All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason

Quote from @Jason Wray:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jason Wray:

Mel,

My advice since mortgage rates are falling fast go with number #3 and do a cash out refinance it's tax free. You also can get rates lower than 6.50% right now and you can also elect to take a 40 year or I/O interest Only for the first -3 years to help maximize the initial cash flow. Then you can refinance in -3 year and lower the rate or convert to a 30 year term or other ARM product.

The FED will continue to cut the Rates and mortgage rates are already in the mid to low 6's for investment properties. Primary Homes creeping into the high 5's and soon it will get even better but timing is key. You also want to buy a little quicker because as rates continue to drop we get more buyers to the market. Then we have more Bid's/Offers and some people over bidding to win which then also causes a trend on appraisal value increasing.

If you ever have ny questions feel free to check out my profile and reach out via message or email.  I am always Networking and helping other BP members avoid lost time and money!

Mortgage rates are up. Who are you trying to fool?

Fed cutting rates isn't correlated with mortgage rates. 

Worry about protecting the investment, and re-investing cash flow in other assets OP.

I appreciate your opinion/thoughts but I am a 20 year banker and mortgages rates are Down and will continue to fall over the next 36 months. It's a shame when people who are not in the banking industry make false comments as it really confuses the rest of the people on the forum. If for some reason you wanted to get into the metrics, the mortgage rates are down not just because the FED cut but also the 10 Year treasury is down below 4.09% the lowest since last year in 08/2024 and up over 5.01% earlier 2025.  The 10 Year treasury is a very big contributor to the 30 year mortgage unless we have a Jobs report or CPI index report that interferes including bond/MBS sell offs and auction performance.

FHA rates are pricing with good credit in the high 5's, VA is pricing good credit around high 5's, Conventional low 6's and DSCR 6.99% points vary on Fico 3YR PPP with 20% Down BPC for single family homes, and DSCR 7.25% LPC with 3 Year PPP.

FDIC Portfolio also offers 10% for single family investment property purchase with Fico above 700 and rates as low as 7.375%. Now if you say these are high rates you would be speaking in terms of compared to 2021 and 2022. Do not take this email as a battle of the Ego's I am replying so that a BP member reads rates are high and gets in accurate information.

You can look at any website mortgage news daily, Forbes, Yahoo and they all confirm but again I do this every day and have 20 years in the mortgage/banking industry. So I am not fooling anyone it’s only a fool who gives false information or speaks about a market who is not an expert. I see you are an investor are you referring to commercial, 5+ units, low loan amounts under $100K or someone with bad credit then Yes, the rates can be higher.

Average person buying a primary home, Vacation home or investment rental 4 units or under rates have vastly improved since 2024. You can verify this by asking ChatGPT or AI but again an expert. I am not interested in butting heads or an Ego battle I merely wanting to correct your last post about me fooling anyone with my post.

 You took this as exactly what you said you wouldn't an ego battle.

No need to argue with you and your 20 years of banking experience. Bottom line is your job is to sell these mortgages.  I'll remove my history cause you wouldn't stand a chance.

None of that matters, what matters is I have nothing to sell. Unlike you.

At some point it comes to the facts...

The 10 year is up since Sep rate cut, down relative to intra year highs, but up YoY(3.75 vs 4.1 current). The 30 year FRM has made almost no change YoY.  Quit making predictions, and focus on what people can operate with today.

Prepare, don't predict. 

Quote from @Jason Wray:

Mel,

My advice since mortgage rates are falling fast go with number #3 and do a cash out refinance it's tax free. You also can get rates lower than 6.50% right now and you can also elect to take a 40 year or I/O interest Only for the first -3 years to help maximize the initial cash flow. Then you can refinance in -3 year and lower the rate or convert to a 30 year term or other ARM product.

The FED will continue to cut the Rates and mortgage rates are already in the mid to low 6's for investment properties. Primary Homes creeping into the high 5's and soon it will get even better but timing is key. You also want to buy a little quicker because as rates continue to drop we get more buyers to the market. Then we have more Bid's/Offers and some people over bidding to win which then also causes a trend on appraisal value increasing.

