All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

BTC hit new all time highs.

Nothing but QE and M2 supply straight up & hard to the right for the last 4 weeks. Very curious how long this can last.

Keep eye out for gold, oil, btc price and 10 year. Curious how housing market is going sit going into fall then EOY; it looks frozen and grim. 

NVIDIA earnings next Wed. Is the QE/M2 run up post tariff announcement just a run up and the rug will pull here in June, or will it last longer. I don't know but going to run similar plays, and actually bake most of the capital in buy/write's & puts in quality, finish averaging into crude, keep a BTC/MSTR play, and have my gold already sized in. Think fall gold will see a rally. Want to see how the major indices play close to the 200 DMA into mid June-July. 

Today's NVDA drop was a warning. A very BIG warning signal. 

At 30+ PE, good earnings report won't matter vs the entire economic outlook. People started crying "manipulation" as NVDA walked off a cliff from 137, and are stupidly ignoring the catalyst of it all. 

It's the market making a very simple statement. 

That if you want sky-high valuations the environment BETTER be wonderful. 

And it's not. There is a lot of bad fundamentals slowly working there way through things. 

I am strongly bearish because these things will come out and as they come out it will be a cold shower on the perma-bull run. 

NVDA can be selling units like gang busters and it won't matter when the average American is debt loaded to the gills and economy is contracting. You can't eat gpu's. 

All this brings a sobering of the market to ask does a 40+ PE actually make sense? Or better yet a 300+ PE..... 

The sobering will look like a "collapse" in some manners but it's not, it's a correction, to sound fundamentals of FAIR valuations vs fantasy valuations. 

PLTR is perched so high on bloated BS.... 526 P/E.... Does everyone know what this valuation means? They could literally DOUBLE profits every 3 months, for the next year, and it would still be obscenely over valued. 

Apple is a 31 P/E, to put it into context. 

The market is absolutely still drunk and high in some manners. When saying PLTR is more then 10X the near future innovation of Apple. Or more then 4X the innovation and growth of Tesla..... 

I peg September..... Sobriety September.... Could come sooner but I can't picture how the insanity last's much past that. Cracks are opening up all over the place. BTC is going up because $ is going to BTC. More people should be asking and wondering why. 

If indices touch the 200 DMA here in mid June to July, the draw is usually Sep-Oct if there's no recovery discernible recovery in August from Q2 earnings or other macro factors.

Unfortunately, folks like Bessent know this so it would not surprise me to see QE if we anticipate poor earnings.

The trade to me on that front is gold. Gold will rip if equities dip, gold will rip if QE persists. 

PLTR will always be suspicious. I don't really get involved in shorting this or Tesla-- feel it can draw cult like behavior. Easy to get steamrolled. Do have a long-standing vertical spread against them in Oct 17 and Feb 20.


BTC is m2 related.

Quote from @Nir Heifetz:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Nir Heifetz:

Appreciation in the first year was never my expectation — I’m well aware this is a long-term game.

I’m not here because I’m panicking about short-term performance. I’m here to evaluate whether it makes more sense to continue holding or cut losses and redeploy capital, based on actual numbers: low cash flow, higher-than-expected turnover, and sunk costs.

This is exactly what smart investors do — assess and adapt. If you have constructive input, I’m open to hearing it. Otherwise, no need to assume I don’t understand what I signed up for.

 Those things are the exact things that should've been underwritten. You did exactly the opposite of what smart investors. In RE specifically, you'll need to also underwrite for likely a (net) loss for 3-5 years, and then understand the appreciation/equity curve around year 7 and closer to year 12.

Did you put those inputs in your assess and adapt mindset? Or are you here to come to the conclusion anyone could've told you a year ago that this will be a long game and you're not getting something intrinsic day 1?

He's not assuming you didn't understand what you signed up for. You are confirming it.

Some constructive criticism? Evaluate the quality of your property(location and tenant quality), see if you're better off being less levered and in a higher quality area. Then bank on time, cause asset correlation is going to differ here and you need to operate phys RE completely different then coming back 1 year later and confirming you have no idea what you're doing.

Appreciate the input, but this forum should be for sharing insight—not flexing or tearing down beginners. If the goal is to help, maybe try offering advice without the condescension. Everyone starts somewhere.

I gave you advice. Condescension comes with if you're talking back to someone that's telling you the truth.

Would you rather I be sweet or honest? You can't have it all. 

BTC hit new all time highs.

Nothing but QE and M2 supply straight up & hard to the right for the last 4 weeks. Very curious how long this can last.

