All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason

I'm of the mind that the tech monopolies, those with business monopolies and moats will continue to have ROEs near historic values which is 15-20% so I expect them to continue to perform at those levels.  Part of the key of stock investing is determining which have deep moats for their business and which do not, as well as what the ROE for a variety of businesses are.  Once you pick the handful of companies that you like, you have to keep in an eye on new technology which threatens the businesses.

For me it's:
Microsoft, Facebook, Google have the strongest moats in their businesses. Although potentially Google's search dominance will be threatened by the new LLMs  (to be determined). 
Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, and ASML have the next strongest moats.
Tesla, Netflix almost no moat (which is why FAANG is no longer a thing).  And why Tesla, which, despite my belief in Elon as a businessman, is probably a worse bet than the rest of the magnificent 7.

The other important thing here, is that software is the best business to be in, the margins are insane like 70%+ which is why they are cash cows in a way that hardware businesses aren't.

One more point, the tech monopolies drive almost all of the gain in the S&P500.

@V.G Jason thanks for your response. I'm honestly questioning real estate investing as a whole now. Don't get me wrong. I learned a lot from this experience. But I'm now thinking maybe it's best to just invest in the market- S&P 500 will get me better returns in just a few years vs waiting 10-15 years 

Most investors need to do this but it never happens they just guess.  

Yes, if your active real estate is not beating the passive play why invest your life and money into the project ?  

@Rick Pozos yes, but there's still the $30K in walk in equity. Plus I plan to hold this for up to 4-5 years - by that time - the property would have appreciated more and hopefully enough where I recoup my initial investment . 
I've been any listing deals for what seems like forever and never made a move becuase I was looking for the perfect deal. From what Ive learned, the perfect deal doesn't exist and if I wait around trying to find it, I'll be on the sidelines forever. For my first investment, I wanted it to be as turnkey as possible or knowing that's I don't have the stomach (yet) for a rehab project. 

How "long" is "long term"? Plus, if a better choice exists, doesn't it make sense to choose the better choice? Plus, it's a matter of "how" you buy a property that determines what makes for a "good" long term investment. 

I'm currently acquiring a "good" long term investment in Phoenix using "Subject To" at 3% interest to cash flow a property with 10% existing equity for an investor from California. That make's it a very interesting "long term investment" even in today's market, especially compared to "long term" investing in California losing money every month.

I've always believed that cash flowing a property in Phoenix and seeing additional appreciation, trumps a negative cash flowing property in California. Just my personal experience.

Phoenix Housing Market Enters Correction Phase After June Brings Price Drops

The Greater Phoenix housing market continued its gradual reset in June 2025, signaling a clear shift in momentum from sellers to buyers according to a report from The Ravenscroft Group. Home prices dipped modestly, builders ramped up incentives, and buyers found themselves in the strongest negotiating position in years—marking a pivotal moment for one of the nation’s hottest real estate regions.

While not a repeat of the 2008 housing crash, market data shows a softening across key indicators, as elevated mortgage rates, seasonal slowdowns, and affordability pressures weigh on demand.

According to the group, the median sales price in Phoenix edged down to $449,500, a 0.3% dip from May’s $451,000. Phoenix’s Market Index—a measure of supply vs. demand—fell to 71, further cementing the area’s tilt toward a buyer’s market.

With 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovering around 6.89%, homebuilders are stepping in to maintain momentum. Many are offering interest rate buydowns into the mid-3% range, along with generous closing cost credits, appliance packages, and landscaping perks. This reality has made new construction homes particularly appealing to buyers, many of whom are priced out of the resale market due to borrowing costs.

Real estate trends varied across the Valley in June. Buckeye saw the steepest price shift at -8% while Fountain Hills and Phoenix proper each declined by -6%. Cave Creek transitioned into buyer’s market territory, and Avondale moved from a seller’s to a balanced market.

As of June, the groups says 2 cities are in seller’s markets, 7 cities are considered balanced, and 9 cities have shifted into buyer’s market territory. Outlying cities like Arizona City, Casa Grande, and Gold Canyon lean even more heavily toward buyers.

High recurring costs—such as HOA dues and special assessments—are driving buyers away from attached housing. The listing success rate for condos and townhomes dropped to 58% in May, the lowest since 2011. Manufactured homes fared worse, with fewer than half of listings resulting in a sale.

https://azfreenews.com/2025/08/phoenix-housing-market-enters...

 I was really curious a couple of years ago about how I would have done in an S&P 500 index fund over the past 24 years vs my real estate investments so I did a detailed analysis comparing the total return of SPY vs the pre-tax net income from my rental properties plus rental property appreciation. What I found was that my real estate portfolio returned 1/2 percent less than SPY's total return before factoring in real estate leverage and depreciation. After factoring in those two items, my real estate portfolio won hands down. The caveat to all of this is that I was conservative with my real estate purchases and leverage, and only purchased with the numbers told me to purchase.