All Forum Posts by: J. Martin

Linda, Meghan, and John, 

Which speakers do you most want to meet?

**SCUBA DIVING**

"If you're going to be in Northern California, San Francisco Bay area or Monterey, there is excellent diving available"
Lots of info here>

http://diver.net/seahunt/info/sfinfo.htm

 Here are the Farallon Islands great white shark diving info:
http://www.greatwhiteadventures.com/farallones.htm...

Write off your flights and lodging and come out and enjoy!
It's the best weather in Oct here :) 

Another year and a half along, many major cities and states are reaching or have already reached record low unemployment rates, including the dot com boom and pre-crisis numbers.. 

*UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UPDATE*

As we lumber through the "4th"/last quadrant of investing in the latter expansionary phase of this economic cycle, I organized some unemployment rate data for some large cities and states in the US to see where they are in the employment cycle, relative to history. 

Most of these cities and states are at or near their record low unemployment rate, and we typically see a recession within 1-2 years of hitting these levels (albeit, the start of the recession is not identified until around 6 months later..)

TEXAS
The state of Texas looks like it is already in a recession, based on the increase in the unemployment rate relative to the last 5 economic cyles, over the last 40 years. Given, there are different stories in Houston vs Austin. 

CALIFORNIA
California has historically had a recession relatively shortly (1-2 years) after the unemployment rate hits or crosses below 5%, consistent for the last 3 recessions going back to the 1980's. There was a recession after 6% unemployment the time before that. Currently at 4.8% as of Apr 2017. 

NEW YORK
New York state shows the same thing as New York, except they get as low as almost 4% in each economic cycle, before reverting into a recession. 

Los Angeles County unemployment rate is already better than the last 3 economic peaks, including just before the financial crisis, and the dot com boom. Clock's probably ticking a little faster there.. 

@Jana Cain,

I don't recommend it, but I filled in the gaps with credit cards when I had low reserves. I'm sure there were others who were more responsible and saved it up ;)

@Meghan McCallum,
That would be great if you all can make it out from Chicago! I think I'm going to join @Brie Schmidt for the Great White diving :)  We'll also have a happy hour on Friday night if you make it in early! @John Casmon, come join us! It's a kick-*** time :)

@Stephanie Long, you're going to make it out again, right? 

@Lynn Currie, stoked you can make it out again from Austin! Looking forward to seeing you :)

@Udaya P., we probably won't have a firm agenda for another month or so. For now..

CONFIRMED SPEAKERS

J Scott, Amanda Han, Will Barnard, Brie Schmidt, Dave Van Horn, Brian Burke, Bill Exeter, and a couple folks from outside BP... Bruce Norris and founder of Property Radar, Sean O'Toole. 

There will be solo speaking sessions, panel discussions, and break-out groups. 

Sat & Sun, Oct 7 & 8, about 8:30AM to 5:30PM. 

Because we don't have the full agenda together right now (because we will be adding more speakers), the tickets are at their cheapest super-early-bird pricing, and will go up in the future.. 

www.sfbaysummit.com

Hope you can make it out! We had a great time last year!
@James Thiel, coming back to chat with @Arlen Chou and the rest of the group? 

@Eli Altman,

To clarify what @Robert Marston said regarding ADU's - these are an excellent tool - but you are not necessarily bound by the regulations regarding ADU's, since you said your property is zoned for two residences. The ADU law is designed for single family homes, to give them an option for a second unit, even when not zoned for 2 units.

Along that note, how big is your lot and how much room do you have, beyond the existing footprint of the concrete back there? Because construction costs per square foot drop a lot as the structure gets bigger, you should get better equity out of the build, and higher rents, if you build bigger. You may find it's cheaper per square foot for a bigger structure, even after pouring a new pad.. But you'd have to see. 

From what I understand, the savings from pre-fab in the SF Bay (from the people I've spoke with) are generally associated with time to build, and holding costs. This probably matters less for a smaller structure like yours (if it takes 6 extra months to build a full house, that's a lot different).

I like @Michaela G.'s suggestion of an RV for a quick and inexpensive solution to test out. Or a tiny home. But you'd have to do some research on legality if you're concerned about that. 

I like the container home idea, but have fun with the city! Earthquakes shouldn't be a significant issue for such a small structure, built correctly, anyway. 

@Katie P.,

See you in a couple Sundays!

@Amy Ranae,

First of all, check the HOA rules.
Most condos won't allow rentals under 30 days, and some have other restrictions. 

The contract for deed is a different issue, but be careful if you're counting on the airbnb income.. 

Good luck!

@Jana Cain,

Do you already have a specific plan, and just need to execute? 
Or need to figure out what the plan is? 

One great aspect of the Summit is hearing from investors with so many different approaches to real estate - from flipping, to short term rentals, note investing, new construction, out of state investing, etc... and then listening to how people got started and what they think the most important aspects are to getting started. It provides a great perspective.

I've also met a lot of people to bounce ideas off of, and ultimately mentors and friends at these events. Looking forward to you doing the same!

@Lane Kawaoka,

Glad you enjoyed the pics :) I'll publicize them better this year.. 

@Jen L.,

Bruce Norris will be out this year! I'm so stoked!!
I've wanted to have him out since the first year I put on this event in 2014. I can hardly believe it!
He'll be there to talk about what he's thinking for the future now, and answer your questions :)

@Victoria S.,

Glad you can make it this year! @Janet Voss had to fly back from Burning Man last year, so investors are pulling out all the stops to come and enjoy this awesome group of speakers and real estate folks to network with :)

@Lynn Currie, you're going to make it out, right? 

***Oakland Meetup***
@Katie 

@Katie P.undefined also organized a free Oakland Real Estate meetup on Sunday, 6/25, if anyone can make it out! 

@Troy Fisher,

I can't believe it's coming up already again too! And glad the folks that came out last year enjoyed it so much :)  Nice seeing you on my trip to Seattle, and I'll see you, @Elizabeth Colegrove, and @Stan K. back up there this summer. Bring another crew down from Redmond, Bellevue, Kirkland, and the rest! 

www.SFBaySummit.com for more info

@Philippe Dela Cruz,

I wish I would have started networking earlier!! Especially in person. 
BP is an awesome resource, as are a lot of the local investors on the site. 

I own some property in the East Bay and some other operations in Silicon Valley.
And know a lot of local investors here in the Bay.. Awesome people!

You should try to come out on Sunday, June 25 to the meetup @Katie P. organized, and meet some folks. 

There will also be a bunch of us meeting up in October for a big Summit if you're available the first weekend. 

Welcome to the site, and hope to meet you in person soon!

@Shaunak Deo,

Welcome to BP, and to the Oakland crew!
I own some property in Oakland and Richmond, and operate some other stuff around the Bay Area. 
There are lots of great local folks here on BP. Come say hi in person too!

@Katie P. and a bunch of us will be meeting up in Oakland by MacArthur BART on Sunday, the 25th at 4PM at Arthur Mac's Tap and Snack to chat if you can make it! It's all in the "events" section of BP. 

Hope to meet you soon in person! I think @Chris Mason above is going too.. 

@Katie P., 

Sunday, 6/25 meetup at 4PM in Oakland: 

https://www.meetup.com/REmeetup/events/240590210/

Here's the link for your meetup above. I put a link to this BP posting in the Meetup group also, and sent an announcement to the group. You should get it also.  
Looking forward to seeing you and everyone else who can make it out! I've been behind on talking with @Chris Mason also.. so looking forward to it!

Here's some of my travel photos and stories Katie! :)