Keep eye out for gold, oil, btc price and 10 year. Curious how housing market is going sit going into fall then EOY; it looks frozen and grim. 

NVIDIA earnings next Wed. Is the QE/M2 run up post tariff announcement just a run up and the rug will pull here in June, or will it last longer. I don't know but going to run similar plays, and actually bake most of the capital in buy/write's & puts in quality, finish averaging into crude, keep a BTC/MSTR play, and have my gold already sized in. Think fall gold will see a rally. Want to see how the major indices play close to the 200 DMA into mid June-July. 

Quote from @Nir Heifetz:

Appreciation in the first year was never my expectation — I’m well aware this is a long-term game.

I’m not here because I’m panicking about short-term performance. I’m here to evaluate whether it makes more sense to continue holding or cut losses and redeploy capital, based on actual numbers: low cash flow, higher-than-expected turnover, and sunk costs.

This is exactly what smart investors do — assess and adapt. If you have constructive input, I’m open to hearing it. Otherwise, no need to assume I don’t understand what I signed up for.

 Those things are the exact things that should've been underwritten. You did exactly the opposite of what smart investors. In RE specifically, you'll need to also underwrite for likely a (net) loss for 3-5 years, and then understand the appreciation/equity curve around year 7 and closer to year 12.

Did you put those inputs in your assess and adapt mindset? Or are you here to come to the conclusion anyone could've told you a year ago that this will be a long game and you're not getting something intrinsic day 1?

He's not assuming you didn't understand what you signed up for. You are confirming it.

Some constructive criticism? Evaluate the quality of your property(location and tenant quality), see if you're better off being less levered and in a higher quality area. Then bank on time, cause asset correlation is going to differ here and you need to operate phys RE completely different then coming back 1 year later and confirming you have no idea what you're doing.

Sell in the rally, buy when folks are searching for a bid.

They were in that former phase in 2020, and we are in that latter phase and continuing it. 

I want to see how this is all going to play out the next 2-18 months. Seasonality will play a role.

Was this in Austin?

You overpaid and sold in a falling knife market. 

Listen if the offers are lowering, your bid has to lower even more. Meaning the spread widens. Otherwise, you really aren't valuing the risk you're putting in.

You are very fortunate you didn't get blown out. 

Quote from @Joe S.:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jaycee Greene:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jaycee Greene:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jaycee Greene:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

What percent of that 40 properties were bought 2022 or prior, and how much did that makeup of the 5.6M of equity in 2024?

What was the DSCR ratio before re-financing?

@V.G Jason 55% of the properties were acquired in 2022 or earlier. Those pre-2023 properties represented 59% of the overall value of those 40 properties.

With your question about the DSCR before the re-financing, are you asking what the minimum DSC ratio was from the various lenders on those loans?

DSCR before the re-financing.

The 59% of value before the 40 properties, were how many properties of the 40 to be exact?

@V.G Jason His DSCR pre-portfolio refinance was above 1.50x and his LTV was ~ 53%

22 properties (55% * 40)

 I asked the same thing twice. 

So 59% of the value of his properties were in 22 properties. 18 were the other 40%. All these properties are pretty equally valuated. 

What were 2023- current rates in those 18? And is that 1.5 + DSCR including the 18 if so, how much down did he put?

@V.G Jason Yes, the properties were fairly equally valued. My client tended to buy the same "type" and "size" of SFR within about a 5 miles radius.

For his pre-2023 properties, his average interest rate was 6.07%. For post 2022 deals, the average interest rate was 7.25%. Keep in mind, the interest rate for the cash out refi was ALMOST irrelevant. What he valued most was the capital that he could unlock without having to sell any of his properties.

What might help here is how he acquired/financed most of his deals.

On average, he bought each of his rehab properties for less than $50k, put at least $75k into the rehabs (a few were as much as $100k). On average, he usually put 20%-30% in on the purchase price, but we used HMLs for rehab financing, with many doing up to 100% of the rehab costs. And when the properties were stabilized, the ARVs would be in the $170k-$180k range with rents around $1.10-$1.20/SF. So, then we'd refi into a DSCR loan with a local bank or credit union that usually had minimums DSCRs of 1.20x-1.25x.

Do you have similar properties that you're looking to refinance like this?

 I have more properties, just don't intend to re-finance or re-structure like this. 

Just I have to yet find someone that invested post 2023 and pre 2023 that have had mirror like results. 

He is one of the few, and good for him. Surprised his rate was so high pre-2023, did he not re-finance then?

