All Forum Posts by: Ryan Moyer
Ryan Moyer has started 11 posts and replied 905 times.
Post: Tampa Bay Ranked #3 NFL Market for Airbnb – Surprising Gap in the Data

- Property Manager
- Orlando Kissimmee, Davenport
- Posts 920
- Votes 1,334
I think Tampa is a good market, but these generic articles are worth what you pay for them. The whole article is just some random blogger throwing power rankings at the wall. The "rankings" don't even align with the revenue metrics they quote in the article, and they don't even attempt to discern actual profitability.
Post: Perspective from being an Airbnb guest (also a host)

- Property Manager
- Orlando Kissimmee, Davenport
- Posts 920
- Votes 1,334
Lauren is spot on here.
This is Airbnb/VRBO's fault.
Like she said, hosts all hate the 5* or bust review system. Airbnb knows that hosts hate it, they will commonly mention it to me. But they think it helps guests because their thought is that hosts having to beg strive and refund to get 5* reviews will create a better guest experience (who doesn't like refunds for every small issue, right?).
The problem is it is actually a disservice to guests because guests can't tell what is actually a 3*, 4*, 5* property since they all end up rated 5*. In the hotel space, you generally know what you're getting and go in with the right expectations because the reviews match. On Airbnb/VRBO they don't, because hosts have all begged and refunded their way to the 5* reviews they have to get to stay alive, even if they have a 3* property.
The more GUESTS complain about it to Airbnb/VRBO, the more likely there will be a change. They already know hosts hate it.
Reddit is also full of guests complaining about the same thing, but none of them take it to Airbnb. Tell the OTA that, as a guest, you felt their tainted review system did you a disservice and makes you less likely to use the platform as a guest. Guests are what they care about and the ones who can initiate change.
Post: ⚠️Forget the STR Guru Hype - Here’s What Helped My Clients Buy TOP Short-Term Rentals

- Property Manager
- Orlando Kissimmee, Davenport
- Posts 920
- Votes 1,334
I think there is definitely something to be said for niching down to a specific sub market and becoming an expert on it. It sounds like you are nailing that with the Oregon Coast.
Post: Structuring STR management for my own properties

- Property Manager
- Orlando Kissimmee, Davenport
- Posts 920
- Votes 1,334
I'm not a CPA, but my first thought is you have to pay self-employment tax on your s-corp payouts, but not on your personal properties if you don't have them set up in a partnership.
So all you'd be doing here is creating an additional tax on yourself.
I have the same thing (management company and personal properties) and I run them separately currently, but I have considered putting the personal properties into the management company but with a 0% commission. This would be done just to simplify operations, as currently the funds all have to be kept separate which means my employees have to use different credit cards etc for the personal properties, and they often mix them up which creates a huge headache.
Concern there would be for material participation, as it might make the properties look passively managed to the IRS since they're being run through a management company (even though the management company is me).
Post: Did anyone attend the "Short Term Rental" conference in Nashville last week?

- Property Manager
- Orlando Kissimmee, Davenport
- Posts 920
- Votes 1,334
Quote from @Collin Hays:
The final keynote speaker apparently literally cried onstage - tears of joy - at how much money can still be made with short term rentals.
Would love to hear more firsthand on this. Perhaps my friend, a member of this forum, will chime in.
Sounds like a ruse.
You got bad info.
Bill Faeth, the one who organized the event, cried at the end because it is the last time he is putting on the event, and while thanking his marketing manager Chris who did most of the hard work to organize it and whom he considers like a son. Definitely was never anything about anyone crying because of how much money could be made in STRs or anything like it.
I was at the conference. It was very good. You know I am a cynic like you Colin but I give Bill Faeth a lot of credit because he is the only influencer that has built the majority of his wealth from strs AFTER covid, and who continues to buy and heavily cash flow on properties today, with today's prices, today's rates, and today's saturation.
Most of the STR influencers have a pretty simple formula for how they got rich.
1) Buy STRs pre-covid when prices and rates were low
2) Do a mediocre or even below average job managing them
3) Profit because their debt service is so low.
4) Pretend they're a genius and sell courses teaching people how to match their below average returns, which only work for them because their debt service is so low.
Most of these folks have not bought any new properties since 2023, and if they have they are hemmorhaging money on them and proudly brag that they are still great tax write-offs (for all the money they're making coaching people how to be a bottom percentile host).
Bill is the exception, he buys 2-3 properties a year, every year pretty much, and shares the financials.
It was a great conference. It's a shame it was the last one. It is more tailored for people wanting to go headfirst into seriously leveraging up and creating wealth rather than folks just casually hosting a property or two. And many of the people there are people that do exactly that.
@Ken Boone @Shannon Strickland bummer I didn't know you two were there, would have been fun to meet up!
Post: Panic sales starting to pop up in the Smokies: Approved short sales

