Did I luck out and buy in the right area? Sure. Rapidly gentrifying? Sure. But it's not over. That area is only getting better.
Originally posted by
@Mike H.:
I guess if you're comparing investing in Chicago to say the coasts, then maybe you could argue its a stud.
But if you were to name the top 5 or 6 areas in the country to invest in and then list your criteria, the Chicago/Illinois market would be the absolute worst of the bunch.
1) Financial condition - worst state in the country.
The city, county and the state are all in a world of hurt from a finance standpoint. This state has so overpromised on pensions to the govt unions workers, that there is no way under the sun, we're going to be able to meet those without additional increases in property taxes.
2) Property taxes are the #1 highest in the metro areas.
The only reason we're stated to be #2 is because we have all the areas down south with lower taxes. I've got houses in numerous towns across 4 counties. I've got a house assessed at 100k where the tax rate is over 6%. Technically its like 19% but Illinois does some crazy 1/3 thing to market values. So for simplicity sake, the rate is over 6% of market value. Go run your rental profits on those numbers.
And its not getting better - its getting worse. That was an early purchase in a not so great area. But I've got some in small towns in really nice areas and the tax rates in those are almost at 5% too. 5% on 150k house. Again, try running your rental profits on those numbers. Those rates are not going down - they're going up.
3) Lack of Population Growth. Chicago metro is one of the worst cities in the country for population growth over the last 5 years. I think it may have even been dead last.
4) Jobs. Illinois is an impossible position in terms of getting companies to come here. I saw it was listed on amazon's 20. But that was for show. No company in their right mind is coming here. Property taxes. Workman's comp rates. Business and personal income taxes. They're all fairly high and getting worse. And we're still not seeing a light at the end of the tunnel in terms of being out of the mess.
There's a reason that foxconn went up to southern wisconsin. They wanted to be close to chicago to poach some employees. But they did not want to be IN chicago or Illinois.
As it is, we're seeing a lot of companies jumping over the border to Indiana. Better taxes. Better home prices. Better business
5) Landlord laws. This is county specific. But Cook county may be one of the top 5 worst counties in the country for landlord laws. Evictions can take 4 to 6 months easy. If you can sneeze, you can come up with a delay for an eviction hearing. Sheriff's dept is the biggest bottleneck. Even if you get a quick possession order, the sheriff's dept is running 6 to 10 weeks out from actually getting the order to getting tenants out.
So are there areas in Chicago or Illinois where it makes sense to invest? Yes. Definitely. I think there are areas just about anywhere that make sense to invest - provided you're getting a great deal. But in terms of whether Chicago/Illinois is a stud or dud overall? Its an absolute piece of smelly MUD when you compare it to some of the other places to invest.
And we haven't even started on the crime in the south and west sides of the city that are eventually going to move out further and further as well. Just had one of the bloodiest weekends in years for murders.
Article in the Tribune just this week: More than 30 shot, 6 fatally, in most violent weekend of 2018