Most everyone who bought pre-2023 was better suited to diversify from RE. Only way RE is working post 2023--granted small sample size-- is less levered and capex as a top line not bottom line exposure.  And if done right, still absolutely excellent. I just am hearing from almost everyone(agents, sellers, recent buyers) nothing but regrets and stalling. 

I question the desire to re-finance, what's next for the capital? At 6.69 I still would rather own the debt than necessarily own the property.  Obviously this depends on property, but 10-20 low-grade properties I rather condense to 3-7 excellent properties & mortgage notes. 

 You mentioned you would rather own the debt at 6.69…..

If you like making first position Loans in Texas, I know someone that should be a good fit for that. 😉😉

 Can find better in the private space without needing to take this massive risk that comes at the 12% route in an aggregate. Can find 12% at an individual deal level that's asset-backed, those I like. Very hard to find, but possible. 

6.7% I would rather buy than re-lever in at 6.7%. But I am fortunate to have better choices. 

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Mean reversion

 I thought real estate only went up? Mean reversion does not happen in real estate.... Everything but....

 Long game, it'll be up and to the right in most cities and most cases. But yes, tell someone on here mean reversion happens to RE, let alone an agent...god forbid. 

Who here invested post Jan 1, 2023, that followed all the basics preached here with 20-25%(or lowest amount) down, capex/vacancies at like $5-10k total, is able to push through?

I doubt in 2027 it'll get any easier, I feel 2030 is a glimmer of hope. If you can't hold tight, you should've never grabbed on. That's another point that's a foul here, suggesting to invest in something besides RE like equities. Most people here shouldn't be investing at all, should focus on paying down their obnoxious debt. 

Mean reversion

Quote from @Jaycee Greene:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jaycee Greene:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jaycee Greene:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

What percent of that 40 properties were bought 2022 or prior, and how much did that makeup of the 5.6M of equity in 2024?

What was the DSCR ratio before re-financing?

@V.G Jason 55% of the properties were acquired in 2022 or earlier. Those pre-2023 properties represented 59% of the overall value of those 40 properties.

With your question about the DSCR before the re-financing, are you asking what the minimum DSC ratio was from the various lenders on those loans?

DSCR before the re-financing.

The 59% of value before the 40 properties, were how many properties of the 40 to be exact?

@V.G Jason His DSCR pre-portfolio refinance was above 1.50x and his LTV was ~ 53%

22 properties (55% * 40)

 I asked the same thing twice. 

So 59% of the value of his properties were in 22 properties. 18 were the other 40%. All these properties are pretty equally valuated. 

What were 2023- current rates in those 18? And is that 1.5 + DSCR including the 18 if so, how much down did he put?

@V.G Jason Yes, the properties were fairly equally valued. My client tended to buy the same "type" and "size" of SFR within about a 5 miles radius.

For his pre-2023 properties, his average interest rate was 6.07%. For post 2022 deals, the average interest rate was 7.25%. Keep in mind, the interest rate for the cash out refi was ALMOST irrelevant. What he valued most was the capital that he could unlock without having to sell any of his properties.

What might help here is how he acquired/financed most of his deals.

On average, he bought each of his rehab properties for less than $50k, put at least $75k into the rehabs (a few were as much as $100k). On average, he usually put 20%-30% in on the purchase price, but we used HMLs for rehab financing, with many doing up to 100% of the rehab costs. And when the properties were stabilized, the ARVs would be in the $170k-$180k range with rents around $1.10-$1.20/SF. So, then we'd refi into a DSCR loan with a local bank or credit union that usually had minimums DSCRs of 1.20x-1.25x.

Do you have similar properties that you're looking to refinance like this?

 I have more properties, just don't intend to re-finance or re-structure like this. 

Just I have to yet find someone that invested post 2023 and pre 2023 that have had mirror like results. 

He is one of the few, and good for him. Surprised his rate was so high pre-2023, did he not re-finance then?

Most everyone who bought pre-2023 was better suited to diversify from RE. Only way RE is working post 2023--granted small sample size-- is less levered and capex as a top line not bottom line exposure.  And if done right, still absolutely excellent. I just am hearing from almost everyone(agents, sellers, recent buyers) nothing but regrets and stalling. 

I question the desire to re-finance, what's next for the capital? At 6.69 I still would rather own the debt than necessarily own the property.  Obviously this depends on property, but 10-20 low-grade properties I rather condense to 3-7 excellent properties & mortgage notes.