All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason

The only reason it's taken this long is because as amateur as the flippers were-- so were the buyers. And even worse-- the egregious agents on and off this forum that kept pumping the dream. The stagnation of the market took all of 2024.

RE takes a long time to season, and it's now just about being put in the oven.

3 Votes

Quote from @Ken M.:

What do you mean there isn't a foreclosure tsunami coming this way? Buy right (correctly) now, so you won't regret later.

If you are buying houses at current MLS prices, you are headed for trouble.

The last three properties I bought for my investors were at 85% of current market value AFTER my fee. (yes, I can provide them for you too) What do you think you are doing buying at full cost? Crazy! Plus, they simply took over the 2.75% to 3.5% loans. Properties are in AZ, TX, GA, OH, NOT CA, WA or FL. The market doesn't warrant those areas.

HUD housing report

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/pdf/Housi...

Don't think it'll be a foreclosure tsunami, could be wrong.

But definitely believe this is a falling knife; buy right or die by not. I operate in a host of those markets, and am definitely getting more pressure by agents/sellers than ever before and it's growing. Tons of these (same) agents/sellers were saying they are re-listing Q2 and it'll be okay-- if it's not okay in April, then if there's no fundamental change but constant trend this will be a pretty bad Q3-Q4.

1 Vote

Bid deeper.

Discount their lack of clarity, and assume something you're missing. Don't be forgiving, that is just reckless.

2 Votes

Phoenix, Arizona

Historic lows doesn't mean much, when inputs are not fully transparent and then the trend is pointing a bad(or good for investors) direction. This is definitely something to watch.

Feel like commercial kept getting that debt service pushed back, and clearly resi too. Don't think it creates a free-fall, but it just points to more opportunity in a very frozen market.

Corporate debt is the real macro thing to watch. The RE thing to watch is just this, among other things.

1 Vote

Quote from @Peter W.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @James Hamling:

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Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Bruce Woodruff

good post, concise statements! I think I agree with... some to most of it?

"everyone else needs the USA more than we need them" - I have no idea how to validate that. maybe it is true. how would you measure it?

I think the US is a more desirable place to live and do business than much of the rest of the world.

to your point 5, I do think there is a job shortage that is likely to persist... but i don't know if it's in the most exciting of fields. for example, i believe we will need hundreds of thousands or potentially even millions of home health care aides.

the people telling us that AI is going to AI everything are the people selling AI.

"everyone else needs the USA more than we need them" - I have no idea how to validate that. maybe it is true. how would you measure it?

We assume that....but just ask around or think about it deeply. WHo else would be in the #1 position? Some people might say China....but their economy is a 'house of cards' as we hear over and over, plus a totalitarian Communist regime is not likely to be trusted, so not them. The EU? Too fragmented and diverse to be powerful enough. They can't even protect themselves without the US, hence NATO. So not them. India? Nope, lol....

It's really just us.

the people telling us that AI is going to AI everything are the people selling AI.

So true, right? And AI will always have a huge trust factor.

America is FAR from being the "trusted" person on the international stage. At least, not trusted in a good way.

Yes, I would say China and even Rusia are far more "trusted" internationally than USA.

The USA has a long history of stabbing people in the back. Or meddling in foreign nations affairs and only ever making things far worse.

Example, Iran. The Iran we have today, that USA hates, that so many hate, is all thanks to USA. Many are probably just a bit too young to remember it all. We really f'd that country up.

There is a long list of countries the USA has used, abused, and the people don't forget.

China does not have that history. Nor even Russia. USA is king-Con on the international stage.

This is why our allies don't ever even fully trust us, because they've seen us F so many others and we just say "yeah, but, were like buddies n all, we wouldn't do that to you...." until we do.

Afghanistan is another. In 80's we made so many great promises, and Osama was our operative. We trained and funded them. And then when they did the job we gave them, when they achieved all the goals, we f'd em hard. So hard, that they never forgot it. And what happened, something far worse came in and took over and there we are back again many years later to deal with a mess we could have avoided if we had just honored our promises.

And than we did it AGAIN......

If you think the world is in some love-fest with USA, that's because you havn't been out around the world. Most places in the world have a very negative perception of USA and Americans.

And fact is USA earned that. Only way to change it is to hold self accountable and stop the BS. Stop "nation building" which is code word for nation imploding given its trackrecord.

