All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Scott Trench:

@Bruce Woodruff

I think this is a good push. I'll give two putbacks to my prior analysis: 

1) The yield curve could invert, and the market brace, for even two years, if Trump credibly brings a candidate for Fed Chair who will lower rates regardless of what inflation data reads, or the markets expect to be extremely dovish. Even if the current Fed keeps raising rates, this will result in the yield curve inverting again, in anticipation of the new Fed Chair changing things. I think that Jay Powell has thoroughly proven that he has no political allegiance, and is singularly focused on attempting to remedy the massive err made in 2021, and that he has, actually, done the least bad job by a central banker in the world from 2022 to 2025 (*hot take!).

2) If Trump removes the threat of tariffs, inflation will stop, and he can do this immediately and at any time.

This only somewhat addresses the points in your take, which I completely respect, but also respectfully disagree with. 

I believe that inflation already picked up on the threat of tariffs, and it immediately changed some firm's behavior in pushing up prices for goods and materials that might be affected. 

I believe that, excluding "immediate deportations" of folks who cross the border and are immediately sent back, that the impact of deportations is small, and is largely isolated to the deportation of convicted criminals in jail or prison in mostly red states. I would be willing to bet on a version of that, and will, in effect, through my real estate purchases this year.

Also - to be clear, I am not arguing that the policies will be "good" or "bad" in a more general sense for Americans. Just that I believe that they tend towards an inflationary effect on non-housing goods and services, and a slightly deflationary effect on housing by reducing demand for housing.

Trump’s economic policies will trigger a deep recession. Prices/rents will go down in real terms, and possibly nominal terms as well.

Not there, yet. But awfully close.

the correct way to emphasize tariffs was not 50% of trade indifference but shaped 10% tariffs on neutral needs, 0% on inelastic needs and 25% on elastic goods. With a slow, but emerging threat of increase if people don't come to the table to talk. Each country's three categories needed to be tapered to hit them hard. So not 25% on everything elastic. Example alcohol from France: make that 40%, make vinegar 10%. 

Prior to implementation the need to create infrastructure and financial support for foreign companies to come here. Some incentive, maybe dupe them to do it by offering some variable nonsense like subprime.

We all know why they don't come here; they stay there for their jobs necessary to remain as a relevant country, for their GDP, and for their needs and protect proprietary information.

Only America goes to other countries like full blown misguided "capitalists". To me, borders on a retarded strategy. Market share is a force if you lose control of the market I digress though.

@Alan F. copper has a 90 day lock, because go check 1yr chart . I cannot post due to technology incompetence right now. It's down trend, they're betting on it going down; how you hedge is important.

I'm not sure which post to add but the thread started by @Scott Trench for some reason says it's locked or at least I am locked out. The Trump one. Not here to talk politics, just strategy. Can someone unlock it for me?

That thread is going to reveal the details that a lot of us mentioned. Think RE will face some reckoning soon, but everything else is pointing to austerity.

Our Treasury Secretary just said this past weekend.

" Wall Street has done great, it can continue doing well, but it's main street's turn. It's main street's turn. And that's what we saw yesterday."

Tell me that isn't as clear as day. We'll disagree on the long term view of BTC but James, some others in the Trumpcession view like John & Henry Clark have been spot on. Its incredible the knowledge of this board. As a retired CTA and not to toot my horn, but one of the best CTAs too--some say since George Washington--the macro views is simply off the charts. Better than institutional money or "smart" money.

Something to continue to keep an eye on is oil like i mentioned before to @Alan F. , but also copper. If it breaks any support, forget the USA recession but global will need to follow especially after this YTD rally.

I hope we don't u turn and then throw Bessent under the bus. This is the right play especially since he inherited such a disastrous situation. Shame on "smart" money running the count thinking DJT 2025 is DJT 2017. Different game. 10 year down we go as I'm seeing leveraged RE as an investor touching 6% rates. Just need the absolute value to adjust a little in non primo.

Hopefully, Main Street does get back into it.

Financial freedom won't happen in real estate unless you are able to defy the norm & participate in outliers 

1) You bought in 2010-2020.

2) You bought or refinanced in 2020-2021

3) You've calculated inflation and notice every 12-15 years, you'll need 40-50% more. You've also set aside a tangible amount for medical care.  Meaning if you're 40, you're making 150-200% more monthly knowing the dollar will decline in value to be able to live to 85. Knowing health care costs maybe in the $5-7k/month range.

4) Your leverage situation is capable of handling two troughs; not just RE, but any debt. 

5) Your real estate is physically in shape(no major capex for 7 years +)

6) Your holding cash flow as 50% property reserves before profit. 

7) Your location is quality enough to deter vacancies and, not or, keep very good tenants with average turns of 3, 4 years.

8) You have another stream of income, or two, that can cover 125% of your debt payments.

9) You're insured, mitigated against legal issues & natural disasters appropriately.

10) You're able to save 15-20% of your current income for real retirement age 

If you dont have those things, you're not financially free. Quit focusing on this obscenely overused terms & just develop.

There's just a handful of people that post on this forum that can wake up and do whatever they want. Quit comparing yourself to them and compare yourself to how where you been and how you're going to move forward.

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

Quote from @Pedro Andrade:

The recent tariffs on construction materials are already shaking up the real estate market. With steel, aluminum, and other essential materials facing price hikes, new construction costs are rising 3-5%. This means higher home prices, delayed developments, and a tighter inventory.

For real estate agents, this shift could mean fewer buyers chasing new builds and more demand for move-in-ready homes. The key? Educating buyers on financing options and helping them see the value in existing properties.

