All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason

Quote from @Jules Aton:

I'm not really sure what your point is because it is a given that with both RE and stock market there will be run ups and crashes. Historically I think a stock market bear lasts around a year on average? Varies greatly of course and I'm sure there are similar stats on RE as well. Unfortunately people who aren't financially stable or make poor choices will struggle more than those who are stable and make good choices regardless of market happenings. I've been around long enough to know that things have a way of working out. Humans are resilient, sort of like cockroaches actually. In life I hope for the best but prepare for the worst and avoid biting off more than I can chew. My asset allocation continues to be adjusted to reflect my stage in life and while I would love if things continue on the upswing I am prepared and actually expect they won't. 

Put things in context. Sorkin said there'll be a crash, doesn't know when or how deep.

I will take the same stance. At some point in time, there will be a crash. Not sure how deep or when.

Adapting now is what people are already doing. The ABC trade has been on all year.

There are a lot of similarities to the GD-- tariffs causing lack of trust, gold rush, etc. Dot-com with tech spec. GFC with a frozen housing market, etc. The fact is none of this is the same, the reality is the digital age has made things more transparent, quicker, regulations have changed how quick things move. We're seeing the ABC trade being put on. If you're not on it, you'll be left behind.

It's happening in plain sight. Look up Gold has taken the lead, Bitcoin has 8-9x the SP since Covid. It's already happening, it's not a "crash" directionally it's a dollar devaluation. 

The higher prices are just the illiquid, spotty purchases or primo properties. The reality if supply was a little more balanced this would crater, and it's trending back to pre-pandemic levels.  Prices are down about 5% on the median front.

This market is unique to old folks; one's who sell their primary in NY or DC, and buy all cash here. This makes things skewed.

I really love Beaufort SC. 

It's in Wilson, that's the problem.

Look at Raleigh, any house that isn't in a primo location all cash or low leverage, is just sitting like your pet rock. Most of America is. These are the times, either get creative or hold it longer.

Quote from @V.G Jason:

MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.

Well, ate that up nicely.

Two weeks until the next FOMC with an 98% chance of a cut, and a 93% chance another cut in December bringing us to about 3.5%. The ABC trade has been put on, the real draw of the legs usually fall after that.

The most hated saying in all of this is this time it's different. I think it is though. Digitization, people understanding how money works for better or worse, the fed always bailing out. I am thinking the directional view of ABC is right, but you need to keep certain forms of and holds of liquidity.

Very interested to see earnings season. We're see a greater and greater discrepancy in the economy and market, and the Gold trade has produced 60% YTD. This isn't necessarily a good thing to be right on this trade, it means there's something to follow whether it's hyperinflation or recessionary causes. Technicals are showing Gold should be facing some exhaustion here though, which usually means a leg up in equities but I would think Bitcoin first. 

Let's watch it. Real estate is about to be the most interesting to watch, let's see how the 10 year reacts to the fed rate cut. We're slightly under where we were pre-cut but that's counting into the Orange Man playing his Fri-Sun market mania.

Quote from @Jason Wray:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jason Wray:

Mel,

My advice since mortgage rates are falling fast go with number #3 and do a cash out refinance it's tax free. You also can get rates lower than 6.50% right now and you can also elect to take a 40 year or I/O interest Only for the first -3 years to help maximize the initial cash flow. Then you can refinance in -3 year and lower the rate or convert to a 30 year term or other ARM product.

The FED will continue to cut the Rates and mortgage rates are already in the mid to low 6's for investment properties. Primary Homes creeping into the high 5's and soon it will get even better but timing is key. You also want to buy a little quicker because as rates continue to drop we get more buyers to the market. Then we have more Bid's/Offers and some people over bidding to win which then also causes a trend on appraisal value increasing.

If you ever have ny questions feel free to check out my profile and reach out via message or email.  I am always Networking and helping other BP members avoid lost time and money!

Mortgage rates are up. Who are you trying to fool?

Fed cutting rates isn't correlated with mortgage rates. 

Worry about protecting the investment, and re-investing cash flow in other assets OP.

I appreciate your opinion/thoughts but I am a 20 year banker and mortgages rates are Down and will continue to fall over the next 36 months. It's a shame when people who are not in the banking industry make false comments as it really confuses the rest of the people on the forum. If for some reason you wanted to get into the metrics, the mortgage rates are down not just because the FED cut but also the 10 Year treasury is down below 4.09% the lowest since last year in 08/2024 and up over 5.01% earlier 2025.  The 10 Year treasury is a very big contributor to the 30 year mortgage unless we have a Jobs report or CPI index report that interferes including bond/MBS sell offs and auction performance.

FHA rates are pricing with good credit in the high 5's, VA is pricing good credit around high 5's, Conventional low 6's and DSCR 6.99% points vary on Fico 3YR PPP with 20% Down BPC for single family homes, and DSCR 7.25% LPC with 3 Year PPP.

FDIC Portfolio also offers 10% for single family investment property purchase with Fico above 700 and rates as low as 7.375%. Now if you say these are high rates you would be speaking in terms of compared to 2021 and 2022. Do not take this email as a battle of the Ego's I am replying so that a BP member reads rates are high and gets in accurate information.

You can look at any website mortgage news daily, Forbes, Yahoo and they all confirm but again I do this every day and have 20 years in the mortgage/banking industry. So I am not fooling anyone it’s only a fool who gives false information or speaks about a market who is not an expert. I see you are an investor are you referring to commercial, 5+ units, low loan amounts under $100K or someone with bad credit then Yes, the rates can be higher.

