All Forum Posts by: J. Martin
J. Martin has started 178 posts and replied 3656 times.
Post: What do I do with 80's style wood paneling in basement
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted - Rental Property Investor
- Oakland, CA
- Posts 3,834
- Votes 2,925
I've seen well-painted white paneling that has done OK with lower-end properties. What does the market demand? Can you get your money back on the investment? What do the other sold houses look like? Do they have ugly wood paneling, and yours would be better if it was white? Or do most have drywall, and the painted white paneling would be inferior?
You can also test one area real quick and see what it looks like..
Just a couple thoughts..
Pictures help! And locals can you give you more local market advice..
Post: I want to hear you brag!!
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted - Rental Property Investor
- Oakland, CA
- Posts 3,834
- Votes 2,925
I measure my success by the flip flop tan between my toes ;)
But I did add 4 more furnished rentals while on a multi-month road trip across the country, which has been on my list of things to do! ;) Here's a little brag from me.. Livin life ;)
Hwy 1 near Monterey :)
In AZ checking out ancient ruins in the hillsides with my sister :)
Inner-tubing in Austin TX w/ @Lynn Currie
The 'Ol Miss in New Orleans ;)
Bonnaroo!!! Over towards Nashville...
And after Atlanta, South Carolina, & Savannah, down to ride a cruiser on Jacksonville Beach.
Drove about 6,000 miles over 2 1/2 months ;)
Quit my 9-5 job the day before my 31st bday this year ;)
Grew my gross rental income to $50K/mo, from a lot less the year before ;)
Oversaw the launching of 4 new furnished rentals this month while I was out traveling, and organizing the Summit.
And got my flip flop tan line nice and strong ;)
Post: Huge RE Networking Summit! SF Bay 8/27 & 8/28/16 - 20 BP Greats!
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted - Rental Property Investor
- Oakland, CA
- Posts 3,834
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Hey Attendees! I'm about to add you to an email subscriber list for lots of info about the Summit, so please accept and take a look :)
Who are you all excited to see from BP? Tag a few speakers and a few friends who aren't coming yet, take a look at the profiles of the other attendees I tagged below, and check out the site for the updated list of awesome speakers (and moderators - @Arlen Chou, @Jeff Pollack, @Shane Pearlman, @Christopher Porto + more to come )! We'll see you in the theater at the Scottish Rite!
CONFIRMED ATTENDEES
@Troy Fisher, @Igor Zaytsev ,@Neil Evangelista, @Ganesh S., @Stan K., @Tim Kunz, @Debby Chen, @Bing Lee, @Tuan Le, @Brandon Foken, @Raimondo F., @Ofer Dallal, @Doug Chinn, @Ben Dunning, @Matt Mason, @Omi C., @Nawien Sharma, @Tony Rishell, @Account Closed !!
HOTEL - Did you folks from San Diego, Los Angeles, Seattle, get your hotel rooms yet? Check out the bottom of the site for the link to the group rate of under $140/nt. I also added a few nights for Thursday, in addition to Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, for those who want to enjoy a little more time in the Bay.
RSVP ON BP - Click on "Attend Event" at the top of this page in the event box, so all the other attendees and speakers can find you easily before and after the event! (see the pic below)
Post: SF Bay Area Economic & RE Update (Ongoing)
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted - Rental Property Investor
- Oakland, CA
- Posts 3,834
- Votes 2,925
Originally posted by @Amit M.:
so there are several moving parts we're effectively discussing. First, all real estate is local. To that end we've seen the higher end Bay Area RE leveling off. More affordable (i.e. sub $1mil homes) are still selling well. Our employment rate is super low, and most of the recent jobs are well paying ones. Baring global events, (hypothetical of course) we know tech is slowing down a bit and housing (both purchase and rental) is very high. And the stock market is still quite high (jittery as usual, but it hasen't sunk yet.) So at best we can expect to flatten and coast for awhile.
Now to the macro picture, which of course will impact the above scenario. There are global uncertainties like the future of the EU, UK in possible serious recession, China's growth, weird Russia, unstable Middle East, etc., etc. And add to that the nuttiest elections we have had here in a llooonnggg llooonnggg time ;) Any one of these going awry can set off the stock market to a sustained downward spiral. And then the US economy is at risk of stalling. And then unemployment ends it low rein. And then housing starts to go down nationally. All that will effect the Bay Area tech employment, and housing values across all sectors.