China is HUGE in Africa. There taking over and Africa is THE resources powerhouse. What's USA doing, saber rattling about making Gaza a damn resort..... wtf.....

China builds roads, hospitals, infrastructure, is taking over a continent with there smiles and gifts. USA could learn a thing or 12 from them.

We can't even keep Russia in check who is a laughing stock compared to China.

The world does not need the USA, they simply are happy to use the USA if and when it suits them. NATO, China, all great examples of this. USA is #1 at being used, because we like the ego-stroke. Europe giggles and says they'll happily let USA enjoy the ego and let them enjoy the wealth. There not dumb.

Get out there, travel the world, find out for yourself. The reality is far different than the domestic propaganda.

I usually agrree with ya.....but I really believe that, given the choice, most nations would rather be like us, and do business with us, than either China or Russia. And yes, I've travelled around a good bit....I see and hear both the disdain (and a little bit of jealosy) and the love and admiration for America.

Completely agree that our foreign policy has been a nightmare at times....under both parties. Misguided good intentions at best and outright greed and power mongering at worst. Bring back the Shah.
And Great Britain and other European powers have nothing to talk to us about...remember British Petroleum and Saudi Arabia...? Talk about a power grab.....

It's really the theory of America that people love. And unfortunately, the actual practice or actions that have made unnecessary enemies and disdain.

Iraq is a good example of what I am trying to say.

When we first rolled in there, in was nothing but cheer's, flowers, hug's n love. It was amazing. Next thing, the local military/police just wanted a chance to do normal things of running and helping there country, under USA control etc.. There big-wig general was all set. It was a slam dunk.

Than these D.C. morons took over and acted as if we were still in active combat. Demanded us control thru n thru, that nope all the soldiers, Generals, all of em were out and we'd instill something else. Complete idiocy. 48hrs later things started exploding.

And the rest is history.

Nothing was gained by any of it, and a hell of a lot was lost, all for the sake of power/money grab to funnel everything through big-corp..

That's the kind of stuff that the rest of the world leaders have seen and why none of em truly trust us. And USA earned that distrust.

And across Africa, yes, they do prefer to work with China or Russia vs USA in many ways because there is fear that USA will change there mind mid-stream, maybe decide there government needs to be changed, overthrown, or whatever. Because we've done that, a lot.

I don't think they necessarily "like" Russia or China, but they don't fear the partnership with them like they do USA. And that cost's the USA opportunaties.

Our meddling to "make things better" almost never works out. Afghanistan (twice now), iraq (3 times now), Syria, Iran, Libya, Ukraine, Vietnam, Korea...... Our list of fails is long. Try to name some "nation building" we got right......

USA has gotta change the way we try to influence things or were just gonna keep building that list of distrust. And work on understanding we don't really always know what's best in foreign nations and foreign cultures.

We started getting things right in Iraq when we started focusing on taking a back-seat and assisting vs being the "nation builder" and that only happened because of ISIS, yet another line on USA's "whopsies" list.

Korea was the same, we had it done and in the can until McArthur wanted to really make sure he was set for a POTUS run and pressed the Chinease into getting into it. And all the way back to the 38th and where we sit today. There would be no "Rocket-Man" if he hadn't done that stupidity. And he was warned, i know because I knew the Lt Col who warned him personally and got it straight from the horses mouth himself.

The first step in solving a problem is first admitting you got one.

The USA is not loved, cherished and trusted in the world. We need to do something about that.

Yeah, nothing says that we’re worthy of love, trust, and cherishing than insulting the leaders of other countries (Canada and Ukraine), threatening to take them over (Canada, Greenland (part of Denmark) and imposing economically incoherent tariffs on the world.

Looks like those Econ 101 textbooks are re-asserting themselves, James. Kinda like what Neal Degrass Tyson said about science, it works, and it doesn’t care what we think.

I get where your coming from but find it wildly misplaced tunnel-vision to place all the blame on Trump the POTUS, the person, or his negotiation style.

There is some precedent for the negotiation style Trump has engaged in.

The size, scale and severity of the problems POTUS Trump inherited is so catastrophic, that choosing a path of extremity, it has some merit.

The reality is the USA is up against a choice of either insolvency, or hyper-inflation to delay insolvency which itself will end in insolvency.