Average person buying a primary home, Vacation home or investment rental 4 units or under rates have vastly improved since 2024. You can verify this by asking ChatGPT or AI but again an expert. I am not interested in butting heads or an Ego battle I merely wanting to correct your last post about me fooling anyone with my post.

 You took this as exactly what you said you wouldn't an ego battle.

No need to argue with you and your 20 years of banking experience. Bottom line is your job is to sell these mortgages.  I'll remove my history cause you wouldn't stand a chance.

None of that matters, what matters is I have nothing to sell. Unlike you.

At some point it comes to the facts...

The 10 year is up since Sep rate cut, down relative to intra year highs, but up YoY(3.75 vs 4.1 current). The 30 year FRM has made almost no change YoY.  Quit making predictions, and focus on what people can operate with today.

Prepare, don't predict. 

Quote from @Jason Wray:

Mel,

My advice since mortgage rates are falling fast go with number #3 and do a cash out refinance it's tax free. You also can get rates lower than 6.50% right now and you can also elect to take a 40 year or I/O interest Only for the first -3 years to help maximize the initial cash flow. Then you can refinance in -3 year and lower the rate or convert to a 30 year term or other ARM product.

The FED will continue to cut the Rates and mortgage rates are already in the mid to low 6's for investment properties. Primary Homes creeping into the high 5's and soon it will get even better but timing is key. You also want to buy a little quicker because as rates continue to drop we get more buyers to the market. Then we have more Bid's/Offers and some people over bidding to win which then also causes a trend on appraisal value increasing.

If you ever have ny questions feel free to check out my profile and reach out via message or email.  I am always Networking and helping other BP members avoid lost time and money!

Mortgage rates are up. Who are you trying to fool?

Fed cutting rates isn't correlated with mortgage rates. 

Worry about protecting the investment, and re-investing cash flow in other assets OP.

MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.

Quote from @Alan F.:

Jules and Mike nailed it, I can't help but wonder what the real estate landscape will look like a decade down the road?

Renter nation. Go check the % of absolute millionaires pre-covid versus now and then check absolute millionaires renting(in big cities, naturally). Dollar devaluation has created a new floor for RE. 

1) big, metro cities like LA, New York, Seattle, etc, or exotic cities like Maui. You'll never really tighten the RTP due to politics and monopolistic structure. This is never going to be "affordable" again and it's almost best to rent here and invest elsewhere unless you're coming at a commercial level or have generational footprint(families upon families). 

I don't say that to be negative, but all policies will favor tenants and tax the investment; either you play ball with institutions/HNW or get the F out and sell to them. Back to the monopolistic point. Food for thought, go check the biggest buyer in Monterrey in the last 3 years near Pebble Beach.

Excellent store of values, likely the best hard asset outside of Bitcoin & Gold. Bitcoin has the vol and liquidity tho.

2) Larger metro cities with growth-- Houston, Raleigh, Phoenix. Buying right is key; location, value add, DSCR 1:1 min. That immediately creates an artificial floor for buyers. No longer HNW interest in this, it's now your high W2 Income($1mil a year that rent in SF, invest in Phoenix type). No law stating RTP has to tighten, but generally will in good areas and not in excellent areas. If you're investing in West U or Five Points, consider it a store of value not a generic investment so more value add is necessary to reduce cost basis and eventually money down.

Question is if capital is better in those big metro cities-- ask yourself the risk side of it(not just capital at risk but landlord laws).

3) Small cap cities. Cities with high growth AV not %(skewed) that could attract more than one industry. Ideally one that's totally red and not totally blue politically-- meaning you can build but there's scarcity. These are the one's that RTP is a bit wide, but not terribly so. Value adds are the play. Can likely put 25-30% down at be .8 DSCR, so 30-35% down and you're breakeven. The risk here is trajectory of city but you hedge that with capital outlay in the underlying asset price, value add and location.

4) Paper cities. The Clevelands, Detroits, Daytons that have higher spreadsheet value due to deteriorating growth. Like any investment, it goes to the next buyer. The issue with this it attracts one's that fancy cheap. If it's longer cheap, it's not worth it. Doom loop almost. Never worth the investment, and definitely not at scale. $1 million in Cleveland properties equity is like 5 houses so $250k. $250k is better in a value-add, good location, down payment in 2 spots in Raleigh.

2 or 3 is where people need to invest. Most of BP can't even invest in #4.

Focus should be less on REI, and more on their income growth(via job or whatever business they have). 

1) lying or intended to completely debunks any notion you have toward this argument.

i should not have to go further but will

2) if 20% off  coupons are the reason you expose yourself to liability with contractors doing your work(will make that point 4) or the deal is worth doing you're missing the forest for the trees.

3) agents or buyers look at what date it was bought or transferred versus when it's selling. if it's short, it's likely a flip and buyer beware. the llc vs individual name doesn't mean much to the credence of the grade; buyer speaking from first POV.

to add...

4) liability is why you do it, you're fully exposed. grabbing pennies, costing dollars.

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

I never call investing in something directly as passive. Now notes can lean on the passive side but there is a lot of work to underwrite and either originate or buy a loan. If it goes into default it’s very different than dealing with a non paying tenant So long story short / I wouldn’t call it passive but if it performs it can be easy to manage

Agreed.

Passive investments are a farce.

You invest actively, then keep systems in place to allow a proficient and diligent way of monitoring. Definitely a bit more dogmatic, but when things rip or dip you become pragmatic.

Defining rip or dip isn't necessarily historical but also relative. People need to apply these principles in everything.