All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason

Been through many great, good, bad, and deplorable times, but it's all perspective. 

The great times made me really realize where I am & to protect what I have, the good times gave me confidence to go harder but realize how quick it can all go. The bad times humbled me, and the deplorable times allowed me to learn the most.  Bottom line is, life goes on.

“In three words I can sum up everything I've learned about life: it goes on.” – Robert Frost.

And of course, my quote.

"Fast solutions have slow problems."

Mitigating risk is almost the same as any city in the country. Obviously, some have more favorable laws towards landords and some have less, STR regulations, etc.

You need to risk at look differently than what the normal BPer subscribes to; fomo buying, $5k reserves, minimum down in ****** neighborhood, and underwriting for the best case scenarios.

The risk can be mitigated through a function, among others, in no order:

1) What you pay(entry price)
2) Exit optionality(any entry needs to be evaluated about how you can exit)
3) Proper insurance and legal coverage(LLC, HOI, lawyer, etc.)
4) Delegation of systems(property manager, handymans, gardeners, etc.)
4a) If rehabbing-- delegation of contracted work and actual contracts in place to protect you.
5) Financial strength-- If you don't rehab the place, you need to have 100% of capex reserves set aside, plus 3-6 months vacancies, and 1-2 months of lead time(to lease). If you rehab it, take capex reserves down to 50-75%.  
5a) Debt. How much debt is in the deal is a strict function of the risk you're taking. Make no mistake about that, as much as others try to do as little debt as possible and bank on appreciation. Money is not just math, it's behavioral too. If you don't believe me, watch how you behave when you are about to get your first property--emotional.

I didn't take out things like location, and some other necessities, cause they are all functions of the 1-5a above. Your exit optionality, for example, is a heavy basis behind location.

You need to find a new insurance carrier or buy gap coverage.

All my markets are noticing the same things:

In the best of best areas, it's a buyers market.(A+)
In good to very good areas, it's a seller's market.(B to A)
In average to awful areas, it's a buyer's markets.(B- to F)

Most of the transactional volume seems to be in the good to very good areas, and almost nothing moves in the upper or bottom end unless it's priced to sell.

Asheville has been dead and my worst performer, by a margin. I am trying to add to it, but my bid is pricing in the misery.

We just came off Helene and the city has not picked up. Like most STRs, I'm not a fan of heavy leverage. 

My thoughts & prayers with you and your family. 

Quote from @Twana Rasoul:

@V.G Jason

Yeah, we might actually be on the same page on some of this, just looking at it from slightly different angles/assumptions.

I’m thinking about the person who can qualify for a low down payment loan here in San Diego, but decides to buy their first property out of state instead, while still paying rent locally. If someone’s making $50K, sure, they probably won’t qualify here yet. But once they do, they usually don’t need a ton of cash to get started.

That’s why I’m not big on running straight into out-of-state investing as a first move. It’s more complicated, has extra risks, and you really need someone on the ground you trust completely. And no, a property manager or agent doesn’t count—I’m talking close friend or family member type of trust.

Buying in a random cheap market when you don’t really know the area can turn into a money pit real quick. I’ve met quite a few people here in San Diego who’ve gone that route and ended up regretting it. Most don’t talk about it publicly like @Becca F. has, because let’s be real, it’s not a fun story to share.

It's not that it's just not a fun story to  share, it's just the fact you have a ton of MidW folks here pimping it out. The Columbus Cartel is real life here.

The MidW gets tons of attentions on here, and it's very friendly on your eyes. To anyone who bites that likely is novice--therefore, they bite the dust. And they likely can't qualify to be vetted in SD.  Again, the average folks here seeks downpayment money from someone else to buy a property in Cleveland. They're way, way off for SD.

If you're really strictly looking at capital and extreme levers of RE growth; you go hard in California, Hawaii, parts of Florida. No HOAs, no deed restriction based properties, all slight to significant rehab depending upon city limitations with permits. Keep some vol pockets, depending on regulations, in STRs and mainly LTRs. You lever ideally no more than 60%, but no less than 20%, this differs than most assets, fyi. Keep a DSCR ideally at 1.8-2x. You limit diversification, and increase concentration. You play the risk game based off what you're paying & location.

If you're really talking dollar for dollar, but not everyone can optimize so precisely. 

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Mike H.:

How in the world does crypto make any sense.  Its nothing but a speculative play on an investment that literally has no value unless more people continue to buy it. Even if you could use it to pay for things (which you can a little but nowhere near enough places take it), the issue is how is it possibly better than just using a debit or credit card?

Your security for crypto is absolutely terrible.  If someone hacks your bank account, its insured and you get it back.  if they steal your crypto, its gone forever.  And these crypto exchanges have been hacked or they themselves have stolen money out of accounts.

If you like ponzi schemes, then crypto is the way to go.  Just time it right so you buy before the suckers go in and you sell before everybody else gets out.

But I just don't understand how you can possibly believe that crypto is better than cash.  Cash is digital too with the use of credit/debit cards or ach.  And its insured.

The only thing that makes crypto go up is to have more people want to buy it.  But what are they doing with it other than holding it and hoping more people buy it.  There literally is almost no value in using it.

bad actors hiding their money is a big % I suspect

You can't hide on the blockchain. It's transparent.

.
Your comment "You can't hide on the blockchain. It's transparent."


Now, that is Not something I believe. No offense meant. But it simply isn't believable.