This reality is mathematical. The math does not care what the political affiliation is, what the feelings are, nor how much one accepts or denies the reality. It is what it is. And decades of can-kicking has gotten us here.

I blame a series of Presidents and administrations who avoided actions and shoveled the mess forward to future generations to sort out, compounding the problem again and again.

I am 100% for reciprocal tariff's.

Keyword RECIPROCAL, meaning "you do this to us so we will give back exactly what your doing unto us".

If you are for "Free-Trade" than you too should be 100% for this.

Because "free-trade" is anti-tariff, is it not? Doesn't it mean 0 tariff's, on BOTH sides not just 1 side?????

It has NOT been that. It HAS been the world holding tariff's AGAINST USA, and the USA letting them send to us for FREE. That's ABUSE.

Reciprocal tariff's are LOOOOONG overdue. They should have been instituted from the start. As a requirement to "Free Trade", to assure actual "Free-Trade".

I think a lot of problems with the anti-Trump sentiment is some FAKE NEWS that Trump just randomly added tariff's where none were. NO, he is doing it IN RESPONSE TO the tariff's on USA, and have long been on USA.

Yes, that includes by our so called "allies".

Yup, that's right, these "allies" have been using and abusing the USA for years on end. So exactly how much of an ally are they?

They much more so fit the term of parasite than ally. Look it up, that's just the facts.

Next to all NATO members for years on end have simply refused to pay there contractually agreed to investment in NATO, using/abusing USA to carry there share.

It's messed up. Would you pay for golf, drinks and lunch for all your friends year after year after year because they all say you make more then them?

The whole time they are spending there money on things you'd love to have, universal health care or whatever, but you can't afford it because your paying for there security system! WTF....

USA has an image issue, a VERY big international image issue. And all these so called "allies" are also to blame for that because they have also used us to do the dirty work, throw USA under the bus for it.

I blame the USA for being the moron letting everyone use and abuse us, and we need to be self accountable for our actions and not be the worlds send-off. And we did it for ego stroke.

But don't get it wrong. USA has saved the collective azz's of the western world in more ways than one can count.

If Denmark doesn't like USA saying we support Greenland's RIGHTS to self-determination, too damn bad!

Supporting Greenland's rights to self-determination is NOT a declaration of invasion, and I'm so exhausted of the BS spinning it to that narrative.

France supported USA's right to self determination, and without it it's doubtful USA would exist today. USA kind of has a karma debt to do the same.

Canada is no different. And fact is not that many years ago Canada actually had votes about splitting, USA didn't come up with that out of nowhere.

Again, USA saying "Hey, if you wanna join us, we'd be game for that" is NOT invasion/occupation. USA has every right to offer such, and if Denmark or Canada doesn't like us putting the offer out there then maybe you should, ya know, just earn those regions never wanting to leave them.

Trump didn't make USA 34+ trillion in debt. So let's stop the polarized tribalism that all bad in existence is from Trump, more or less any 1 person or group.

The reality is the USA is up against a choice of either insolvency, or hyper-inflation to delay insolvency which itself will end in insolvency.

I really liked the way you said this earlier James, and to me this is the big question. Is the US insolvent (or becoming)? If we are slipping into insolvency, perhaps we can reverse it, but change always comes with pain. If we are not insolvent, everything Trump is doing is unnecessary pain. If we are, it looks like messy attempts to resolve the problem.

To me we are insolvent--our national debt is 1.3-1.5x GDP. Only once has a country exceeded 1x debt to GDP and not defaulted and it took them nearly 100 years to pay the debt down. To pay down the debt by growth would mean the GDP would need to grow by more than 7% per year to keep up with debt with a balanced budget. If long term debt year goes back to 2%, then it's closer to 3.5-4% which is managable. Either that or we need to cut spending drastically.

We are insolvent. So are many countries. Try to press it though.

Go make your biggest customer(biggest consumer) & biggest borrower (trade deficits) insolvent.

And that same customer & borrower is the world's largest debt investment--USA debt is about 70% foreign exposed.

You cannot afford to. No country can let that happen.