For wholesalers, rising renovation costs are squeezing margins on flips, making it essential to negotiate deeper discounts and focus on rental investors who want cash-flowing properties. Creative financing and off-market deals will be more valuable than ever.

💡 Opportunity is knocking. Those who adapt quickly will win big. Are you shifting your strategy to stay ahead of the market? What changes are you seeing in your area?

 I personally do not see new construction sales prices rising - they are already starting to come down. Costs to build may be more expensive but it will probably eat into profits as we continue to see economic turmoil which the home price balloon from covid is starting to pop, especially in some areas. I cannot tell you how many new homes in Port Charlote FL I see that are in default coming through the loan tapes we see. I would guess we have seen atleast 30 in a specific area/neighborhood over the past month. This is an outlier but wages are not keeping up and home prices skyrocketed quickly which will come back toward a norm. 

Let them claim to need to increase prices. And let them try, it'll just kill demand and eventually their profits.  The consumer hasn't been able to absorb them, and are now in a worse spot.

This ridiculous belief prices go up linearly to the right will end if there's any more pricing increases without substantial supply shortage and/or wage increasing in non primo areas.

All tariffs are going to do is kill demand in elastic goods & increase inelastic good prices to where the average consumer is going to have a higher % of their income go towards the latter not former. For inelastic goods that can wait, such as owning versus renting, we will see it get completely frozen. 

Quote from @Paul Azad:

Quote from @Ying Tang:

It's hard to predict. Federal Reserve would not want to cut rates before inflation is under control. No way inflation can come down in short term given the new tariff in place. 

 PCE last week was 2.5%, so looks like inflation already under control. Inflation will come down a lot more if we get a Recession.

10yr yield = risk of inflation change + risk of GDP growth change

10yr yield rose from September 18th from 3.6 to 4.8 not due to rising risk of inflation but due to FED cuts stimulating GDP growth in a falling inflation environment
10 yr yield falling since January 14th from 4.8 to 4.0 now due to massive fall in expected GDP growth (Atlanta FedNow at -3.7% for 1st quarter down from +2%) and this is believed by most economists to be due to anticipation of Trump Tariffs crippling global trade, despite their increasing of inflation which would increase yields
So, recession or Trump-Cession is the fear. JP Morgan just raised recession risk to 60% for this year, 2 hours ago. Recession is not good for CRE, no matter how low the 10yr yield.
The tariffs announced last night were much higher than what he said on campaign trail or even put into effect 2 months ago, so market having to digest this today.

Also Stock Market and Bond Market are not that correlated, many people say when people sell stocks there is a flight to safety into bonds lowering 10yr yield. But in 2022, sp500 fell 25% and qqq fell 35% but 10 yr yield went from 1.5% to 5% due to rising inflation/growing GDP. Today 10yr yield falling due to fear of recession, not flight to safety. Also, Oil down 7% today due to fear of recession too. 

 The 60/40 play is a thing of the past. An allocation to gold and Bitcoin--yes Bitcoin-- will be the new norm.

I told @Alan F. in another thread closed a while ago that was oil was the play. @John Clark was on point which I agreed with about recessionary events.

Bessents whole play is to kill the 10 year yield. I am thinking & hoping with Bessent next to our fearless leader that DJT will let this equity crush continue.

The bond market continues to price stagflation. Very eager to see Q1 earnings then Q1 gdp even the draft.

Quote from @Scott Trench:

@Chris John I'm seeing quadplexes thhat are far cheaper per dollar of income today than they were in 2021. 

For example, I am under contract on a property $75K in NOI for exactly $1M. In 2021, this property would have sold for $1.2M.

While this, still, is hard to cash flow at a 7% 30-year rate, buying a property that used to trade at a 5% cap rate for a 7.5% cap rate is inarguably better value.

 Curious now that equities are in a correction phase and the opportunity to buy back in is getting increasingly attractive. Are you bidding deeper on MF given the optionality?

Anyone who has returned my inquiries is getting a tougher bid. All those agents saying wait till Spring has hurt them.

Quote from @Ying Tang:

@V.G Jason no actually I exchanged into llm, swarms, the one, A1z, Barron meme, doge.gov, which basically equals zero now.

 Sheesh that sounds like you literally fell for scam after scam. I always wondered who actually bought that stuff?

Appreciate your honesty. No one to blame but yourself.

Quote from @Ying Tang:

I lost some money on SOL. So no. Crypto is even harder to do than conventional stock markets. But today I learned another lesson...

You lost money cause you realized it.

Buy with some conviction & understand what you're getting into it. Discipline, patience and conviction. Hard to lose then.

Markets taking a beating beyond most expectations, yet Bitcoin is remaining quite resilient. Up 2% versus just catastrophic draws across the board.

It is gravitating away from a hyper-tech trading pattern. Should see a drawdown soon, I believe.

Adding to QQQ & proactively covering some shorts at these levels in domestic markets, and opening up some net shorts in international markets.

Usually when such quick, abrasive cuts hit the market there's something unexpected that breaks. Curious if that applies and what it is.  Maybe openai I don't know?

Markets taking a beating beyond most expectations, yet Bitcoin is remaining quite resilient. Up 2% versus just catastrophic draws across the board.

It is gravitating away from a hyper-tech trading pattern.

Adding to QQQ & proactively covering some shorts at these levels in domestic markets, and opening up some net shorts in international markets.

Usually when such quick, abrasive cuts hit the market there's something unexpected that breaks. Curious if that applies and what it is.  Maybe openai I don't know?