The whole reason the blockchain got started was to launder funds and to do illegal things. Okay, let me modify that, as soon as it was created, it was used for money laundering and illegal things so people didn't get caught.

Ok then don't believe it. Just like this entire topic, you're just not educated on it. For others that are open minded and willing to try to understand, then read below.

Do you know what the blockchain is or even means?

The blockchain is a distributed, public ledger that contains the history of every bitcoin transaction. Anyone can download a copy of the blockchain, and it can be inspected to trace the path of bitcoins from one bitcoin transaction to another.

What you're staying is an exchange issue, as in not being regulated. Not a blockchain issue--it's literally meant to be the most transparent system. 

It is always 100% clear where the asset moved, it's not always clear if you can access it. That depends on the exchange. Not blockchain.

Anyone thinking their truly anonymous has learned the hard way their not, or due to international law has gotten away with it.

There's a reason we know the Lazarus group was behind Bybit and Heather Morgan/Ilya were behind Bitfinex among many others ---blockchain.

Your comment: "Ok then don't believe it. Just like this entire topic, you're just not educated on it."

I've been educated on Santa Clause and I don't believe in him either. 

I come from the tech world. I have a little understanding. ;-) I understand it well enough to reject it. I also understand Subject To pretty darn well and average investors shouldn't get near it either, but that doesn't stop a Facebook group of 150,000 novices from dabbling in it to their peril. Just because it (Bitcoin, Subject To, Psilocybin) is "discovered" does not make it safe or recommended.

The blockchain is a distributed, public ledger that contains the history of every bitcoin transaction. Anyone can download a copy of the blockchain, and it can be inspected to trace the path of bitcoins from one bitcoin transaction to another.

That's a lot of data to sort through to find anything.

Anyway, that data exchange would make it slow and unlikely to become useful as a functioning form of exchange for goods and services anytime soon.

 Much like James said, the movement of funds is transparent. It is pseudo anonymous, by default.

That's why as regulation picks up, it'll be a lot easier. US exchanges require KYC/AML & licensing. Of all places, the Cayman islands now require licensing(effective Apr 1). So if there's the regulatory levels at the exchange level, it's incredibly easy to spot the bad offenders. North Korea I don't expect anything anytime soon,

Like anything though, there's always crooks out there figuring out how to deceit the system.

In an earlier post, I put a chart up of sanctioned entities, etc., again just as more adoption takes place there'll be more structure. It's not an overnight process. 

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Mike H.:

How in the world does crypto make any sense.  Its nothing but a speculative play on an investment that literally has no value unless more people continue to buy it. Even if you could use it to pay for things (which you can a little but nowhere near enough places take it), the issue is how is it possibly better than just using a debit or credit card?

Your security for crypto is absolutely terrible.  If someone hacks your bank account, its insured and you get it back.  if they steal your crypto, its gone forever.  And these crypto exchanges have been hacked or they themselves have stolen money out of accounts.

If you like ponzi schemes, then crypto is the way to go.  Just time it right so you buy before the suckers go in and you sell before everybody else gets out.

But I just don't understand how you can possibly believe that crypto is better than cash.  Cash is digital too with the use of credit/debit cards or ach.  And its insured.

The only thing that makes crypto go up is to have more people want to buy it.  But what are they doing with it other than holding it and hoping more people buy it.  There literally is almost no value in using it.

bad actors hiding their money is a big % I suspect

You can't hide on the blockchain. It's transparent.

.
Your comment "You can't hide on the blockchain. It's transparent."


Now, that is Not something I believe. No offense meant. But it simply isn't believable.

The whole reason the blockchain got started was to launder funds and to do illegal things. Okay, let me modify that, as soon as it was created, it was used for money laundering and illegal things so people didn't get caught.

Ok then don't believe it. Just like this entire topic, you're just not educated on it. For others that are open minded and willing to try to understand, then read below.

Do you know what the blockchain is or even means?

The blockchain is a distributed, public ledger that contains the history of every bitcoin transaction. Anyone can download a copy of the blockchain, and it can be inspected to trace the path of bitcoins from one bitcoin transaction to another.

What you're staying is an exchange issue, as in not being regulated. Not a blockchain issue--it's literally meant to be the most transparent system. 

It is always 100% clear where the asset moved, it's not always clear if you can access it. That depends on the exchange. Not blockchain.

Anyone thinking their truly anonymous has learned the hard way their not, or due to international law has gotten away with it.

There's a reason we know the Lazarus group was behind Bybit and Heather Morgan/Ilya were behind Bitfinex among many others ---blockchain.

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Mike H.:

How in the world does crypto make any sense.  Its nothing but a speculative play on an investment that literally has no value unless more people continue to buy it. Even if you could use it to pay for things (which you can a little but nowhere near enough places take it), the issue is how is it possibly better than just using a debit or credit card?

Your security for crypto is absolutely terrible.  If someone hacks your bank account, its insured and you get it back.  if they steal your crypto, its gone forever.  And these crypto exchanges have been hacked or they themselves have stolen money out of accounts.

If you like ponzi schemes, then crypto is the way to go.  Just time it right so you buy before the suckers go in and you sell before everybody else gets out.

But I just don't understand how you can possibly believe that crypto is better than cash.  Cash is digital too with the use of credit/debit cards or ach.  And its insured.

The only thing that makes crypto go up is to have more people want to buy it.  But what are they doing with it other than holding it and hoping more people buy it.  There literally is almost no value in using it.

bad actors hiding their money is a big % I suspect

You can't hide on the blockchain. It's transparent.