- Property Manager
- Orlando Kissimmee, Davenport
- Posts 920
- Votes 1,334
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Collin Hays how did this ever make sense at $850k????
Honestly, I don't see how it makes any sense at even $500k.....
The property itself I'd score a 7. It's got some nice appeal points but it's really nothing all that special.
For lot I'd score it a 2.
There is a miss-match for me. It's just "a-place" in "a-neighborhood" that is in the area of popular vacationing..... No, that's not how it's done in my book.
You need to be in the trees, can't readily see neighbors, with views, something that feels like your IN the vacation not near or around it.
To me this place grabs me as an over-flow rental, not a primary inventory unit.
To me it's like getting a house across the street from the lake vs ON the lake. Sure it's close by but that is not the same by a long shot.
For me STR's have to have something of enduring intrinsic value in what it is, not just "a place" in "a area", that is what hotels are for.
STR are supposed to be an experience in and of themselves.
Am I just too picky?
Thats where one get's the security from in a STR; that it's something special, unique, an experience.
We were looking at a non performing note that was close to foreclosure sale. The buyers paid $2.2M for it and that was insane - no numbers made sense on this property. The noteholder was adament the property was worth atleast $2M. We had it valued at $1.2M-$1.4M.
The noteholder bid $2M at auction and took it back and now it just continues to sit. New homes similiar to this one and are nicer are now selling for $1.3M.
Ya-know, the most wow thing in that is you'd think a person who's had the savvy to achieve a financial position where they can readily bid and hold a $2m position on just 1 asset... you'd expect them to be so much more intelligent and not emotionally driven.
It's not to say there is no emotion, of course there is. Look, when the tariff implosion hit yeah I took a rather nasty hit in 2 portfolios. It hurt, I felt the emotions, $140k gone in literally hours. I sucked it up, and I started choppin wood. I let the intelligence side take over, re-group, do what I could down recouping, then played the bottom and way back up.
Bad things happen, sometimes out of the blue and it hurts, but there survivable. Chasing emotion is how one goes bankrupt.
I just don't understand when smart people do such stupid things.
Properties are not like wine, they don't get better over time sitting on the shelf. There like beer, they get really funky the longer they sit in the sun.
As a property manager in addition to STR owner, I would say fewer than 10% of the clients or potential clients that come to us ever put pen to paper to even try to underwrite the property before buying it.
People are just grabbing million+ dollar loans on faith, without spending the meager few hours it would take to actually underwrite the property.
I wonder how many people would take a $2M small business loan to buy a business with so little diligence.
Post: Panic sales starting to pop up in the Smokies: Approved short sales

- Property Manager
- Orlando Kissimmee, Davenport
- Posts 920
- Votes 1,334
Still not a good deal.
We've got a ways to go yet.
Post: Property Managers: What's your take?