If you ever have ny questions feel free to check out my profile and reach out via message or email.  I am always Networking and helping other BP members avoid lost time and money!

Mortgage rates are up. Who are you trying to fool?

Fed cutting rates isn't correlated with mortgage rates. 

Worry about protecting the investment, and re-investing cash flow in other assets OP.

MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.

Quote from @Alan F.:

Jules and Mike nailed it, I can't help but wonder what the real estate landscape will look like a decade down the road?

Renter nation. Go check the % of absolute millionaires pre-covid versus now and then check absolute millionaires renting(in big cities, naturally). Dollar devaluation has created a new floor for RE. 

1) big, metro cities like LA, New York, Seattle, etc, or exotic cities like Maui. You'll never really tighten the RTP due to politics and monopolistic structure. This is never going to be "affordable" again and it's almost best to rent here and invest elsewhere unless you're coming at a commercial level or have generational footprint(families upon families). 

I don't say that to be negative, but all policies will favor tenants and tax the investment; either you play ball with institutions/HNW or get the F out and sell to them. Back to the monopolistic point. Food for thought, go check the biggest buyer in Monterrey in the last 3 years near Pebble Beach.

Excellent store of values, likely the best hard asset outside of Bitcoin & Gold. Bitcoin has the vol and liquidity tho.

2) Larger metro cities with growth-- Houston, Raleigh, Phoenix. Buying right is key; location, value add, DSCR 1:1 min. That immediately creates an artificial floor for buyers. No longer HNW interest in this, it's now your high W2 Income($1mil a year that rent in SF, invest in Phoenix type). No law stating RTP has to tighten, but generally will in good areas and not in excellent areas. If you're investing in West U or Five Points, consider it a store of value not a generic investment so more value add is necessary to reduce cost basis and eventually money down.

Question is if capital is better in those big metro cities-- ask yourself the risk side of it(not just capital at risk but landlord laws).

3) Small cap cities. Cities with high growth AV not %(skewed) that could attract more than one industry. Ideally one that's totally red and not totally blue politically-- meaning you can build but there's scarcity. These are the one's that RTP is a bit wide, but not terribly so. Value adds are the play. Can likely put 25-30% down at be .8 DSCR, so 30-35% down and you're breakeven. The risk here is trajectory of city but you hedge that with capital outlay in the underlying asset price, value add and location.

4) Paper cities. The Clevelands, Detroits, Daytons that have higher spreadsheet value due to deteriorating growth. Like any investment, it goes to the next buyer. The issue with this it attracts one's that fancy cheap. If it's longer cheap, it's not worth it. Doom loop almost. Never worth the investment, and definitely not at scale. $1 million in Cleveland properties equity is like 5 houses so $250k. $250k is better in a value-add, good location, down payment in 2 spots in Raleigh.

2 or 3 is where people need to invest. Most of BP can't even invest in #4.

Focus should be less on REI, and more on their income growth(via job or whatever business they have). 

1) lying or intended to completely debunks any notion you have toward this argument.

i should not have to go further but will

2) if 20% off  coupons are the reason you expose yourself to liability with contractors doing your work(will make that point 4) or the deal is worth doing you're missing the forest for the trees.

3) agents or buyers look at what date it was bought or transferred versus when it's selling. if it's short, it's likely a flip and buyer beware. the llc vs individual name doesn't mean much to the credence of the grade; buyer speaking from first POV.

to add...

4) liability is why you do it, you're fully exposed. grabbing pennies, costing dollars.

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

I never call investing in something directly as passive. Now notes can lean on the passive side but there is a lot of work to underwrite and either originate or buy a loan. If it goes into default it’s very different than dealing with a non paying tenant So long story short / I wouldn’t call it passive but if it performs it can be easy to manage

Agreed.

Passive investments are a farce.

You invest actively, then keep systems in place to allow a proficient and diligent way of monitoring. Definitely a bit more dogmatic, but when things rip or dip you become pragmatic.

