All Forum Posts by: Robert Adams

@marcus i agree with most of what you said. I would add that new builds in Vegas have been adding inventory to the market for several years now (as early as 2012 but in much higher volume 2014 to present). With that being said I agree most are not 300k and below so it's not helping the affordability issue. With costs as you mentioned increasing i dont see this issue getting better soon. 

@Jay no state icome tax is huge and with the S.A.L.T. caps they have put in place I can see why it is even better for you. The weather is like the icing on the cake at that point lol. 

@Jay I remember the crash well. It was before I realized how volatile the market can be. I learned a lot from the boom and bust. I am much more conservative in my investments and thinking now than i was then. While I do expect the market to have a down turn at some point I don't think it will be in the near future and I don't think it will be as severe as the last crash. 

I look forward to being in a much better position in the next down turn and able to take advantage of the opportunities. I am definitely not one that thinks the market only goes up.

@Mike I don't use these trends to "time" the market but rather adjust as it changes. Money can be made in any market but your strategy needs to adjust as the market adjusts. I am not one that sits on the sidelines waiting for a crash etc but I do adjust my offers when buying and list prices when selling based on current data and trends. I think people that try to time the market get paralized from over analyzing and never feel like its the right time and lose out on opportunities in the meantime.

@John M i agree with your comments about Vegas in your last paragraph

@Sam if the interest rates went up 10% to 14% housing would be screwed. Hopefully they learned from the savings and loan fiasco.

@Sam in the crash we had 15,000 homes for sale in Vegas ... that is insanely over 3 months supply. A 2.5 - 3 month supply would be a much softer market here in Vegas but still leaning toward the sellers side. 4 - 6 months is more so the balance in my opinion and once we reach 6 months we qould be tipping into a buyers market.

@Chimpo your comments are turning this thread into a trainwreck I can't continue with you.

@Chimpo there was a discussion on BP already about that article.  Quite a bit of backlash about it from the BP community and about a half a dozen links to other articles stating the contrary. 

@Ran agreed

In my opinion even if the hedge funds decided to start selling they wouldn't flood the market and sell all at once as it would only devalue their own assests in the process.

The inventory increases we are seeing are returning the market to a more healthy supply and demand levels...it is only concerning if it continues to increase at this rapid rate for a long period of time. Only time will tell if it levels off or continues to soften the market.

My original post was not intended to be doom and gloom as if we are crashing but more so to discuss the recent trend of the increase in supply so that active buyers know they can be slightly less aggressive on their offers and sellers need to price their properties correctly as they have more competition.

The increase i was referring to is after thie July report for the month of august so far. 4 to 6 months is a balanced market in my opinion. 6 months is pushing toward a buyers market.

@Russell yes we usually see a slight increase this time of year. This years increase is more than what we normally see. I read a few days ago inventory as a whole was already up 18% from last month and there is still about a week left in the month. I dont have the data from 5 years ago as i am at my sons football camp and I'm on my phone