- Property Manager
- Orlando Kissimmee, Davenport
- Posts 920
- Votes 1,334
This is a real estate investment forum, so not many people here with arbitrage experience, and frankly you likely won't get the replies you're looking for here as that approach is viewed very negatively amongst investors.
It's also something that is much more difficult to make worth it these days, as long term and short term rates have converged in many markets to the point where there is often not enough juice left to make the squeeze worth it.
Post: Fresh report from the ground in the Smokies, and some needed perspective

- Property Manager
- Orlando Kissimmee, Davenport
- Posts 920
- Votes 1,334
Quote from @Kyle Wheeler:
What stands out most to me is how a small drop in visitor numbers creates a large drop in occupancy. That's the nonlinear risk in STR investing that doesn't get enough attention.
It's absolutely insane to me how few investors understand these dynamics.
Even here on this very forum in 2021-2022, when I was arguing that this future was likely, there were SOOOO many people that were equating a 5-10% drop in visitors to a 5-10% drop in cashflow and saying it wouldn't be a big deal because they could give up that amount of cash flow.
Post: San Diego STR

- Property Manager
- Orlando Kissimmee, Davenport
- Posts 920
- Votes 1,334
Quote from @Dan H.:
Quote from @Ryan Moyer:
Quote from @Dan H.:
My highest occupancy STR has 6 nights of vacancy until the end of August. 2 of those nights are single nights so may not book. The other 4 nights will almost certainly book. So 2 nights vacancy over the next 2.5 months, >$400/day average rent for this period (not including OTA or cleaning fees). This is my best performing, but does show what is possible.
https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/743466187461028591?adults=1&...
Good luck
It's all relative though. I'm assuming you probably got into that property at a lower price/rate than current values, because I would think that is a $1M+ property and at $1M with 8% interest $400/nt isn't going to cut it even at 100% occupancy.
It is 2 units. That is the higher occupancy unit but the other unit’s rent is similar. Its adr is less due to lower occupancy in the high season.
In addition, I suspect using your numbers 14.5% rent (not including cleaning and OTA fees) to purchase ratio ($144,800 rent for $1m) for the year would do great.
This property was purchased Dec 2021 for $1.2m (this was $150k below appraised value). I did value adds. It is likely near $2.1m today. Rents (not including cleaning) will likely fall between $160k and $180k which seem low for value but reasonable for price paid. the two units together are ~1300’ so sustained maintenance and cap ex are small.
value add had cost of ~$120k (one unit light rehab other unit extensive rehab). So $1.45m for $2.1m valuation so $650k equity gain above costs.
Rents $160k (using lower end or my expected rent range), piti $79,584, so $80,416 to cover expenses not included in the piti.
It seems like the numbers have worked out fine.
By the way the other property I purchased in Dec 2021 has over $1m of equity over cost. When I purchased it there was large negative cash flow (rent was $6.2k/month). Rent now is just over $200k/year, piti $113.7k/year. Also seems to be doing alright.
I agree that since q2 2022, RE is more challenging. This is nationwide as the rates have increased everywhere. In Florida the insurance/HOA has also increased substantially. I would do either of those Dec 2021 purchases at today's rates, but granted my piti numbers would be much higher and therefore my cash flow would be much less. Note I would still have the equity gains. I suspect I would have very modest positive cash flow (I have not run the numbers).
Good luck
So long and short of it though, at current prices for a new investor coming in if they were to buy your place from you they'd be looking at a $2.1M purchase versus $160k gross rents. Yes it was a great bargain when you bought it before STR became super mainstream but that is true of all STRs.
Compare that to my property in Florida is only slightly off in gross rents at $145k, but if I were to put it on the market it would sell in the $700k-$800k range.
Now, unlike most around here, I don't have any particular love for Florida nor any particular disdain for California. I actually quite like California and would love to own there, and certainly wish I owned your house at pre-covid pricing compared to mine if I could go back in time.
But you can see for an investor walking into the market NOW and looking at $160k gross on a $2.1M purchase versus $145k gross on a $750k purchase and there's just no comparison, even with insurance factored in.