Defining rip or dip isn't necessarily historical but also relative. People need to apply these principles in everything. 

Any iota of diligence on Tai would've told you no thanks.

Clearly,  there wasn't any diligence. But even worse, they likely were willing participants in the fraud/Pondi schemes of this. Just my observation.

Fast solutions have slow problems.

Quote from @Rob Howard:

@V.G Jason Okay. You're still right. We're blessed in Knoxville. 

 Knoxville's pricing floor relative to the dollar will keep it healthy; still a net decline YOY but not bad at all. Have properties there too, think very long-term holds. Already seeing airplane routes going through TYS with added carriers and routes--largest growth in the country last year, so that tells me we'll continue to see some development. More industries need to come in though.

Do have properties in Raleigh, too, actually, excellent spot. Cary, in particular for the OP, it will go if you price it right. But right is subjective. 

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jonathan Weinberger:

Quote from @Steve K.:

Thanks for the update on how this went. I remember commenting that your projections from a few years ago were optimistic IMO. Sorry it didn't work out the way you had hoped and much respect for the honest update. I think the biggest issue is that your rents aren't high enough to keep up with all the expenses associated with owning property over time. 

 I mean - I’m not negative lol. Everything pays for itself. Even cashflows. It’s just not the jet and lambo life I thought. 

 Renting a private jet regularly(1-2x month) requires about $1million in net monthly cash to justify it for it's time benefits.  $100k/mo give or take $20-30k depending on where and how far is your base cost.

You could have a built a semi luxury 4-6 plane hangar in an area that accommodates a lot of air traffic. Just create & rent out the infrastructure. That would get you closer to owning a plane, ideally 2, one you rent out 100% of the time the other you rent out 50% of the time/use 50% of the time.

What told you a $2.4million investment in Detroit would create that for you?

A Lambo isn't really expensive, you could've bought one in cash with all this money. Not the best investment, but I get it. 

one can get a net jet subscription for about 125 to 150k and depending on the Jet then you burn off 5k to 10k per hour when Use it. 

 Still $75-$150k if you're flying 15-20 hours a month. That's WPB to Hamptons 5-6x/month.

If you're flying less then that, then the time of traveling really isn't costing you unless you're also a larg(er) party or you need privacy status.

The breakeven point on the point is usually 12 hours/mo of traveling if it's 1-2 folks. That's if your time is actually worth it. If it's just a random thing you want to try once, go for it. If its a way of business life, this is one expense you really want to fine tune as it adds up but also saves your ***.

International whole other ordeal. Most expensive trip we tried was 6 of us from Miami to Mykonos back in 2021-- $210k. It would be closer to $290k now. We go commercial now internationally. Private domestically. 

Quote from @Jonathan Weinberger:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jonathan Weinberger:

Quote from @Steve K.:

Thanks for the update on how this went. I remember commenting that your projections from a few years ago were optimistic IMO. Sorry it didn't work out the way you had hoped and much respect for the honest update. I think the biggest issue is that your rents aren't high enough to keep up with all the expenses associated with owning property over time. 

 I mean - I’m not negative lol. Everything pays for itself. Even cashflows. It’s just not the jet and lambo life I thought. 

 Renting a private jet regularly(1-2x month) requires about $1million in net monthly cash to justify it for it's time benefits.  $100k/mo give or take $20-30k depending on where and how far is your base cost.

You could have a built a semi luxury 4-6 plane hangar in an area that accommodates a lot of air traffic. Just create & rent out the infrastructure. That would get you closer to owning a plane, ideally 2, one you rent out 100% of the time the other you rent out 50% of the time/use 50% of the time.

What told you a $2.4million investment in Detroit would create that for you?

A Lambo isn't really expensive, you could've bought one in cash with all this money. Not the best investment, but I get it. 

 lol 

$600k to acquire $2.4M? I think I did okay. 

Yet you make a post saying how much of a disaster all this was, when we told you so....