up in Houston. Looks similar to the last 3 marked recessions.

And home price appreciation followed, decelerating dramatically from double digits to low single digits and dropping..

Compare that to the trajectory of the unemployment rate in Austin (given, different cash flow calc here..)

But look at the stark contrast between the appreciation rate in Austin vs Houston, and the trajectory of those changes in prices..

Personally, I'd rather be buying after unemployment has hit its worst, then starts improving.. but that's just me..

What do you think about the correlation here..? Good time to jump in..?

Who else is going to Airbnb Open 2016 in Downtown LA from Nov 17 - 19?

I should be there before the 16th, and wanted to meet up with some other furnished rental folks to trade tips, strategy, efficient operations, training & hiring, etc. Maybe check out some of the sessions together, meet after for dinner, or just meet up for some coffee..

Here's my tentative agenda and sessions, including some proposed "brain dates" with various "experts.."

Anyone from Santa Barbara, Los Angeles, Long Beach, Orange County, or other places nearby going..? Any other Airb&b, VRBO, Expedia, Homesuite, Flipkey, or other host coming out..?

Tag me on this forum or send me a text at the number in my profile!

After a brief break after the and a trip to , it's time for another real estate networking meetup! We usually have about 40-50 investors joining us to network at the great, quiet office space at New York Life, near the Embarcadero BART station. Bring your favorite drink, meet some other investors, learn a few things, then to the bar after!! :)

www.meetup.com/REmeetup

RSVP at the link above for the full details.

SF Bay Summit

I've also launched a new venture recently, so if you're interested in data, real estate, or the economic cycle in the SF Bay Area or across the country, be sure to ! www.RealEstateGraphs.com

Is this the beginning of the end of years of improving unemployment in Silicon Valley?

Hope to see you soon!

Thursday, Oct 27 @ 6:30PM

425 Market St, SF - 9th Floor @ New York Life

Keyword local cities for folk who might want to come:
East Bay , Bay Area , San Francisco , Oakland , Berkeley , Alameda County , Contra Costa County , Brisbane, San Mateo,  Daly City, Redwood City, Richmond , Hercules , Concord , Albany , Pittsburg , Marin , San Rafael , South Bay , Peninsula , Walnut Creek , Pittsburgh , Antioch , Pleasanton , Fremont , Castro Valley.

Is Houston already in a local Recession?

www.RealEstateGraphs.com

@Christopher Moore, 

Welcome to getting more active on BP, and congrats to you and your wife on tying the knot! :)

**1. In order to expand our real-estate network, my wife and I are interesting in attending real estate investing meet-ups in the Bay Area. Are there any in the Peninsula? I read about one in Milpitas, but that would be a grueling commute since I work in San Francisco.

I used to go from Richmond or San Francisco down to @Johnson H. meetups when they were in San Jose, and well worth fighting traffic. That is the meetup in Milpitas now. @Ryder Meehan has an out-of-state meetup in SF each month. I enjoyed the last one, and good turnout. And as @Arlen Chou mentioned, I have a monthly meetup in SF by the Embarcadero Station. www.meetup.com/REmeetup. Usually about 40 or 50 investors. And some invest out of state. Come say hi! Next one in a week and a half..

2. Is there anybody in the Bay Area who currently invests in out-of-state buy-and-hold properties?

Start with Ryder.

3. What are your thoughts on starting a LLC or S-Corp? What is the best way to reduce liability and take advantage of tax-breaks?

I'll pass on this, but take note of what @Chris Mason said regarding financing. Get an umbrella insurance policy.

4. If we want to build a team for out-of-state investing, who do we get on our team and who do we talk to first? Is an accountant the best first step?

I would decide first if you are going to set up a team of agents and property manager. Or going with a turnkey provider. There is a different level of involvement and time. Check out the podcasts and what @David Greene did, and other out of state investing podcasts. Search google for bigger pockets and out of state podcast and I'm sure you can find them..

Hope to meet you soon! Good luck Christopher!

@Joshua Ferrey, @Jason Ferguson, @Mariano Pacheco, @Corey Harris,

The event was actually on 8/27 & 8/28/16 - not on New Year's Day - but for updates for the 2017 event, and you'll get pictures, survey results, and notice for next year! No spam!

www.sfbaysummit.com

Thanks for the head's up @Chris Mason! I'll probably be going to bed at 8AM on New Years' Day!! lol

I also have a monthly meetup in SF, and one coming up soon. (free) Come out and say hi!

www.meetup.com/REmeetup

@Victoria S. I think a big part of this depends on if you're willing to sacrifice and buy a 2-4, or 5+ unit building, house hack, or just buy a single family home and live in it. SFH is tough, unless you're going to rent rooms until the next cycle makes you better equity..

I make a lot of cash flow off of my first owner-occupant fourplex in Richmond - and would make cash flow buying it today - and even more operating it as a furnished rental like I do. I've also made lots on appreciation buying at the right time, but not sure how much left this cycle has left to go, and hard to get that kind of cash flow with a SFH especially... www.realestategraphs.com

What are your plans with your primary? What do you think about the economic/real estate cycle?

@Alice K.,

Go kick some ***!! Let's have dinner when you're not busy! :)

@Account Closed, great list!! I love Patrick Carlyle's analysis at Paragon. They have a strong focus on SF and higher-end properties it seems. I don't believe they operate on the peninsula. (surprisingly, with the high-end properties there..)