The chart J posted above show that unemployment stays the same for at best a year; usually it's either heading up or down. So that is a primary driver effecting housing values, and unfortunately it's mostly unstable. HAI was "saved" by Brexit. It seems unlikely that interest rates will be going up. How could they? That would quickly lead to stagflation, which is the worst of both worlds. No one wants that, but the question is if it becomes unavoidable? So far I'm not seeing why that would be the case. So even with an expected mild to mid size recession in the next 2 years, I'm not seeing why rates would go up. And I'm not sure (by definition) what kind of black swan event would facilitate that (except maybe if trump wins.) With Clinton at the helm I'm pretty sure we will have boring, but predictable, economic policies; more of the same, a possible mild to mid size recession, prime Bay Area RE a little soft, rates still low. And frankly, I'm down with that scenario (over sheer unpredictability). C'est la vie.
This sounds about right Amit. With Germany 10yr bunds now negative, so much in Japan, Europe in negative rates, weak growth, an already-strong US dollar, and nowhere to get yield, it's hard to see the Fed jacking up rates too much - and they're still holding a lot of treasuries. The graph below doesn't even show the 2016 fallout..
Fed is still holding $2.4 Trillion in Treasuries... If/when they can't use Fed Funds in the next recession because its already too low, watch this $2.4T turn into $3T, $4T, $5T.. etc.. Then, in addition to MBS, they can start buying other financial assets like corporate bonds, REIT's, stocks..>>?
I agree it's hard to say which event/"straw" will break the camel's back. I believe it was Yellen that said that economic expansions don't die of old age.
Maybe what she forgot to add is that they get frail as they get old, and any myriad of illness, a fall, or contagions from others could put it in the hospital.. We don't know what that adverse scenario will put it in the hospital, or how bad the event will be, or how long it will have to stay in the hospital. But I think it's a pretty safe bet that we will be there.. You're right that unemployment doesn't stay this low for much more than a year. But the Fed and Congress can try to stretch it longer if they want to.. That usually ends well!!! hahhaaha
Post: SF Bay Area Economic & RE Update (Ongoing)
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted - Rental Property Investor
- Oakland, CA
- Posts 3,834
- Votes 2,925
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
I agree with your Econ professor about the timing of 1-2 years till the next recession. I also agree with you that there's no guarantee home prices are going to drop like 2009. I would love for someone to make a case for the depth of the drop in home prices. Like you, I'm here to learn. I'm a data guy so you'd have to convince me with data instead of anecdotal. I'd love for you to ask your Econ prof these questions and report back.
"How much does she think home prices will drop? Where will the supply of homes come from? Where does she think interest rate will be headed? up or down during the next recession? Are we currently in an inflationary, deflationary or stagflationary environment? Where does she think home prices in the Bay Area will be in the next decade or two?" Thanks in advance.
@J. Martin, let me ask you this question. What IF home prices are still relatively out of line when unemployment is at 7-7.5% during the next recession? Think of the early 2000's recession. Look at the HAI between 2001-2005. What are you going to do? Where are you going to push your chips?
You can make a case for Brexit saving the HAI. To me, the writing has been on the wall. Demand is week so the yield has no where to go but down. Not sure if I mentioned this to you, but I told @Johnson H. and @David C. that the 10-year T-Bill will head to 1% months ago. It's a matter of when. Looks like it may get there sooner I thought. Take a look at the bond yield chart that the texted to you three musketeers on July 5. You're looking at a black swan in the eye without recognizing it. That's the next thesis I'll be working on.
With respect to interest rate, I previously shared with you guys that we can absorb the first 150 bps increase in the Fed funds rate without an increase in mortgage rate because the bank's margin of 2.25-2.5% is still intact. I was hoping for the Fed to get to 150 bps ASAP to help soften the blow going into the next recession. Now that doesn't even look like it. Sigh........Balance sheet recession? Deflation anyone?
Good question Minh. Even better, what if HAI is still low and Fed Funds is still super low (limited ability for Fed to stoke RE market) when unemployment is at its highest..?
(Minh:) What IF home prices are still relatively out of line when unemployment is at 7-7.5% during the next recession? Think of the early 2000's recession. Look at the HAI between 2001-2005. What are you going to do? Where are you going to push your chips?
#1) Risk/Reward. I think the risk/reward for price movements is at its best point when unemployment is high and dropping, so even if we don't get the same 100% price boom we've seen in prior upward cycles, I think it's still an overall good entry point.
#2) Opportunities w/o Big Price Dips. When unemployment is higher and the market is not as hot, there should be more opportunities for investors to get discounts to market price (however overpriced the market is), wholesale deals, maybe a foreclosure or two. In addition, lower-end markets like Richmond and East Oakland tend to have more consistent price dips at the bottom of economic cycles, so I don't mind buying more there.. Great cash flow ;)
#3) Burn that Bridge later. As they say, "I'll burn that bridge when I get there." hehe. I'm not tied to anything specific if circumstances change. Maybe pick up something in a good area near BART or CalTrain that fits my existing furnished business well.. Gotta say, since I've been operating in San Jose, Mountain View, and now Redwood City, I'm liking Silicon Valley more and more ;)
Post: Huge RE Networking Summit! SF Bay 8/27 & 8/28/16 - 20 BP Greats!