1 Vote

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

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Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

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Quote from @V.G Jason:

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Quote from @Paul Azad:

Trump announced last night he is canceling/caving on the tariffs to China on 20 major products. Kind of everything that's expensive that we need, like smartphones to computers, to servers, to microchips, etc. This should cause the stock market ie MAG-7 to rise over the next week, SP500/QQQ Futures are already up two to 3 percent. And it should stop the margin calls, which were triggering the bond sales on the long bonds, causing the 10 year and 30 year to rise this past week as well as any repatriation of funds to Europe to buy German Bunds if European Money thinks Trump is less erratic.

So our long bond Yields should start falling soon, and CPI printed 2.4% on Thursday so this should help 10/30 yr yields come down too.

Hoping Larry Fink, CEO Blackrock, is wrong when he just said we are already in a recession.

As an active trader, this is all but zero impact on mag-7 or market itself. We have a global tariff war that kicked off, and got put on hold. Hold is not done. So we exist in uncertainty.

The market does not like uncertainty. It prices for downside risk in such.

Honestly the market should be 20% lower right now, it's literally being held up by retail. I see it every day in trading data, that is legit that it's retail holding things up. Funds are still actively selling off too retail.

We have 3 major things going on hitting the market; Tariff situation, inflation concerns, recession/stagflation concerns.

There will not be any sustained "recovery" and ride up until these 3 are resolved.

And now we have indicators of a 4th issue arising in bond side of things. Nothing is known as of yet other than there is some wonky stuff that started and if continues, that's gonna be an issue.

The biggest concern is corporate debt and how to refinance government debt. Basically, the bond market at this point.

You want to be in front of the CDS trade, and ideally should've been in November.

For the others that aren't aware--the problem the Trump administration is from the Biden administration. Not to get political as I'm not fan of our orange man, but explaining the origins.

Yellen did short term re-financing which kept earnings and revenues going strong, in turn leading to a higher equities market which is where we are starting from. Bloated equity market.

Scott Bessent needs to essentially re-finance $7 trillion here by end of year(20% of our debt), which Yellen forgot to do in 2020-2021 when rates were rock bottom low. It's basically complete incompetence at the CFO level. He's inherited an awful problem.

Retail bought the dip, there's more to come. No saying how much dry powder there is. If you're retail, you don't know when the bottom is in so you actually should buying on 2nd & 3rd leg of rally. Just some advice for readers, don't buy the falling knife. You will have a lower DCA & your concentration is better. I buy dips as a hedge.

Completely different set up; I hope I'm wrong.

International markets will have to cave, corporate debt that essentially leveraged in 2020-2022 like a DSCR to make it simpler for RE folks are coming home due(5-7 year terms). This is with higher rates & lower revenue, what does lead to? The obvious.

CDS are screaming, up 9x since election. And like I said with instruments before to @Ken M. CDS in 2025, like MBS in 2008, won't cause the collapse they're just an instrument to trade.

FYI, a lot of people wanted to refinance into long term debt, but Wall Street wanted a mix of things. Also, politicians were of two minds on the matter: Yes, we save money, but Wall Street short term paper reins in the “other guy’s” plans, whether D or R.

Treasury’s refinancing problems is only and solely a result of the market factoring in Trump’s tax cuts and spending increases. Announce no tax cuts, and the problem goes away.

So no, you can’t just wave your hands and say this is on Yellen. The yields operate prospectively, and they’re pricing in Trump’s policy, not Biden’s

That's an egregious take. That's stating that the outputs of Trump's administration is independent of Biden's administration inputs.

Yet the former point stands. If Yellen re-financed, we wouldn't be in this situation.

But the re-financing issue is solely on Trump...

Make that make sense.

"That's an egregious take. That's stating that the outputs of Trump's administration is independent of Biden's administration inputs."
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No, not entirely. The material outputs of Trump are tariffs and tax cut extensions. Those are in fact independent of Biden's inputs. The markets are reacting to Trump policies, not Biden policies. Biden's policies were already priced in well before Trump's inauguration in January. Inflation was falling under Biden, remember?

As for had Yellen refinanced, you ignore my point: She faced constraints both from Wall Street, and from the political parties, because the shorter term instruments give an early warning of what various policies will do. I absolutely agree, however, that we would have saved money. Too bad neither the Ds nor the Rs wanted to do that, for partisan reasons. So just as Republicans leave bad situations to Democrats to solve (e.g., exiting Afghanistan after Trump's surrender treaty), Democrats leave bad situations to Republicans to solve (refinancing debt in the face of tariffs and tax cut extensions, for instance).

With respect to the math being built into bond prices post-election because Trump had said he was imposing tariffs, you neglect the fact that nobody expected Trump to impose tariffs at the levels he did. They certainly did not expect tariffs to be imposed according to some inane formula totally unrelated to the terms of trade. Who knew that penguins were outsmarting us?

You agree that had Yelling re-financed we would've saved money. Yet disagree her fumbling it created any of the problems today, because of "pressure".

Riddle me this, if Yellen re-financed would there be this absolute, desperate and vicious mandate to re-appropriate the 10 year?

That is the root cause of it all. Trump's retarded tariff strategy & dogmatic belief to the TCJA can exacerbate these issues-- sure, I agree with that.

But the underlying theme is we mismanaged the debt from the previous administration. Now, those chickens are coming home to roost. If we had done that right, the starting point would've been lower and could manage these Trump "policies" better. Instead we started from a terrible point. And again, whose replacing the USD?

FWIW to other posters, trumps overall agenda to take peak "capitalism" at peak valuation to a mercantilism based economy has tons of growing pains & requires duration. If you didn't price that, you missed the ball. I'm sympathetic to his views of America first; just the execution requires way more delicacy than him going all in on the poker table strategy. And requires the following terms doing the same, which is no safe bet.

"Riddle me this, if Yellen re-financed would there be this absolute, desperate and vicious mandate to re-appropriate the 10 year?"

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I have no idea what you are driving at with "re-appropriate" the 10 year. Interest changes on 10 year bonds are the signal the market uses for 30 year fixed mortgages and a slew of other things. Yellen faced pressure from Wall Street and both sides of the aisle to keep the mix of bonds and bills close to what already existed.

And where do you get "absolute, desperate and vicious," mandates or otherwise?

So, no, I don't see how Biden mis-managed debt. You don't take into account the pressure of Wall Street and political parties. Facts don't go away by ignoring them. No mis-management.

As for replacing the USD, currency baskets, or different currencies for different commodities trades. The convenience of a universal reserve currency -- the dollar -- will be gone because Trump is such a flake. The Euro? The yuan? Dunno, but the convenience of one currency everywhere for all transactions will be gone.

As for poker, I think Trump is going for shock and awe in all his government dealings. As some wags have noted, the chaos is the point.

It's mismanagement to a T. And the chickens are coming home to roost now.

There's immense pressure to manage the 10 year yield now. How much do we need to refinance in the next 9 months?

And yes, shock and awe factor some for sure. It's Trump.

Unfortunately, shock and awe is a liability in the Oval Office, not an advantage. Trump will have to learn that on his own. My concern is that the Democrats’ spinelessness will come to the fore and they will enable him, which will only encourage him.

That's your concern? He knows he has them by their paycheck. That's not a concern--that is already a reality. A matter of when, not if.

Irrelevant to the wisdom of Trump’s decisions, you can but agree?

Once the Democratic party realizes their fates & pockets will be tied to agreeing to Trump; they'll fold like a lawn chair. The Democratic party though in the background really needs to work on putting a viable candidate out there for 2028. Throwing candidates out there for feedback during the Trump's volatile moments are the best test. Enough to where Trump doesn't see them as a looming threat.

Agreeing with Trump doesn’t help the Democrats. Personally I think the Democrats should refuse to work with Trump and call out his failings at every opportunity (look at the price of eggs). Then they need to put forward a fiscal and cultural moderate for 2028. Dems putting up an AOC just hands the Republicans another term.

You do it the American way--- agree with him, but then do differently. If you go on the offensive, he'll take names & create problems. Let him hear you talk good, that's all it takes.

0 Votes

Denver, Colorado

@Peter W.

To put you on some game about what I was talking about on another thread.

Pre-election 6 month chart. If Kamala won this would've tanked the equities market. Trump winning did the inverse. I got long CDS after Trump won--full disclosure. Very cheap bet, for a few hundred million you're paying .1% to put it on. Just as an insurance. This pays off less than 5% of the time, and maybe 1% of the time-- it's the jackpot. I'm betting on one of those two outputs.

YTD & 1M

To my point of 2023 with QE covering the reality of the market needing to get smacked:

I said it before in this thread and I'll say it again-- go find the (over)levered positions and you will make a fortune. Lifetime supply of money.