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted - Rental Property Investor
- Oakland, CA
- Posts 3,834
- Votes 2,925
Be sure to talk to @Troy Fisher about their carpool down from Washington. Should be a fun time!! I'm with @Jon Klaus! Good way to start some relationships. I would fly up there and visit Seattle so I could ride down! ;) But will probably be busy getting the Summit ready..
@Account Closed,
It's shaping up to be quite the event!! There are 30 speakers and panelists to mingle with, a few hundred investors coming out, real estate meetup leaders from around CA and the country to connect with, and will be a fun time too!
We'll be hanging out on Friday and Saturday night also, so pencil in some extra time! :)
Post: Huge RE Networking Summit! SF Bay 8/27 & 8/28/16 - 20 BP Greats!
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted - Rental Property Investor
- Oakland, CA
- Posts 3,834
- Votes 2,925
Glad you're coming down from San Rafael. And @Timothy Tooker, coming down from Washington with @Troy Fisher and the bunch! I love it!! Will be worth the trip! :) Is everyone carpooling from Seattle? Or are you guys flying?
We'll also have some contingencies coming in from Chicago, with Summit veterans @Brie Schmidt and @Danny Duran leading the pack.
From Denver, it looks like @Anson Young will be joining us. We'll also have folks out from Austin, Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, and meetup leaders from around the country, to get people connected with each major region in the country...
More speakers and topics just added, and agenda to come soon!!!!
See you all there!!! :)
Post: Any San Franciscans out there interested in investing in Phoenix?
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted - Rental Property Investor
- Oakland, CA
- Posts 3,834
- Votes 2,925
Welcome to BP! Definitely talk to @Johnson H., since he was in Phoenix. @Serge S. will be coming out to the to chat in August also and is very familiar with Phoenix (he lives out there).
@Account Closed, lol "J is a little crazier than Johnson so hosting at your place may not be a good idea."
What the hell is that supposed to mean!?!? hhahahhaha OK. Probably true. But not really looking for anything right now ;)
Kimberly, we're having our on 8/11 (Saw a Kimberly RSVP.. not sure if that was you..). There are lots of folks investing in and out of state - 40 something RSVP'd so far, and are usually about 40-60 investors there. Come out and say hi!
Post: New member from San Francisco, CA!
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted - Rental Property Investor
- Oakland, CA
- Posts 3,834
- Votes 2,925
Welcome @Samir Pathak !
You came to the right place, and fortunately, there are a bunch of San Francisco Bay Area investors on here more than happy to help ;) I own over in the East Bay in Oakland and Richmond, but have a bunch of leases in Silicon Valley, including San Jose where you used to own.. I'm definitely a fan of the rental business!!!
I don't think your goals are unreasonable at all, although you're right - they probably will change! I definitely recommend networking with other here on Bigger Pockets, and get together in person with other investors when you can. We'll be meeting in SF next month, then a really big networking event in Oakland in August, so come out and say hi to everyone! Will be a few hundred investors!
Feel free to shoot me a message or tag me on the forums..
Thanks for the shout-outs @Ryan Landis and @Account Closed :)
Post: Bay Area, CA Newbie ready to open new doors of opportunity
#1 Real Estate Events & Meetups ContributorPosted - Rental Property Investor
- Oakland, CA
- Posts 3,834
- Votes 2,925
Originally posted by @Daniel Harris:
Good evening BP, Happy 4th!
After browsing BP forums, reading blogs and listening to podcasts for a few months now I have finally decided to jump into the forums and introduce myself. I am a home owner here in Bay Area, CA and after a lot of research I have been shifting my interest in turn key out of state as I feel that is potentially my best opportunity to break through into the business as a start. It would be very complimentary to my current career as well.
I have been looking into opportunity in Kansas City, Memphis, Ohio and Indy. I've bookmarked http://turnkey-reviews.com/ to gauge user reviews from those who have used these companies and have been doing active research on all of the companies out there to try to find those who are reliable and reputable as well. Look forward to potentially learning and networking with all of you here on this site. Very great place from what I haveA experienced even being on the outside looking in
Welcome to BP Daniel! Good site you bookmarked there with www.turnkey-reviews.com! @Brie Schmidt and @Jay Hinrichs will also be out at the Summit that @Neil Evangelista mentioned (in my signature). Brie's been working hard on the site, so glad you see the value in it, and you can pick her brain a bit.. @Chris Clothier will also be out, and operates in Memphis of course..
Come out to some meetups and meet other out of state investors too! @Beau Eckstein has a meetup out closer to you, and a bunch of us will be meeting up at Beau's BAR camp event in August also. Come say hi!